Trav’s Cox Plate runner-by-runner guide

1. LIGHT INFANTRY MAN – Ciaron Maher – Ethan Brown ($34 with Next2Go)
Was in career best form last prep when winning the Northerly and the Australian Cup, but this time in has been well below what we’ve come to expect with three poor runs in Sydney Weight-For-Age races.
Those races have been run at slow or very slow paces and he’s struggled to get warm. Back to the Melbourne way and ridden to lead and make the pace he’s a possible improver. Even still think his absolute best ratings fall short of winning a Cox Plate.

2. ANTINO – Tony Gollan – Blake Shinn ($3.90)
The Queenslander was brilliant in the winter with dominant wins in the Hollindale and Doomben Cup. Race shape was against him fresh in the Memsie, when made to work from a long way out with a wide run. Since then he has had the pace completely against him in the odd Makybe Diva, and ran a brave race for 2nd in the Turnbull Stakes, again off a slow pace. Blake Shinn has drawn in an optimal spot to have plenty of options, he could take up the running, trail the speed or sit back and dash down the side. No matter how you look at the race you have to consider Antino a live chance and he looks primed by Gollan to peak on Grand Final day.

3. ATTRITION – Mitch Freedman – Craig Williams ($34)
Reliable horse for his connections, this guy, and his past three have been runs full of merit with excuses. He looks set to run to his best this prep and thought his run in the Hill behind Lindermann was terrific in defeat but even with an outstanding ride from Craig Williams, it looks highly unlikely that he could win a Cox Plate.

4. BUCKAROO – Chris Waller – Mark Zahra ($16)
Started the prep with two big runs in the Memsie Stakes and a runner up finish in the Underwood Stakes behind Sir Delius, when narrowly beaten. He looked set to match his ratings of the ‘24 spring when 2nd in the Turnbull to Via Sistina, and an unlucky 2nd in the Caulfield Cup, however he was plain as last time in the Might And Power when struggling to finish off behind Globe. On that run he couldn’t figure in the finish but he’s a much better horse than that and the strathayr surface at Moonee Valley might suit him.
Still, he looks a genuine 20-1 chance here and is up against it.

5. GLOBE – Scratched

6. VIA SISTINA – Chris Waller – James McDonald ($2,25)
Last year’s dominant Cox Plate winner, who looked genuinely unbeatable in 5 runs afterwards when taking the Champions Stakes, Verry Elleegant, Ranvet and Queen Elizabeth Stakes in the style reserved for the legends who have won this race. Her win in the Queen Elizabeth was the clear best performance this year by any horse in this country past a mile and if she runs to that it’s probably game over.

However, this spring she’s been proven to be below her best, you can argue myriad reasons why, whether that’s old age, carrying some niggles or the slow speeds of the races down here proving a challenge for her sustained speed.

Personally, I think it’s a combination of all of the above but I don’t doubt she can perform at somewhere near her best on Saturday.

The race could suit her with Light Infantry Man likely to roll along and that Cox Plate win last year is in the back of the mind.

Do feel she’s too tight in the market though given her two lead up runs.

7. TREASURETHE MOMENT – Matt Laurie – Damian Lane ($6)
Dual Oaks winner in her three year old year when clearly classes above her rivals in slowly run races, where she beat them for a turn of foot. She proved she was a true star with an exceptional first-up win in the Memsie Stakes when running a big rating that looked fitting of horses in the past who have won a Memsie and a Cox Plate in the same spring.

Unfortunately a bout of colic struck not long after and has forced changes to her spring campaign. She was good in the Feehan, given the setback when chasing an on song Pride Of Jenni on a leaders’ night at The Valley.

That run was sound, but she was off her best big time in the Might And Power when she got to Globe at the 300m but he ran away from her in the run to the line.

That was a concerning final run for a Cox Plate and personally think she’s well under the odds here on that performance.

Matt Laurie is a great conditioner though and he wouldn’t be running her if she hadn’t shown him great signs in the weeks since.

She’s a great query as to what she’ll produce, her best and she’s a live chance but I’m just not sure how you can predict that on last run.

8. AELIANA – Chris Waller – Hugh Bowman ($7.50)
Australian Derby winner from the autumn who has been good in all three runs this time in since that romp, albeit below the market’s expectation in the Turnbull when beaten into 5th. The run fresh in the Winx was enormous behind Via Sistina, ran as well as she could off a walking tempo in the Makybe Diva and the Turnbull again being run slowly probably didn’t suit her where she did a lot of work mid-race sectionally before hitting a flat spot and coming again late. She’s looked just fair in the parade in both Melbourne runs, but looked to have come on markedly from the Turnbull in her coat at Breakfast With The Best was the whispers from the yard spies and she also seemed to gallop well both Saturday and Tuesday mornings, so expect from that she only is on the up.

She gets Bowman on board and Waller knows how to get them to peak on this day.

Looks set for a very big run.

9. NEPOTISM – Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes – Zac Lloyd ($16)
Champagne Stakes winner at 2 years of age who hasn’t had much go right this campaign, but showed in the Guineas that he’s back on the right track.

His win in the Champagne rated nearly identical to a former Cox Plate placegetter in Castelvecchio, and that day he just outstayed his rivals on a strong speed. That race indicated he has got the ability to at least hold a spot in the field.

First two runs this prep he was just never in the hunt when back in the field. He did run an improved race in the Guineas when finishing well off a fast pace for a luckless 7th. Feel if he had clear air he runs a clear 4th and is challenging for a top 3 spot, and if that happened he comes here with much more respect.

In my eyes he’s crying out for the trip and love that he can possibly roll forward from a good draw. Yes, everyone says it ‘Three-year-olds have a good record in the race’ and that’s because the good ones do. He ticks two boxes as a three-year-old. He has a good last start run that indicated he’ll suit the 2000m and he can be on pace.

I marked him much shorter than the market given all that and think he will run to a clear new career best on Saturday.