Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 5 – (9) Casserousse
- Next Best: Race 2 – (6) Mr Miller / (4) Graffiti Tycoon
Race by race overview
Race 1
Bit of a plain 2yo handicap to open proceedings here at Warwick Farm. Big field with nice enough tempo on paper.
(9) Seraphox trialled up impressively before not quite aiming up in the G2 Todman on debut. Back to a much easier grade here and finds McDonald.
(13) Switch On draws barrier 1 and should use the draw and her tactical speed to land up on speed.
(5) Fawlty Affairs peaks third-up after a plain last start run. Go back to the first-up run and the form around Drumfire reads well.
(12) Raise The Bar looks a likely improver 2nd up.
Selections:
(9) Seraphox
(13) Switch On
(5) Fawlty Affairs
(12) Raise The Bar
Suggested Bet: Seraphox WIN
Race 2
Cracking Maiden this, with good speed expected up front, though I do expect this race to change complexion post-scratchings.
Keen to attack this race with a two-bet play, with both (6) Mr Miller and (4) Graffiti Tycoon trialling up exceptionally well. Both look above average and get Sunday’s two top jockeys aboard.
(1) Above The Law comes through a very strong rating first-up contest and has a smart fitness advantage. Slightly sticky map but will roll forward.
(12) Mumbai Maharani races on the quick backup after a much improved second-up run.
Selections:
(6) Mr Miller
(4) Graffiti Tycoon
(1) Above The Law
(12) Mumbai Maharani
Suggested Bet: Mr Miller / Graffiti Tycoon WIN
Race 3
Smaller race here with not a whole lot of speed expected up front.
(8) Oso Spirited draws very well here in gate 3, he’ll land on speed and look to run these along. Up to 1600m is a nice tick now.
(4) Natoya maps as a very intriguing runner, 115 days off with two trials to bring her fitness up. 1600m suits but she may want this run under her belt, so we will lean on the market late.
(2) Mornington Pier can mix his form, though the rise to 1600m is the slight concern.
(1) Malabar rounds out the numbers but looks to be a place chance only.
Selections:
(8) Oso Spirited
(4) Natoya
(2) Mornington Pier
(1) Malabar
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4
The staying event of the program.
Happy to follow the money in with the Waller x McDonald combination in (8) Mirzann. Smart inside draw, peak fitness and comes through strong rating races.
(6) Cormac T was good last start off the back of a freshen. I expect him to take nice improvement off that effort while also being aided by the claim here too.
(3) Stylebender has been a model of consistency this preparation, has no issue at the trip and handles wet or dry.
(10) De Louviere comes off a strong last-start win, rises in grade here and will appreciate sticking to the longer 2200m-plus trips.
Selections:
(8) Mirzann
(6) Cormac T
(3) Stylebender
(10) De Louviere
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5
Cracking 1000m contest with huge amounts of speed expected up front.
I’ve been very impressed by the recent trials of (9) Casserousse. She showed above-average ability last preparation and looks to have come back even better here. Smart gate and should get a lovely smother in behind the speed.
(6) Vella’s Best is an intriguing runner off the back of a dominant first-up win. Good draw and has upside to come.
(2) Shirvington maps sticky from gate 7 with this speed drawn inside. The 1000m is kind enough but he’ll likely be caught wide.
(4) Nesrine gets a senior jockey on second-up off a solid fresh win and is in the mix.
Selections:
(9) Casserousse
(6) Vella’s Best
(2) Shirvington
(4) Nesrine
Suggested Bet: Casserousse WIN
Race 6
Keen to see (4) Metallic Cat race on the week backup after a dominant last-start win. She stays at 1300m, draws to get a soft lead and keeps Clark in the saddle. That’s a nice recipe and she is clearly on top.
(1) Deep Pleasure looks to be the only danger on paper. She has had back-to-back impressive trials, finds James and is very much suited over the 1300m fresh.
(7) Shotgun Bella is next best off a smart last-start win but will find this harder.
(2) Vienna Vixen should be rock hard fit and has drawn well.
Selections:
(4) Metallic Cat
(1) Deep Pleasure
(7) Shotgun Bella
(2) Vienna Vixen
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
Intriguing event with plenty of form lines coming from all over the shop.
(10) Castlejohn ran up a fast tempo first-up, putting up an exceptionally strong rating. He looks even better suited over 1200m now second-up and should again be positive enough from the draw.
(5) Call Me Gorgeous blew away his rivals in his return to Australia, has 20 days between runs now and looks suited here. The only knock is the possibility of a flat second run off that long layoff.
(8) Young Mister Grace was too bad to be true first-up. He’s much better than that and can improve now second-up.
(4) Bryant is next best coming off a last-start win.
Selections:
(10) Castlejohn
(5) Call Me Gorgeous
(8) Young Mister Grace
(4) Bryant
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 8
Wide-open end to the program here.
(3) Hanau comes off an impressive win last start, cementing a solid form line around the likes of Mal Coupe. Smart use of the claim and can win again.
(1) Formal Display was dominant first-up at Wyong. This is tougher, but he is another aided by a 3kg claim.
(4) Emirate is an intriguing runner third-up. Smart barrier, keeps James and will love the sting out of the track.
(9) Brigidine Gal should improve second-up. She gets a smart map with Nash on and will enjoy sticking to the home deck.
Selections:
(3) Hanau
(1) Formal Display
(4) Emirate
(9) Brigidine Gal
Suggested Bet: No Bet
