Will Elford is back with the latest edition of Weekend at Bot’s, using Form King data to assess how the races were run, what level of performance they produced and which horses are worth following out of Caulfield.
How to read the ratings
Throughout Weekend at Bot’s, you’ll see Form King data used to break down how each race was run and the level of performance produced. Here’s a quick guide to the key metrics:
- LD-S-8: Leader from the start to the 800m.
- LD-8-4: Leader from the 800m to the 400m.
- LD-4-F: Leader from the 400m to the finish.
- WNR-4-F: Winner from the 400m to the finish.
- WFA: Overall performance rating on a Weight-For-Age scale.
- WTS: The winner’s final rating at the weights carried.
How the track played
David Pfundt (Form King):
“Winds were South Easterly around 30kmh, with gusts up to 40kmh. The 3 Chute races have played like a Fast 2 track, with that SE wind behind them the whole way. The 6 Circle races played like a Good 3. 16/27 place-getters found fence in run or OSL (13, 3). 5 of 9 winners found the fence in run, but other winners were 3 wide. PIR wise, 4 leaders on the turn won, and 7 of 9 winners were in the top 5 by the 400m and only Regal Ambition and Jimmysstar came from 6th and 12th respectively.”
“I am calling it a fair track – it’s never a disadvantage to be in the first 3 pairs at Caulfield, and on truly biased days you don’t see winners in the 3 wide line (forward and back), and the fence.”
Race 1: LD-S-8: +0.5L, LD-8-4: +2.6L, LD-4-F: -2.8L, WNR-4-F: -2.8L, @WTS: 89, @WFA: 91.9
Threads was pushed along by Shinn to settle prominently, perhaps the winning move. At this stage of the day, the wind was ferocious, and as a southerly, there was no doubt that it significantly aided Threads.
Punters identified the favours he’d encounter; Threads firmed from $26 into $12.5 on the exchange.
After the opening half-furlong, the pace increased significantly.
Between the 1000-metre and 400-metre marks, Threads raced 3.5 lengths faster than par, utilising the tailwind before entering the straight.
He finished in 2.8 lengths slower than standard over the remaining 400 metres, but the race had been run and won in that middle section, and he could not be caught.
The biggest disappointment of the race was undoubtedly Tales Of Time, who was well backed, starting $2.60 on the exchange. He was slow to begin and never looked likely. There’s certainly talent yet to be uncovered, but we mightn’t see it until next Autumn.
Race 2: LD-S-8: +4.5L, LD-8-4: +0.1L, LD-4-F: -2.2L, WNR-4-F: +0.5L, @WTS: 92.1, @WFA: 98.6
Regal Ambition toppled Pretty Baby in a Thousand Guineas shaping Jim Moloney. She was slow to begin and settled last of the nine before unravelling her sprint and rendering herself Guineas favourite.
The pace was fast; By Choice and Grinzinger Heart made the running, racing 4.5 lengths faster than par up until the 800-metre mark.
Regal Ambition and Michael Dee decisively quickened at the 600-metre mark, circumnavigated the field, and went on to draw away and win by a length.
She’ll stay as far as a mile and a quarter; this was an excellent win, and this will be as short as her distance range will go. She’s justifiably Thousand Guineas favourite over Pretty Baby. These are two very good fillies and are very much clear of the rest of the group, at least in Victoria.
With a figure of 98.6, she’d be the best Thousand Guineas winner in recent years already, and there remains improvement. If her connections were bold, and she continued to progress, perhaps she would not look out of place in a Cox Plate under no weight at all.
Pretty Baby regressed on her form prior. Many will quickly draw a conclusion that it was because of the quick ground and that she is a wet tracker. That’s ridiculous, though; how could you possibly come to such a conclusion based on one race? Perhaps she is better on wet ground, but I will wait for further evidence before making assumptions.
It wasn’t as if she was too far from her best form; she ran 97.5 and ran to 100.3 last start. She might’ve simply had a bad day, and I think she may have been beaten by one better.
Race 3: LD-S-8: -22.6L, LD-8-4: +4.5L, LD-4-F: +1.3L, WNR-4-F: +1.3L, @WTS: 95, @WFA: 95.8
Royal Supremacy led and won in terribly similar order to when he won the Q22. To the 1000-metre mark, Mark Zahra and Royal Supremacy were able to race more than 23 lengths behind par, and from that point increased the speed down the back with the assistance of the tailwind.
Due to having such an easy lead, he was able to maintain his speed above par, which meant he could not be caught by the chasers.
With a rating of 95.8, there is still improvement to come from him this preparation, and perhaps he can reach his peak in the Caulfield Cup, which is his logical next target. Can he win a Caulfield Cup? I doubt it; he’s a typical 30/1 chance in that race, but perhaps this year is not as strong as others.
See That Storm was well backed but underperformed and looks ready for a spell. He settled in the one-out and one-back position and could not figure once the sprint went on.
Darkbonee was easy to back before the off but maintained favouritism, just. He raced three wide without cover throughout and was too far back to figure in the finish. Perhaps it’s time to reset and bring him back in the autumn. Their attempt at winning his way into the Caulfield Cup has now become redundant. Perhaps they will push on to the Coongy Cup. That’s a great race for him.
Race 4: LD-S-8: -1L, LD-8-4: -2.9L, LD-4-F: +4L, WNR-4-F: +5.1L, @WTS: 91.9, @WFA: 96.6
The Scarborough Stakes was quite significantly dominated by the on-pace quartet, finishing first, second, third, and fifth, mostly because of the pace.
With a strong tailwind at their back, Scintillation, I Am Aria, and Over The Bridge were allowed to race five lengths slower than par between the 1000 and 600. They were unbeatable from that point on, as they were essentially on fresh legs before even making a turn for home.
Chayan, who was second favourite, was slow to begin, and after five metres her race was over. She finished in the meeting’s fastest last 400 metres and was still beaten three lengths. There was nothing she or James McDonald could have done from that point onwards.
Over The Bridge strides as if she will be better suited over a mile than six furlongs, so there’s plenty of improvement yet to be seen. Of course, she will not run in the Thousand Guineas, at least I very much doubt it. It’s possible, though; we have seen Maher do some extraordinary things, and it would add plenty to the race.
She has run to a figure of 96.6, which is behind Regal Ambition, but if they were to race, there’d be not much in it. Two very talented fillies. This could be a good year for three-year-old filly milers.
Sunbliss is highly talented and is not fast enough over 1200 metres but got warm over the concluding furlong. The Vanity Stakes will be a terrific race for her during Cup week, perhaps the Sandown Guineas toward the back end of the carnival.
I’d be forgiving of Chayan, but simultaneously would reduce any prior expectation of her. She was expected to be the best of her crop in the Slipper. She started favourite. She’s now just a good three-year-old filly who might win the Red Roses if she’s lucky.
Race 5: LD-S-8: +0.7L, LD-8-4: +4.3L, LD-4-F: -3.5L, WNR-4-F: -3.5L, @WTS: 100.7, @WFA: 100.7
Pride Of Jenni was back as if she never left, winning a third Feehan Stakes. It was not in the order of her previous successes in this race; she ran 103.8 last year and 104.3 in 2024.
She was first-up, as well, and she did improve second-up last campaign. She should absolutely target a third Empire Rose; she won it last year with a figure of 101.3, so she’s more than capable of winning it again, and sits atop the market alongside Autumn Glow, who will surely only run.
The pace was below par over the first 600 metres, racing 3.3 lengths slower than par, but then drastically quickened between the 1000 and 600 metres, with an 8.6-length enhancement in pace. She created separation, and she was the only runner who could cope with such pressure; she comfortably handled this field and drew clear to win well.
Treasure The Moment returned to form after a terrible run last start.
She remains on a Caulfield Cup path. That seems optimistic; she is an Oaks winner, but both Oaks were awfully slowly run. She won’t stay a mile and a half with genuine pressure.
Unfortunately, it seems as though Mr Brightside’s tenure at the top is coming to an end. I’ve had the privilege of having a very small involvement in his career through my relationship with two of his owners, my great mates, Adrian and Tyson. Thank you, Mr B.
Race 6: LD-S-8: -2.3L, LD-8-4: -0.3L, LD-4-F: +0.4L, WNR-4-F: +1.9L, @WTS: 87.7, @WFA: 92.6
The Stutt Stakes was won narrowly by Diameter, returning to the mile and racing into Guineas contention… sort of.
He was third in the Champagne Stakes as a two-year-old and is now a Group 2-winning colt. The issue, however, is that he is not particularly good. This is a terrible rating. 92.6 is a long way from where the Guineas will be won. Warwoven, who is favourite, ran to 104.6 in the Golden Rose.
If the Guineas winner is in this race, I’ll give it away. Terrible race.
The one caveat is that Russian Rock will stay a mile and a quarter and more than likely a mile and a half. The Valley Vase and the Derby are potential options for him, and he finished the race very well over the last 200 metres.
Race 7: LD-S-8: -8.7L, LD-8-4: +4.3L, LD-4-F: +0.6L, WNR-4-F: +2.6L, @WTS: 97.2, @WFA: 95.7
Changing Colours gave Lucy Yeomans a first Group 2 success, returning a figure of 95.7.
The early pace was terribly slow, but drastically increased from the 800-metre mark. Sass Appeal, who was backed off the boards, led the race and was well rated by Lane, but his mount could not cope with Changing Colours’ closing speed as she drew clear to win the Stocks Stakes nicely.
She will either run in the Empire Rose or the Toorak Handicap next.
The Empire Rose is an excellent race for her, and it would be fantastic to see Yeomans win a Group 1 so early in her career. She’s an extraordinarily good young trainer and will win many good races; I have no doubts about that.
From the 800-metre mark, Changing Colours finished nine lengths faster than par, winning with the implication that she could well and truly improve further. She would never start favourite in the Empire Rose as long as Pride Of Jenni is there, but will be in the market nonetheless and possesses an excellent winning chance.
Sass Appeal is a serviceable mare but is not as good as she was forecast to be. She will win races, of course, especially because of her racing pattern, but not at the highest level.
Too Darn Discreet is racing very well. She is made for the Matriarch Stakes, and if she is there, which I’m sure she will be, she must be favourite.
Race 8: LD-S-8: -0.6L, LD-8-4: +1.2L, LD-4-F: -1.6L, WNR-4-F: +3.3L, @WTS: 101.5, @WFA: 101.5
Jimmysstar returned to form in what was a substandard Manikato Stakes.
Perhaps there will be many that declare Jimmy ‘back’, and that blinkers have improved him, but I’d contend that he has run to essentially the same figure he did when second in the Kingsford Smith Cup.
It’s difficult not to get caught up in the romance of racing; he’s an excellent racehorse, and he looked utterly dominant, which he was, by the way; I’m not disputing that, but he’s still quite a ways away from his brilliant best. He ran to 101.5 to win on Sunday, which is well below his peak of last spring, running 105 in the Russell Balding.
He’s always been capable of this figure; I don’t believe the blinkers switched him on, or anything like that. He just raced a pretty terrible group of sprinters, and he was much too good. Extragalactic and Charm Stone are serviceable mares; they’re very good, but they’re 100/1 in a genuine Group 1 sprint.
Australian sprinting hasn’t been this terrible in a long time. It’s so bad that there is a seven-furlong horse, racing a length or two from his best, still belting a Manikato Stakes field. Embarrassing.
Jimmysstar will run in the Everest next start and has no hope of beating Ka Ying Rising.
Beiwacht was kept very firm, far firmer than I had thought he might be, but quickly folded once the pressure became too much. He is not a sprinter. Seven furlongs and perhaps a mile, for him.
Race 9: LD-S-8: +3.4L, LD-8-4: +5.1L, LD-4-F: -5.2L, WNR-4-F: -5.2L, @WTS: 96.5, @WFA: 95.8
Regal Zeus may have appreciated firmer footing and returned to his prior peaks to win the Testa Rossa Stakes.
The early section was run quickly and then further enhanced through the middle section, as was the theme throughout the day with the tailwind down the side.
They finished very slowly, and the two well-fancied runners were well beaten. Perhaps they can improve from the race, and the frantic nature of the pace should bring them on in condition. Though I’m not sure there will be too many Group race implications from this race.
