Will Elford is back with the latest edition of Weekend at Bot’s, using Form King data to assess how the races were run, what level of performance they produced and which horses are worth following out of Sandown.
How to read the ratings
Throughout Weekend at Bot’s, you’ll see Form King data used to break down how each race was run and the level of performance produced.
Here’s a quick guide to the key metrics:
LD-S-8: Leader from the start to the 800m.
LD-8-4: Leader from the 800m to the 400m.
LD-4-F: Leader from the 400m to the finish.
WNR-4-F: Winner from the 400m to the finish.
WFA: Overall performance rating on a Weight-For-Age scale.
WTS: The winner’s final rating at the weights carried.
How the track played – David Pfundt (Form King)
25-30kmh Westerly winds, tending south-westerly around 20kmh in the middle of the card. The track was officially a Heavy 8, and while the times of the 3 x Chute races agreed with that assessment, they faced a head-wind most of the way. The Circle races came out on the back end of a Slow 6. With Stewards only able to assign 1 number to the course, it’s understandable that Heavy 8 was chosen, although an upgrade to a 7 might have been a reasonable compromise. \
Pattern-wise, 6 of 9 winners and 14 of 27 top 3 finishers raced on the fence/inside of the field. I counted Gold Coast Belle in these as she was on the fence before moving off mid-race. All winners bar Freedom Rally were already in the top 3 by the 400m marker. We don’t have to look too far to label this meeting with an “Up and In” track pattern – almost every race reinforced that scenario. Because the fence was superior going, it was very difficult to peel wider and out-sprint something that was on the fence. I’m going to be forgiving to horses that settled back and wide and made credible wider runs in the straight.
How the races were run and won:
Race 1: LD-S-8: +4L, LD-8-4: -1.4L, LD-4-F: -0.8L, WNR-4-F: -0.8L, @WTS: 87.1, @WFA: 92.8
Godolphin quinelled the opening race, with Judas Tree fending off Milson’s Point and Commit in a three-way finish.
Judas Tree led at a strong early pace, running four lengths faster than typical to the 800-metre mark. McNeil then eased the pace by around a length and a half before the sprint went on over the concluding two furlongs. He was headed in the straight but fought back strongly to win nicely.
He would make a serviceable 30/1 chance in a Caulfield Guineas and should follow that path, provided Tony and Calvin McEvoy can maintain his level until then.
The market was badly wrong in this instance. Judas Tree was easy to back throughout the week before eventually starting $4.50 on the exchange.
His drift coincided somewhat with the heavy support for Vallice, who firmed considerably to start favourite. The market expected significant improvement from him, likely due to his first attempt over 1400 metres. He was underwhelming and failed to meet those expectations, but, interestingly, the market thought so highly of him.
Punters can use that information when assessing him in future starts.
Race 2: LD-S-8: +0.8L, LD-8-4: -2L, LD-4-F: +2.5L, WNR-4-F: +3.3L, @WTS: 94, @WFA: 95.7
Race two was somewhat marred by the late scratching of the well-supported favourite, Cruiserweight, although perhaps it would not have mattered, with Buccleuch winning commandingly.
Outrageous or not, Buccleuch may be a Toorak Handicap flyer at odds on October 10. It was mentioned on the broadcast that he had undergone tie-back surgery during his break, and it appears to have worked sensationally, with him producing a new career peak first-up.
The pace was even, giving Buccleuch an excellent opportunity to flex his muscles over the final 400 metres. The 400-to-200-metre split was particularly impressive.
He had Observer’s scalp as a two-year-old but failed to reproduce that level of form as a three-year-old. He has now eclipsed that figure and done so as a four-year-old. He can race in a BM90 next start and work his way through the grades. Perhaps optimistically, a Toorak Handicap carrying the minimum weight may be his chance to land a race of that ilk.
Race 3: LD-S-8: -11.9L, LD-8-4: +0.8L, LD-4-F: -0.5L, WNR-4-F: +0.4L, @WTS: 92.6, @WFA: 88.4
The staying event was won by Nearco Frod, who has now won his last four races, all between 12 and 13 furlongs.
He has been remarkably consistent, running between 92.5 and 94 in each of those four victories. He should be priced accordingly, moving into the Archer Stakes on September 12, which is the logical progression after this performance.
Think Giant raced keenly and, by all reports, paraded negatively. He was well backed early in the week before easing significantly closer to jump time, which I would assume was largely due to his poor parade.
If he can iron out those issues, he can improve sharply with another attempt at a mile and a half. It would not surprise me to see a marked improvement in his form over the coming weeks if he can get everything right.
Hopefully he lines up in the Archer Stakes, where I can once again back him to beat Nearco Frod, whether that proves foolish or not.
Race 4: LD-S-8: -1.5L, LD-8-4: +2.5L, LD-4-F: -4.4L, WNR-4-F: -1.3L, @WTS: 93.6, @WFA: 92.5
Freedom Rally is in excellent form for Gavin Bedggood and hit his mark to beat an uninspiring field of six.
I don’t think this form will extend much further than this, but the win was another testament to Bedggood’s ability as a trainer. Horses that are perceived as well past their best are turning their form around and winning races for him. He is as good as they come in Victoria.
Race 5: LD-S-8: -0.6L, LD-8-4: -0.5L, LD-4-F: +2.4L, WNR-4-F: +2.4L, @WTS: 87.2, @WFA: 89.1
The 1000-metre sprint for three-year-olds rated moderately, and probably a touch below what we would typically expect from this grade at this stage of the season. That has been the recurring theme with this crop, though. No runner made a glaringly obvious impression or suggested they could progress to significantly better races.
Sandown Race 5 | Buggsy
Buggsy fights to regain the lead and wins in impressive fashion first-up 👊 @CWilliamsJockey has a double ✌️
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/HEhdpozFmy pic.twitter.com/tk3WexywK3— Racing.com (@Racing) August 22, 2026
With the leading fillies and colts beginning to return in the coming weeks, these horses would need to improve quite drastically to become relevant to a race such as the Danehill Stakes in three weeks. That is not to say they cannot, but I wouldn’t expect this to be a significant form reference in higher grades.
They are nothing special.
I have it in my mind that Buggsy will be better suited over six furlongs than five, so he can improve from this, although I’m conscious that he enjoyed all of the favours in the race, following the rail.
The runner of interest is certainly Oxley Tycoon, who finished in the fastest closing split of the race despite being unsuited by the pattern of the day. He will be better suited over further and should have learnt from the experience.
He was largely unfancied on Saturday, starting $55.50 on the exchange, so perhaps he can drop back in grade and become a runner of immense interest next start.
Race 6: LD-S-8: +2.2L, LD-8-4: +2L, LD-4-F: -3.2L, WNR-4-F: -2L, @WTS: 88.7, @WFA: 88.3
The second of three 1000-metre races was won by Final Moment in a contest that was fast early before deteriorating as it progressed.
Final Moment was well supported throughout the week and continued to firm before they were sent away. Craig Williams positioned him perfectly relative to the pace, and he raced clear over the concluding stages.
This was a slight new peak and may be relevant to 1000-metre midweek races in the coming weeks. However, this group will eventually fade from relevance as the quality of opposition improves.
Race 7: LD-S-8: -0.7L, LD-8-4: +1.7L, LD-4-F: -1.6L, WNR-4-F: -0.4L, @WTS: 96.8, @WFA: 96.5
The Carlyon Stakes played out as one would expect, recording the strongest time of the three 1000-metre races, with Cavalry Girl overcoming a period of interference behind the fading Beast Mode before bypassing him to win well.
Carlyon Stakes | Cavalry Girl
“A mare at the top of her game!” Cavalry Girl explodes along the rail to win the Carlyon Stakes impressively ⭐️
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/HEhdpozFmy pic.twitter.com/Cp0SyJh0z8— Racing.com (@Racing) August 22, 2026
Is this a Moir Stakes-winning figure? No, but she is a 1000-metre mare who will race prominently and give her backers a sight. She ran to a figure of 96.5 under the weight-for-age scale and may improve again in the race Tom Dabernig has targeted for her, but I would give the edge to others.
I notice she is the second elect in the Moir behind the highly touted Natural Fling, and I would disagree with that assessment. I expect Cavalry Girl’s price to soften and for her to become the third- or fourth-pick on race day.
Natural Fling will be favourite, and perhaps rightfully so after her dominant Quezette Stakes performance. By my assessment, though, and I am not an all-in punter whatsoever, My Gladiola is as good a chance as any, and she is the way I plan to lean on race day.
While she finished second to Tentyris in the Coolmore, her best performances have come over shorter distances, and her failures have generally come over 1200 metres. Her second to Tentyris in the Lightning Stakes will stand out in what is likely to be a substandard edition of that race, and she may be an attractive price if the $8.00 with TAB holds until race day.
Returning to the Carlyon, Bazaball Rewarded was excellent as always over five furlongs, but must be some knock on the form.
Losesomewinmore also ran well, and perhaps his connections will chance their arm in the Moir, although I suspect that a Group 1 pace over 1000 metres will be too quick for him. He can run well in 1100- and 1200-metre races at Flemington, where he does his best work, over the coming months.
Hedged was a concern over 1000 metres and would remain one if he were to progress to the Moir. He appeared to labour in the ground and was unable to quicken as effectively over the distance. He may not have been in the best part of the track either.
Gavin Bedggood is smart enough to recognise all of that and should divert him to a more suitable race.
Race 8: LD-S-8: -0.5L, LD-8-4: 0L, LD-4-F: +0.5L, WNR-4-F: +0.5L, @WTS: 95.2, @WFA: 92.4
Gold Coast Belle picked up where she left off, handling a decent group of horses quite comfortably.
Sandown Race 8 | Gold Coast Belle
Gold Coast Belle returns with a bang 💥 She’s progressive, this mare 📈
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/HEhdpozFmy pic.twitter.com/ikmv08wWeA— Racing.com (@Racing) August 22, 2026
She won in good time and carried only 52.5kg, which affects the weight-for-age rating. She should improve from this and be better suited over further than the 1300 metres of Saturday’s race. I’d love to see her over a mile.
Perhaps she will follow the preparation of Grinzinger Belle, a similar mare trained by Danny O’Brien and raced in the same colours. The Let’s Elope Stakes, Stocks Stakes and Evergreen Turf Vase could provide a suitable pathway.
She would need to improve to win those races, but I believe she is capable of doing so. She has a terrific racing pattern and remains lightly raced.
Tennessee Bound produced a figure consistent with everything she has run this campaign. This appears to be her level now; she is neither improving nor regressing.
Race 9: LD-S-8: +5.4L, LD-8-4: -5.4L, LD-4-F: +0.5L, WNR-4-F: +0.5L, @WTS: 92.3, @WFA: 89.3
Stay Silent won again, three races in a row now, and has been a brilliant horse for his connections, racing his way through the midweeks and into Saturday grade.
I said this last start and could be wrong again, but this must be close to the best of him, and the handicapper may be able to get hold of him now. I’d be surprised if he were able to win again in the coming weeks, although he has a favourable racing pattern and continues to race well.
Somewhere will go into the black books of many form students, and rightly so. He finished strongly after an unsuitable run and is ready to win now, potentially reaching his mark fifth-up. He does not possess much early speed, so tread cautiously, but he is in terrific form.
Mukhtalif’s run was better than it appeared, too, and he can be considered in races over 1800 and 2000 metres moving forward. The market has always held him in high regard, and he was first-up after a 119-day spell, so he can improve markedly from this.
He races on pace, which will suit, and I’m sure his astute stable will take him to Caulfield next, where he has won previously and can enjoy the on-speed favours that track often provides.
