A genuinely excellent day’s racing this Sunday, the Manikato Stakes a glimmering addition, somewhat tarnished by a 13-metre rail position.
That is certainly out of my control, so we will make do with what we have.
Beiwacht will run favourite in the Manikato, and rightly so after winning the Memsie three weeks prior. By this point, he is very much the best horse in this field. A three-time Group 1-winning colt, he has the resume of what typically looks like a Manikato winner. There is a caveat, though. All three Group 1 wins have been over 1400 metres. Fourteen hundred metres, although only a furlong further than 1200, is a completely different test. Think of 1400 metres like the 400-metre sprint in human terms: it is a race for those who lack the natural speed for 100 and 200 metres but are able to sustain their pace for longer. He is that. He does not turn his legs over quite quickly enough to be considered a natural sprinter. That might not matter, such is his ratings edge over this field.
Every runner must have a price, and I make Beiwacht $7.00 – a vulnerable favourite, and a runner to be left untouched at his current odds.
Giga Kick was well beaten in the Moir Stakes, but predictably so. Of course he was not going to start at double figures in a Moir with the profile he carries, but perhaps he should have been. He has consistently been uncompetitive over five furlongs and drastically improves upon reaching 1200 metres.
It was physically impossible for him to do any more in the Moir Stakes, due to the topography of the track. They finish so quickly at Sandown; he could not win from where he was. He finished the Moir in 32.78, which implies that he is in rude health.
It is quite reasonable to forecast him somewhere near his figure in last season’s T.J. Smith, and thus he is far more likely than his current odds imply. A great, and rather cheap, bet to have. There is something about backing a champion too, and we have a great opportunity to do so on Sunday.
Beadman is another that is highly attractive at his current price. He finished in scintillating time after being restrained to the rear of the field in the Concorde Stakes at Randwick. That was a new best for Beadman and indicated that there might be a length or two of improvement left in him. Allocated the visitors’ draw, Tim Clark’s job will not be easy, but he is the right man for it.
Gallant Son is the outsider of the field but is improving with racing.
He has early speed, which perhaps will be paramount in this race, and can outrun his odds. Another cheap bet to have against the top of the market, which I perceive as vulnerable.
Race 1
Race one may have significant implications for the Coolmore Stakes, as Tales Of Time preps toward the Group 1 sprint feature for three-year-olds on Derby Day. Clinton McDonald has raced him sparingly, with just three starts and breaks between all of them. He resumed at Sandown, quickening with purpose and winning as if plenty were in reserve.
Five furlongs is a specialist’s distance, and I am certain he is not one, so for him to win so well over an unsuitable trip, there must be an abundance of improvement to come as he gains an extra half-furlong to stretch out over.
It is not a particularly strong race, and one that he can comfortably manage even if he does not improve – and he is highly likely to. I make him an odds-on chance and an excellent way to commence the day’s racing. There is plenty of value in his current price, and I expect him to shorten drastically before the off.
Stutt Stakes
The Stutt Stakes is traditionally a significant lead-in race for the Caulfield Guineas, but perhaps this year it is for the Thousand Guineas, as Lara Antipova sits atop the betting at this stage against the boys.
Rightly so; she won well in the Michael Moroney. Though a mile must be an enormous concern, she turns her legs over as if she will be better suited over 1400 metres, and a mile will perhaps be at the outer limit of her capabilities. So, a vulnerable favourite, and we must look elsewhere.
Something’s Burnin’ was backed off the boards to beat her in the Moroney and was a long way off the speed. The pace was fast, but he was much too far back to make any impression on the finish. He can settle much closer to her, and there is no doubt that he will stay a mile well. I make him $5.00 and an appealing option away from the filly.
Boys Bounce is another runner that can improve after winning well at Sandown. He will be ridden prominently, perhaps to lead, and has much to offer. He is much too big at his current price and can be backed quite cheaply.
Scarborough Stakes
The Scarborough Stakes for fillies is dominated by two polar opposites. Chayan raced through the premier two-year-old features, even starting favourite in the Golden Slipper. She resumed in the Furious Stakes and had no luck, settling worse than midfield and three-wide without cover. She ran on well and can drastically improve under more suitable circumstances.
The other is Over The Bridge, who has had only one start but ran scintillating time to break her maiden at Bendigo. She ran the time of a Group filly and is quickly pitched into Group 3 grade. She will settle further forward than Chayan, which might well be the difference, and perhaps has more improvement. She is the way that I lean and is a terrific bet at upwards of $3.40. I make her $2.80 and a hugely attractive betting option, especially against the established two-year-old form that Chayan carries, which has been exposed as not particularly good.
Suggested bets:
- Manikato Stakes: Backing Gigia Kick/Beadman
- Race 1 backing Tales Of Time
- Scarborough Stakes backing Over The Bridge
