Good Will Hunting: Will Elford’s Flemington tips, prices and value plays

Another week, another Group 1 winner back in the mix, as 2025 Stradbroke Handicap winner War Machine returns in Saturday’s feature, the Aurie’s Star Handicap.

Lindsay Park will be hoping he returns as the horse that won the Gilgai Stakes last spring, rather than the version that flamed up at $1.30 in the Australia Stakes in January. He was lame that day, failed to improve in the Newmarket Handicap, and was spelled thereafter.

He returns on Saturday after two jump-outs that have suggested he is in good order. He is asked to shoulder a 60.5kg impost first-up, which is some concern, but he is aided by what should be a pristine racing surface on Saturday.

I like him on Saturday. I’ve thought long and hard about his chances, and for him to be just shy of 3/1 as a horse who started 10/1 third elect against Ka Ying Rising in The Everest, even carrying top weight, is probably a gamble worth having, especially if he remains easy to back on the day. Of course, it doesn’t matter whether you like a horse; it only matters how much you like a horse. I think War Machine is a $3.50 chance, and if that price holds, he’s a worthwhile gamble.

Race 1 

In my view, Nearco Frod is the right favourite to begin the day’s racing after winning twice midweek at Sandown. He had not raced in 328 days leading into this campaign and is improving with each run. He will settle close to the pace and is Blake Shinn’s first ride since a terrible injury ruled him out for the majority of the season. Before his long spell, he had contested the winter three-year-old staying handicaps and was competitive. Shockletz, who was at the forefront of those races, has upheld the form well. Nearco Frod is building his way back to that level and can win this.

The current favourite, Our Chief, is now a four-year-old and backs up from last weekend. The strength of that form is not overly strong in comparison, and he looks a vulnerable favourite at this stage.

Will’s prices vs TAB prices

Race 5

Stealth Of Night made a good return to racing under the circumstances, racing wide, without cover and into a strong Northerly wind at Caulfield over 1100 metres. She now rises quickly to 1400 metres, her optimal distance.

Perhaps there is some concern whether she is conditioned well enough to win, having only one lead in run, but it’s apparent that she has a class advantage over this field. And while she may be somewhat well exposed, I’m inclined to believe that she remains yet to reach her absolute best.

Stage ‘N’ Screen was ridden negatively last start over 1200 metres at Lakeside, which you simply cannot do. She is entitled to improve quite drastically, and has performed well in better races than this previously.

Will’s best bets:

Race 1 Nearco Frod

Race 5 Stealth of Night/Stage ‘N’ Screen

Race 7 War Machine