The William Reid
The William Reid Stakes heralds the return of Jimmysstar, a horse many have anointed as Australia’s best sprinter. The rub, in my view, is that he is not truly a sprinter at all. His cadence is that of a horse best suited to seven furlongs, with the ability to stretch to a mile.
Since January 2025, he has assembled an impressive record: nine starts for four wins, but only one of those has come at six furlongs or less, an Oakleigh Plate where the pace collapsed and he beat She’s Bulletproof.
He is the second-best horse in Australia and, in my opinion, would have Autumn Glow’s measure over seven furlongs, but six furlongs is a completely different sport.
There’s no doubt he has been excellent against the country’s best sprinters, third in the TJ and fourth in The Everest. However, while it appears he’s accelerating with a brilliant turn of foot at the end of his races over six furlongs or less, he is in fact sustaining his sprint while others are coming to the end of theirs.
Pundits will point to The Everest, where he settled handier to the pace, but Ethan Brown rode with tactical nous from a wide draw while others chased cover over position. He was ridden aggressively to find a prominent spot early, and from that wide gate he had the space to do so. Here, he has drawn barrier one. He’s not quick away and will more likely than not land three pairs back on the rail.
The track will be fast, with little resistance, so gaps won’t materialise quickly enough for Mark Zahra and Jimmysstar to build into a long sprint. He’ll be ridden for luck and asked to quicken instantly, which he is not built for at this distance, turning his stride over at a maximum of ~2.45 strides per second, whereas Tropicus operates closer to ~2.55.
At six furlongs, he has yet to return a figure that justifies his price, even before accounting for the scenario he faces here. Of course he can win, but an SP inside 6/4 implies he will run to his seven-furlong level, which he won’t. By my assessment, he is closer to a 5/2 chance.
Tropicus, however, has improved with each preparation and returned with a win in the Oakleigh Plate. I concede he didn’t beat a field of the same depth Jimmysstar has raced in recent times, but he carried weight and won with authority. If he can hold that level of form, or even take another step forward, Jimmysstar will need to be at his absolute best to beat him. At the price, he’s highly appealing.
I make Tropicus 5/1 and an excellent chance to beat the favourite.
Charm Stone demolished a quality field in the Manikato Stakes at The Valley first-up last preparation, and there was no fluke about it, she ran fast time. If she reproduces that performance, I’d contend there’s no horse in this race better credentialled to topple Jimmysstar. She has clearly been targeted at this race by an astute stable, recognising her exceptional fresh record, and she appeals as a worthwhile gamble at big odds.
Suggested bets:
- Tropicus WIN
- Charm Stone E/W
Race 1
Ka Ying Cheer arrived in Australia as Ka Ying Rising’s pony, to accompany the world’s best horse on the flight from Hong Kong. Since beginning his own racing career in Australia, however, he has been faultless, winning both starts comprehensively.
In Hong Kong, he was typically ridden forward, urged to find the lead.
In his two Australian runs, he has instead been ridden cold, dropped out for a turn of speed. From a favourable barrier, astute connections should identify that he will find a relatively uncontested lead, and dictate at a moderate tempo. I make him a 6/4 chance and the best bet of the day.
Suggested bet:
- Race 1 – (6) Ka Ying Cheer
Race 2
Mr Bannock’s cadence and pedigree suggest that a mile and a half is his optimal trip, operating at a minimum stride frequency of ~2.15 and a maximum of ~2.33. Stride frequency is directly correlated with breathing, and his ability to relax allows for greater oxygen intake and sustained aerobic output over distance.
This preparation, he has contested four slowly run races that have developed into tests of speed rather than true staying contests, yet he has still returned ratings that would be competitive in a race of this quality.
At the mile-and-a-half trip, he has shown the ability to travel comfortably and quicken off a slow pace, while his stride profile suggests he would be better suited in a genuinely run staying race. He can settle prominently, and if he behaves on race day, he should produce a career peak performance.
Bluestone has been supported into favouritism, and understandably so.
The market expected plenty from him last start and he disappointed, though that run may have been exactly what he needed to peak here. Mick Kent is an outstanding trainer of stayers and consistently outperforms market expectations over this distance range.
Still, with improvement projected from Mr Bannock, he should be favourite and is a strong betting proposition. By my assessment, he should start inside 2/1.
Suggested bet:
- Race 2 – (9) Mr Bannock
