Welsh: Why Big Sky is a poisonous price in the Diamond

He might be one of the most exciting two-year-olds in the country right now, but at the current quote Big Sky looks a poisonous price for the Blue Diamond.

There is a moment every summer and autumn when a juvenile produces a performance so visually explosive that logic quietly slips out the back door and hype takes over. Big Sky might be that horse.

The colt from the powerhouse yard of Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr made it two dominant wins from as many starts when he controlled the race from the front and toyed with his rivals in the Chairman’s Stakes at Caulfield Racecourse on Saturday. He led them under his own steam, travelled strongly throughout and, when asked, quickly put the race to bed before being eased down late to score by three lengths. He had done much the same on debut at Flemington Racecourse, again winning eased down and looking like a colt with a serious engine.

Visually, it was breathtaking. He rolls along with power, quickens sharply and gives the impression there is still plenty in reserve. It is no surprise that early markets for the Blue Diamond Stakes have him right at the top of betting. On raw ability, he looks a Group 1 juvenile.

But punting, especially with two-year-olds, is rarely about talent alone. For all the brilliance late, the part of Big Sky’s races that raises the biggest red flag comes much earlier.

In both of his starts he has overraced noticeably. On debut he travelled with his head pointing skywards, fighting the rider and wanting to go faster. At Caulfield he was a touch more settled, but only marginally. He still raced keenly and wasted energy he did not need to waste, even while leading.

Racelab’s Matt Collum says ratings suggest Saturday’s Chairman’s win was a big leap forward on his debut.

“He settles on speed, his late sectionals have been strong and his ratings profile is trending the right way with each run. From a raw ability and performance-curve point of view, you can see why he’s near the top of the market,” Collum said.

Over 1000 metres in relatively controlled races, he has been able to get away with that. He has rolled forward, dictated and then let his natural ability do the rest.

That becomes a far bigger issue when you shift from 1000 metres to 1200 metres. A sharp 1000 metre race is a very specialised test. It is about speed, early positioning and a short, explosive effort. Horses can get away with doing things wrong because the race is over before those mistakes truly hurt them. Twelve hundred metres is a different style of contest altogether. The pressure lasts longer, the tempo is sustained and energy conservation becomes critical.

Collum agrees that step up in trip, and the shape of his recent races, are the key risk.

“The knock is how those runs have been set up,” he said. “He’s coming out of two slowly run races and now jumps straight from 1000 to 1200 metres in a Group 1. Add in the fact he can overrace and get too keen, and that’s a profile that can be vulnerable late under real pressure.”

The Blue Diamond is exactly that sort of race. It is high pressure from the gates, run at a genuine tempo, and it demands not just speed but tractability. Big Sky has never had to take a sit behind horses and switch off. He has never had to cope with being crossed, restrained and dictated to. If he lights up again in a big field and burns fuel early, that extra 200 metres will not feel like a small rise in trip. It will feel like a mountain.

That is why, at this stage of his career, unless he can significantly improve his manners early in his races between now and Diamond Day, he faces an uphill task to truly see out a searching 1200 metres. Talent can carry you a long way, but racing keenly in a Group 1 against hardened juveniles is a dangerous habit.

History offers some comfort to his supporters, but it comes with caveats. The Chairman’s Stakes has long been a recognised Diamond lead up and was famously won on debut by Redoute’s Choice before he went on to take the Blue Diamond. Road To Success also completed the Chairman’s Stakes – Blue Diamond double. However, those Chairman’s wins came when the race was run over 1100 metres, not 1000. That extra furlong makes those precedents less directly comparable to Big Sky’s path.

The Price stable has already pulled off the 1000 to 1200 metre Diamond leap with Extreme Choice. But Extreme Choice was more tractable early in his career and his Chairman’s Stakes win rated far stronger on the clock, roughly a full second quicker. He looked professional as well as explosive. Big Sky, right now, looks all raw brilliance with racing manners still a work in progress.

The clock also tempers the excitement. Saturday’s winning time of 58.06 seconds on a Good track was the second slowest Chairman’s Stakes winning time on firm ground, with only Formality’s 58.10 seconds recorded as slower. Comparing times across different years and different days can be fraught given variations in track condition, wind and tempo, but it is at least a guide.

Then there is the strength of what he has beaten. Neither of his races shapes as a particularly deep form reference and the opposition he dismissed does not scream elite two-year-old depth. That is not his fault. He can only beat what is in front of him and he has done so impressively. But dominating modest fields while doing things wrong is very different to absorbing sustained pressure in a Group 1 and still finding late.

The plot thickens when you look within his own stable. The Price and Kent team also saddle up Guest House, another highly regarded colt who sits near the top of Diamond markets. He too has only raced at 1000 metres, but he is at least set to step out in a Prelude over 1100 metres on Saturday, giving connections and punters a look at how he handles the rise in trip before the big dance. That 1100m run could prove crucial in a race where race craft and tractability matter just as much as raw speed.

Big Sky will not get that opportunity. He goes straight from two 1000 metre sprints into one of the most intense 1200 metre tests for juveniles on the calendar.

None of this is to say he cannot win. If he relaxes, switches off and channels that obvious engine, he may simply be too good. The stable knows how to prepare one for this race and his natural ability is beyond doubt.

But betting is about price and risk, not highlight reels. Right now, Big Sky is all brilliance and buzz, yet he carries clear, measurable vulnerabilities. Until he shows he can settle and conserve energy, he looks a colt being asked to do a very hard thing at a very short price. He might be the best horse in the race, but at this stage he is very easy to oppose at the short quote.

He looks a poisonous price.

Current bet365 Blue Diamond Market (note: prices correct as at 2/2/26).