Summary of Best Bets:
Race 4 No.1 Philosopher
Value bet: Race 5 No.6 Shaime
Best bet: Race 8 No.6 Olivia Rose
Track:
- The track looks likely to be a Good 4 to start the meeting, with the potential to improve to a Good 3 as it has at the past three meetings.
- The rail will be +9m the entire circuit, moving out from the previous meeting.
- Advantage usually sits with runners settling in the front half of the field and that is expected to be the case again with this rail position.
Stats that matter:
- Fred Kersley has been profitable for punters recently, riding 16 winners from his last 100 rides for a POT of +37.9%. He also holds a positive return at Cranbourne alone of +10.1% POT.
Race 4:
This 55-second sprint heat looks a very open contest, but Philosopher profiles well dropping sharply in grade from recent runs. He is a multiple winner at this short trip and from barrier one looks likely to find a favourable position in running and get every chance off that map.
Suggested Bet: Backing (1) Philosopher (Win)
Race 5:
Shaime generally takes a few runs to find her best and now hits this third-up, a stage of the preparation where she has previously had good success. She looks near peak fitness and this race sets up well from a map perspective, with a likely fast tempo allowing her to get a soft run in behind it. The current odds also look better than last start when she appeared less favourably placed.
Suggested Bet: Backing (6) Shaime (Each-way)
Race 8:
Olivia Rose is flying this preparation and gets every chance to continue that form in suitable conditions. She maps softly from barrier two, can race close to the speed and is well weighted with the apprentice claim. She is in career-best form and this looks an ideal set-up.
Suggested Bet: Backing (6) Olivia Rose (Win)
