Race 3: (MDN 1200m)
Tempo: Above Average
Few maidens can claim to have the closing speed numbers of (1) IFUOUSTARTMEUP, a sixteen-start maiden galloper for Stephen Woodsford. Home fast against the pattern at Timaru fresh up and has run some meritorious races out of the chute at Riccarton throughout his career, often finding bad luck or one or two better on the day. Something the win, more the place. (2) NOIVERN was heavily bet at Ashburton for the lethal Blackadder/Fawcett combination and stuck on bravely after working hard to find the top. Expect similar tactics again from the wide gate. (15) LIKEALEXUS has trialled ok for an astute betting stable, watch for any market lead.
Suggested Bet: IFYOUSTARTMEUP (Value)
Race 4: (R75 1100m)
Tempo: Above Average
Best each-way bet of the day in this 1100m sprint contest. (14) QUEEN OF SHEBA looking forward to seeing what this mare can do at 1100m at the first attempt, just a one-win horse because of her lack of strength at the end of 1200m and that was on display again at Timaru where she trailed a fast tempo and got the split at the top of the straight and not able to hold off the backmarkers. George Rooke aboard from the inside gate at 54kg, he’ll get the most out of her. (2) TORONTO resuming and has been enormous at the trials for Kevin & Stephen Gray, interesting choice of rider using the claiming apprentice Floor Moerman (rode in latest trial) over regular rider Bruno Queiroz who is available. A versatile horse can go forward or back and finish off, the one to beat.
Suggested Bet: QUEEN OF SHEBA
Race 6: (Open Hcp 1000m)
Tempo: Fast
Class runner (1) PLATINUM ATTACK is extremely well-placed to repeat his impressive first-up win at Ellerslie. Drops back to a 1000m which is no concern from the wide gate with so much speed drawn underneath him, a proven weight carrier and already a winner out of the Riccarton chute start over 1000m and has the forecast of drying conditions in his favour. Track currently a S7 with 3mm rain for the week, expecting one or more upgrades during the meeting. (12) NORTH ENGLAD deserves enormous respect with any former Aussie debuting in NZ and his Timaru trial win was impressive. (5) AZEEZLE another former Aussie, third-up building to a win and can run a big race at odds.
Suggested Bet: PLATINUM ATTACK (Best)
Race 7: (F&M SW+P 1400m)
Map favours for (1) MOVING MELODY racing keenly since switching to the stables of Terri Rae, impressive win first-up here over 1000m then track pattern to suit at Ashburton chasing hard in 2nd behind Charmrose at 1200m. She is vulnerable at the end of 1400m; however, the map and predicted tempo affords her every winning chance. The danger is (9) BONA SFORZA superb first-up closing off in fast splits at Te Rapa in a good race, back against her own sex and this appears a target race second-up, lack of pace engaged the only query.
Suggested Bets: MOVING MELODY & BONA SFORZA
Race 8: (Open Hcp 2590m)
Tempo: Below Average
Last year’s winner (8) JUST CHARLIE is very well-placed to repeat that victory with just 53kg on his back and the speed map to himself, he’s extremely hard to get past when he’s allowed to dictate on his terms and the only other speed influences in this race are (5) LOMBARDI (query at the trip) and (10) THE PRECURSOR, on a serious upward trajectory this campaign and maps to be in the finish, but does go 1600-2590m and this is quite possibly a prep run for his target race. (8) PROBOY took the whole of the Trentham straight to reel in the speed runners and got there on the line last start to the cheer of the punters as he was heavily bet. In winning form and in contention.
Suggested Bet: JUST CHARLIE
Race 10: (3YO F SW) 1600m
Tempo: Average
G1 NZ 1000 Guineas. Who leads? (5) SO FEAR most likely, (14) GROCERS GIRL blinkers on – goes forward, (15) PARK IN THE BAR has speed. Similar to the boys there has yet to be a standout filly although (1) ASTURIA is well on her way to proving she could be winning two of three starts to date, only defeat a narrow and an arguably unlucky one against the boys in the Hawkes Bay Guineas. Tempo is the key to her winning chances as the lower draw is not necessarily an advantage with a lack of gate speed at hand for her to use. She clearly has the superior turn of foot and only need the gaps to open up. (7) FIAMMA is profiling well to put in a peak performance for the Wexford stable, returned off 36 days with a quiet trial in between and chased hard to the line in 3rd wearing blinkers first time in the Soliloquy Stakes. The rise to 1600m with Craig Grylls aboard a positive, expect her forward in running and having a tactical advantage over ASTURIA whose map is the only concern.
Suggested Bet: ASTURIA (Next Best)
