Racelab’s Matt Collum has run the 2026 NZB Kiwi field through the full Racelab ratings framework to identify which runners are genuinely up to this level – and which may need everything to go right.
Using peak rating figures, last-start figures and the critical Job To Do (JTD) benchmark, the model provides a clear, data-driven snapshot of what’s needed to win the NZB Kiwi at Ellerslie on Saturday. Rather than focusing purely on market position, this approach assesses historical performance profiles, weight-adjusted benchmarks and peak capability to determine who is best credentialed to win.
To learn more about Racelab, please click here.
It’s not difficult to see why Well Written is a $1.20 favourite in the 2026 NZB Kiwi. From a ratings perspective she’s well clear of the JTD and has scope for further improvement. She really has to put in a poor run to give the others a chance. Romanoff and La Dorada have some high ratings from running 1st and 2nd respectively in the NZ Guineas on a heavy deck however their form has dropped off since. Belle Cheval is racing consistently with ratings in the 95-96 range and can figure in the finish. Very hard to go past the obvious pick here, Well Written.
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
