Summary of Best Bets:
Race 4 #4 Amahni’s Girl- May need this run but everything else looks perfect for her.
Race 5 #4 I Am Louie- No luck on debut and this looks to work out much better off that experience.
Race 7 #5 Influential – Consistent and feel the edge out of the track will help.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 8.5m
- Rail a long way out.
- A heap of rain over the weekend.
- Not sure what to expect but wet trackers and on speed horses may be advantaged.
Key stats:
- Ben Thompson has ridden 14 of his last 50 to win and ROI of +37%.
- Angela Jones in good form and from her last 50 rides has a positive ROI +39%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(3) Wiliamtheconqueror is better than Maiden grade and is knocking on the door. Possibly a gear problem fresh that might have cost him that race. Has since been back to the trials and went well. Looks a nice race for him.
(4) Astern Effort has been placed in his last four runs but is a 10 start maiden. Jones rides and is one that has to be considered on those recent runs.
(6) Delicious Derek is a Waller-trained son of The Autumn Sun. Bit outclassed down south but the last start effort on this track was full of merit. Will be better next prep but up to winning here.
Selections:
(3) Wiliamtheconqueror
(6) Delicious Derek
(4) Astern Effort
(10) Tszyuya
Suggested Bet: Win (3) Wiliamtheconqueror
Race 2:
(2) Royal Commodore pulled the right rein not accepting Saturday and this looks suitable. Handles all ground, races on speed and sure to look the winner. Just the last 50m is the heart in the mouth stuff over this trip.
(6) Braveheart is a very well bred I Am Invincible who has now joined the Gollan stable. Trials have been very good and he is sure to win multiple races in the sunshine state. Wet should not be an issue.
(7) Star Rapper also better placed up here and pass mark fresh. Needs to improve but place chance.
(1) Bews and (5) Code In Time next best.
Selections:
(2) Royal Commodore
(6) Braveheart
(7) Star Rapper
(1) Bews
Suggested Bet: No
Race 3:
Three of my top five have come out so not really interested.
(7) Aristocratic Girl was in a winnable race Saturday but scratched. Rock hard fit, does have a little flat spot but keeps finding under pressure. Will give a sight here and a genuine winning chance.
I’m sure (9) Mercatello will make a horse next time in work. She did improve from first run to second and she can improve again here. Maps well and a win would not surprise in the least.
Selections:
(9) Mercatello
(7) Aristocratic Girl
(11) Pearls In June
(1) Oscar
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
Gee, I think (4) Amahni’s Girl is well placed here. The only little query is does she need one more run to fitten up a bit? The fresh run was a pass mark, up to 1600m suits and handles all ground. Should be on speed and very hard to beat.
The Two Flogs podcast own (1) Silent Call so I have more than an interest in him. He has been very consistent and has run well every time he has worn blinkers. Won on heavy ground but it was a four horse race against walkers. Do like the fact he is rock hard fit off an 1800m run and trip to Sydney.
(6) Don’tcha Think has ability and ready to show best 4th run back.
Selections:
(4) Amahni’s Girl
(1) Silent Call
(6) Don’tcha Think
Suggested Bet: (4) Amahni’s Girl
Race 5:
Not much went right for (4) I Am Louie on debut. Slow out, then late in the race ran out of room. The run was full of merit and looks better than Maiden grade. Thompson stays on and looks like the one they all have to beat.
(5) Los Alamitos beat I Am Louie home last start and has been good in all runs. Draws to map well and looks a legitimate winning hope.
(8) Weekend Spirit is rock hard fit off recent racing and the 1700m run last start. Seems to find one better each time but a chance in exotics.
Selections:
(4) I Am Louie
(5) Los Alamitos
(8) Weekend Spirit
Suggested Bet: Win (4) I Am Louie
Race 6:
(2) Lonesome Soul went around in good grade Saturday races all last prep. Was always strong late there and every chance she is a better horse this prep. May just need the run and would rather a senior on.
Lots of upside left with (3) Shredded. $10 out to $26 last start and that was a ridiculous drift. Travelled well and only beaten 2.2L by a smart one in Fabulantes. Made the blackbook there and can win this.
(9) Cool Moon is consistent and respect any money for (4) Triple Malt.
Selections:
(3) Shredded
(2) Lonesome Soul
(9) Cool Moon
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7:
The toppy (1) Barrelling has been going well but has bumped into a horse in form the last couple. Can lead or sit right on speed and give a great sight. Genuine wet is a little query.
(5) Influential is a bit of a non-winner but the last couple have been eye catching efforts. From the gate he should be able to land in about the 3rd pair and get every chance. Wet only helps the cause.
(6) Moon Sweeper is a beauty but can’t help but feel he will be better after this run.
Selections:
(5) Influential
(1) Barrelling
(6) Moon Sweeper
Suggested Bet: (5) Influential
Race 8:
(2) Berezka was poor as a $3 fave last start but had respiratory issues. Gear changes and could be a sharp improver. Good draw and 2kg claim both handy as well.
(4) Mr Bubbaluski has only won 1 of 10 but he’s a better horse than that. Good record at this track, likes the trip but may map a little sticky here.
(19) Homeric wasn’t good enough for down south but can measure up here. The first run for Munce had merit and from a good gate can trouble these. 1200m suits better.
(12) Immediate would rather 1110m but Thompson is riding well, Gollan trains and it was good through the line last start.
Selections:
(2) Berezka
(19) Homeric
(12) Immediate
(4) Mr Bubbaluski
Suggested Bets: No bet
