Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 3 No.5 Myhro’s Ruler
Two-bet play: Race 10 No.2 Bullets High / No.15 Enamorada
Turf Talk
- Rail back to the True after being in the 9m position last week, so it’s a totally different track.
- Inside nine lanes are all fresh ground and suspect that’s where you will want to be.
- Light southerly winds so expect horses up on speed to prove hard to run down.
Race by race overview
Race 1
Not a lot of speed. (2) Sassy Boom may lead from her stablemate, (1) Immortal Star.
(2) Sassy Boom has jumped out nicely and may well give them something to catch here. Doesn’t have a flash first-up record, but a few of those were at 1400m, and fresh she looks better suited at 1200m.
(6) Ka Ying Cheer draws the best gate he has since returning to Australia, so they might try and press up right behind the speed. Both wins have been excellent and this looks a nice stepping stone to town.
(1) Immortal Star is also racing well.
Selections:
(2) Sassy Boom
(6) Ka Ying Cheer
(1) Immortal Star
Suggested bet: There are better betting races on the card.
Race 2
Doesn’t look much speed in the race.
Ben Allen has a good record on (4) Bluestone and he looks the starting point in the race. He comes through what appears a strong form reference at Sandown last time out, where the tempo was only moderate and the race was dominated by those on the inside and up on speed. He hit the line well enough and now draws a better gate third-up. Allen has been positive on him in the past too, which might be needed if they walk early.
There wasn’t much between Bluestone and (1) Flamin’ Romans when they clashed at The Valley in August last year. The latter has a weight swing and does get the blinkers back on for the first time this campaign. He can roll forward and make his own luck up on speed.
(9) Mr Bannock is racing well and gets down in the weights here.
Selections:
(4) Bluestone
(1) Flamin’ Romans
(9) Mr Bannock
(10) Zibulon
Suggested bet: No real interest. If backing Bluestone I’d be at least saving on Flamin’ Romans.
Race 3
(5) Myhro’s Ruler leads. Not much other obvious speed, but with 2YOs early in their careers it can be unpredictable.
Like (5) Myhro’s Ruler. He has had three jump-outs and been good in all three. Has good early speed so will likely make light work of the wide draw, and John McArdle is a terrific trainer of juveniles. Looks primed to win on debut.
The toppy (1) Rich On Bubbles beat a handy field fresh at Pakenham, with the third horse since winning, before heading to Murray Bridge and bolting in, albeit in moderate time.
(2) Cyclotron didn’t have a lot of luck on debut in Adelaide. 1200m looks like it will really suit him.
Selections:
(5) Myhro’s Ruler
(2) Cyclotron
(1) Rich On Bubbles
Suggested bet: Like Myhro’s Ruler.
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Race 4
Not a lot of speed on paper. Maybe (3) Classic Gem is handy for the new stable, as she has been handy to the speed in jump-outs. Wouldn’t be mucking around with (2) Getta Good Feeling either, as she’s best served pushing forward rather than going back from the wide draw.
(2) Getta Good Feeling is the horse to beat, but the first-up win may have been a touch flattering and that has her prohibitively short. At a mile, suspect they ride her like a good thing, which she may well be, but there is a level of caution around this filly’s form.
The Oaks winner (1) Strictly Business has looked particularly dour in jump-outs. Would be surprised if she can win at a mile fresh.
Selections:
(2) Getta Good Feeling
(4) Next Jen
(3) Classic Gem
(5) Morgana
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 5
Speed comes from… well, it’s hard to be certain. There doesn’t look a lot of it. Early in her career (7) Pondalowie would have led a race like this, but she’s been missing the kick of late, although she did jump well in her trials leading in. (8) Verdoux can be handy with the lightweight, while (1) El Rocko is normally on speed over further and may push forward.
(8) Verdoux is flying and now gets in here with just 51kg on her back after a smart claim for Jackson Radley. The step to 1200m looks ideal, she just needs a good ride in the first 400m to land in a winning spot.
Think (7) Pondalowie can run a race at odds. They’ve removed a bit of her gear this campaign and the jump-outs have been, typically, solid. Early doors she had an effective strike rate as a jump-and-run sprinter and it would be no surprise to see them revert to those tactics. She raced without much luck last campaign.
Ben Allen rides (5) Big Swinger after riding Verdoux at her past two, which you’d assume is due to the weight. Big Swinger has shown good talent in his relatively short career and his jump-out leading in was solid.
Selections:
(8) Verdoux
(7) Pondalowie
(4) King Zephyr
(5) Big Swinger
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 6
The time-honoured Don Casboult. Bloody good edition of the race, too.
Provided she jumps cleanly off the pole draw, (12) Bassett Babe has a terrific chance. Her two wins in Adelaide were excellent before coming east. The jump-out at Flemington between runs was sound and the important thing was Jye McNeil got her to jump well after she was slow out most recently in Adelaide. She’s going to have a tactical edge on a couple of key rivals and that will see her hard to chase.
(5) Scenic Point has more talent than she delivered last campaign. Like that Zahra rides. Her jump-out at Pakenham was very good, Kilmore not as good, but she’s got too much talent to be going around at big odds.
Like Dan Stackhouse getting back aboard (2) Point Barrow, he knows her well. The knock is always her racing style, which will see her get right out the back, but there’s little denying her talent. If she’s within striking distance at the 200m then she will put them away. She’s short enough though.
Not convinced on (3) Alpha Sofie, but she’s better than what she showed down the straight last start. Getting back around a bend looks a plus.
Selections:
(12) Bassett Babe
(5) Scenic Point
(2) Point Barrow
(1) Ferivia
Suggested bet: Backing Bassett Babe, something small on Scenic Point.
Race 7
Speed comes from (9) Astral Flame, who is the likely leader. Hope they press forward with (7) Philia, who has the speed to cross from the wide draw.
Fascinating to see how they ride (1) Treasurethe Moment after they weren’t happy when she led first-up. Do they ride her quietly and risk being buried on the fence, or give her a dig and hold leader’s back at worst? After what looked a plain first-up run, where she got a soft lead and folded late, the stable weren’t happy with her heading into the All-Star Mile. That’s a concern when you’re taking a short quote. Best horse in the race, no doubt. Thrown in at level weights, absolutely. But there are enough queries to make her vulnerable.
(7) Philia had no luck at Flemington last time out. She looks ready to run a big race third-up, getting to the mile, which is where she really started to hit her straps in the Queensland winter. The stable came down here with high hopes and this looks a good race for her.
(9) Astral Flame is appallingly well in at the weights being an 82-rater, but she’s on the up and makes her own luck on speed. Hard to believe she’s even in the same conversation as Treasurethe Moment, but with a reasonably soft lead for an in-form Lachlan Neindorf, she can certainly give them something to catch. She beat Ahha Ahha comprehensively last start before that mare went on to beat many of these in the Matron Stakes at Flemington, so the form reads OK. There’s also been merit to her wins on the clock this campaign.
(4) Too Darn Discreet had the bias against her last start and looks ready now.
If Treasurethe Moment turns up in anything like her best form and gets even luck, she will win. But her first-up run coupled with her withdrawal from the All-Star Mile paints enough doubt at the very short quote.
Selections:
(9) Astral Flame
(7) Philia
(1) Treasurethe Moment
(4) Too Darn Discreet
Suggested bet: Small plays Astral Flame / Philia.
Race 8
Speed looks (2) Jigsaw from (7) Tropicus and (5) Baraqiel.
The only time (1) Jimmysstar was beaten first-up in Australia was fresh last campaign when he struggled with the 1000m tempo. The 1200m here suits much better. His jump-outs have been excellent, as you’d expect from one of the best sprinters in the land. At his best, they’ll need to go to a new level to beat him. The slight knock is gate one, as he could get buried, but Mark Zahra is the man you want making those calls.
The thought that you’d even consider mentioning (2) Jigsaw and Jimmysstar in the same sentence was preposterous at the back end of spring, but Cindy’s seven-year-old looks the main danger. He will roll forward with the wind at his back and prove mighty hard to catch. The seven-day back-up is a query for Jigsaw, as it’s uncharted territory and his recent races have been very well spaced.
(9) Charm Stone is going to get a lovely run and she goes well fresh. Trials have been solid enough and she appears over the odds.
(7) Tropicus is another who will make his own luck up on speed. He has trialled nicely since that dominant Oakleigh Plate win and while bias-assisted, that form held strong in the Newmarket.
(4) Angel Capital had little luck in the Newmarket, but may have been a touch flattered by the track bias that day. He may be looking for 1400m now.
Selections:
(1) Jimmysstar
(9) Charm Stone
(2) Jigsaw
(7) Tropicus
Suggested bet: Small 1×3 each-way Charm Stone.
Race 9
Absolutely no speed on paper.
Blinkers go on (5) Savisanta, a horse that has previously shown some speed, so maybe they roll forward.
With even luck, (1) Planet Red should beat these. He’s totally flying. Huge run behind Observer first-up and then could have won the Australian Guineas if he drew a gate or pressed more forward early. The form out of that race looks irresistible. Zahra takes over and they may ride him more positively out to 2000m. The only two things that beat him look to be bad luck or over-racing at the trip.
(8) Johnich isn’t the worst roughie. He was luckless three back at Flemington over 2000m, had nothing go right in the Tasmanian Derby and then probably should have finished very close to (9) Roulette King at Sandown last start, and that galloper is much shorter here. Would love to see him hold a spot from a good draw.
(10) Mr Independent could give some cheek. He was gone 400m from home on the Heath track last time out but somehow lifted himself off the canvas to win. His advantage is that he can lead for fun.
Roulette King looks like 2000m will suit.
Selections:
(1) Planet Red
(8) Johnich
(9) Roulette King
(10) Mr Independent
Suggested bet: Planet Red to win.
Race 10
Speed will be hot through (5) Porter who loves to roll forward. (9) Regal Tycoon is also going to be thereabouts.
Would have preferred him at a mile now, but (2) Bullets High looks airborne for Kelvin Bourke. Noted his last 200m and work past the post when running last here first-up at 1200m. He then went to Echuca where he was totally luckless in the Cup. Strong speed should suit and he will charge at them late.
(15) Enamorada was plain first-up but posted a strong rating in beating several subsequent winners at Sandown last start. Her trial between runs versus Jimmysstar was sublime. She gets down in the weights and the strong tempo should help break the field up and negate the wide draw. She’s got real talent on her day.
Selections:
(2) Bullets High
(15) Enamorada
Suggested bet: Keen here. Backing Bullets High and Enamorada, looking to finish a tricky day with a wet sail.
