Betsy’s Set: Morphettville

Turf Talk:

• The track is currently rated a Good 4. With clear conditions forecast race day and in the lead up, expecting the track to be in the Good range come Race 1.
• Rail: +13m 1200m–W/Post & +9m remainder. Expecting the track to play off rails in the straight.
• When Morphettville is dry, it generally favours horses settling forward of midfield.

Stats That Matter:

• In-form jockeys: Teo Nugent (14% SR, +24.1% POT last 100) and Rochelle Milnes (18% SR, +29.6% POT last 100).
• Richard & Chantelle Jolly x Jake Toeroek: 22 wins from their last 100 and teaming up five times here.

Race 1

Based on the ratings (3) FROM THE BLOCK has produced earlier this prep, he appears to be the best horse in this race, but things didn’t go his way last start at Sandown so he can maybe be forgiven for that effort. The risk with (3) FROM THE BLOCK is he is getting deeper into his prep now, so it’s hard to know exactly where he is at, but his best form should be too good if he produces it. (4) UNDER AND OVER was well supported when resuming last time out, expecting she can be an improver given her strong 2nd up record (3:2-0-0). (2) DANCING STORM continues to be around the mark in similar level races to this and fitter 3rd up now suits. (5) ZOUPURRING resumes for a new stable and maps softly from an inside barrier, he can go well but expecting he will improve off this run 2nd up.

Selections:
(3) From The Block
(4) Under And Over
(2) Dancing Storm
(5) Zoupurring

Suggested Bet: No Bet — would want around $3 to get involved with From The Block.

Race 2

(2) RABTAT has been in super form this prep with three wins on the bounce and doing no wrong, but keener to lean towards (5) LAVISH THINKER who is proven over this 2500m trip and hit the line strongly last time over 2250m. (5) LAVISH THINKER was well supported last weekend in the race (2) RABTAT won but was scratched. (1) GOLIOTUS is in strong form, having run a close 3rd behind a runner who franked the form at Sandown; he may be better on a wetter track. (4) DIXIE WHISTLER is generally consistent in these races and will be prominent early.

Selections:
(5) Lavish Thinker
(2) Rabtat
(1) Goliotus
(4) Dixie Whistler

Suggested Bet: No Bet — comes down to who runs the trip best.

Race 3

(1) INTELLECTUAL was well supported to win when making his debut here 2 weeks ago, the strong market support came off the back of some very impressive trial form, but he was made to work hard for the win given he raced very greenly in the straight and was nearly caught by (8) SNOW MERCY late. Up in distance may suit (8) SNOW MERCY and she was the eye catcher of that race but feel if (1) INTELLECTUAL had not raced so greenly, he would have won by a bigger margin so expecting to see improvement from him today. (7) ZOUTRAIL steps up in grade after breaking her maiden in a midweek race and maps for a favourable run. (10) JUXTAPOSE wasn’t too fair away from the fancied pair at the top of the market on debut, natural improvement off that debut run could see her improve.

Selections:
(1) Intellectual
(8) Snow Mercy
(7) Zoutrail
(10) Juxtapose

Suggested Bet: Win (1) Intellectual.

Race 4

(2) LEAVING LAS VEGAS broke through for an overdue maiden win last start after a string of four 2^nd place finishes prior. Hopeful he can go on with it now with some confidence and looks well suited if he can transfer his synthetic form to the turf. (1) WARPARTY is running well in strong form races of this level around the likes of CASH & ANOTHERHOUSE but he perhaps would prefer a wet track. (3) SAVATOFF has won 2 in a row now in handy fashion. Looking to rise in grade again here but perhaps needs luck from the wide barrier. (13) FLYWAY is dropping down slightly in grade which could help him recapture some of his better form previous to his 2 most recent runs.

Selections:
(2) Leaving Las Vegas
(1) Warparty
(3) Savatoff
(13) Flyway

Suggested Bet: No Bet — have LLV on top but trust is still building.

Race 5

(9) THUNDER SHOC has found some of her better form this prep with a win and two 2^nd placings. She took a step up in level last start and finished a close 2^nd to in form HALLIWELL, who will contest today’s listed feature. This looks a slightly easier race for (9) THUNDER SHOC than the previous race she contested. (1) MESROUR resumes and is generally competitive when 1^st up into a prep having run three 2nds in three previous 1^st up runs, but may be back in the run which is the risk. (5) LOTTIE JANE broke through for a win last start after 3 placings in a row, she is in good form but not sure how strong the form is from her last start. (7) SUN FLIPPER won over a sprint trip 1st up before a poor performance last start, suggest she didn’t appreciate a heavy rated track so can improve here in better conditions and gets in light at the weights so expect a forward showing.

Selections:
(9) Thunder Shoc
(1) Mesrour
(5) Lottie Jane
(7) Sun Flipper

Suggested Bet: Win (9) Thunder Shoc.

Race 6

(3) ANTHRACITE continued to impress in his short career last start when winning by a soft 3L. He rises in trip again here to the 1800m, but that shouldn’t prove much of an issue. Given how this race shapes he should get a soft run out in front and take control of the tempo in the early stages. (5) THE MANSMAN is probably a runner who can finish strongly here and wouldn’t surprise completely over the 1800m for the first time. (7) PETA’S HEART was well supported to beat the in form RABTAT last start but looks better suited dropping back to 1800m today. (1) BOOM BANG won at huge odds when resuming last week, this is a step up in grade but he comes in fitter 2^nd up and suited up in trip off that last run.

Selections:
(3) Anthracite
(5) The Mansman
(7) Peta’s Heart
(1) Boom Bang

Suggested Bet: (3) Anthracite likely very short — market dependent.

Race 7

(3) DYER looked to have resumed in good order when running a close 4^th 1^st up before he ducked across the border to Mildura for a soft win. He has hopefully taken good confidence out of that win and comes into this race with a favourable race map where he can again push forwards and be prominent. With a soft enough run he should be in this for a long way. (2) CLARENCE managed to win last start after finishing 2^nd in his previous 2 runs, remains in a similar grade but coming back in trip could be his test. (13) HOOKED ON WEALTH looks to take a step up in grade but gets in very light at the weights here which could be to his advantage. (8) INNOCENT ENUFF is in good form having not missed the placings in her last 5 starts with only 2 wins, does need to transfer synthetic form to the turf today though.

Selections:
(3) Dyer
(2) Clarence
(13) Hooked On Wealth
(8) Innocent Enuff

Suggested Bet: Each-Way (3) Dyer.

Race 8 – The Wylie Handicap (Listed)

Today’s Listed feature race, The Wylie Handicap, sees some of the state’s handier sprinters resuming here with potential Victorian Spring Carnival aspirations in mind. (3) AVIATRESS & (6) WATCHME WIN in particular look to have potential to target some good races after they both picked up black type level wins through last prep. Both runners can fire fresh and are undefeated 1^st up into preps so expecting one of these two can resume in strong order and move on to better races through the spring. (12) HAJRA has extra race fitness on her side given she has been running through the winter months. She has won 2 of her previous 3 runs and while this is a step up in grade, she gets in light at the weights and has those fitness advantages. (5) FANCIFY has speed to burn and looks likely to be the leader of this race in the early stages of the race, she has a good 1^st up record (4:2-1-0) so with a soft run on speed she could be hard to catch.

Selections:
(6) Watchme Win
(3) Aviatress
(12) Hajra
(5) Fancify

Suggested Bet: Even stake: Win (6) Watchme Win & Win (3) Aviatress.

Race 9

It was suggested (15) BEAUTIFUL JEWEL would have improvement in her the deeper she went into this prep given she was competitive in group level staying races last prep. (15) BEAUTIFUL JEWEL hit the line very well when 1^st up over the 1400m trip, so expecting she will be better here fitter now and up to the 1600m. (1) BRAVE STAR drops in grade and looks well suited from a race map perspective. She rates well in this but would have been a lot keener if the track was wetter, a good rated track may not be ideal. (11) TROPICAL HOUSE steps up in grade again after another win and has won 2 in a row now. She maps softly and gets in light at the weights so should be considered. (6) I CATCHEM FOX is on the quick back up here. He was well supported last week but found little luck in the run so put a line through that run and he can be forgiven for this now.

Selections:
(15) Beautiful Jewel
(1) Brave Star
(11) Tropical House
(6) I Catchem Fox

Suggested Bet: No Bet — would back Brave Star if track somehow gets to Soft 6+.