Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: R5 (1) Different Gravy
Next Best: R7 (1) Tycoon Star
Value Bet: R2 (17) Common Interest
Roughie: R9 (3) Kazaru
Turf Talk
- Clear conditions are forecast for raceday, but with showers in the lead-up we are working off a Soft 5 rating.
- The rail pushes out slightly from the previous meeting and will be +9m from the 1200m to the winning post and +6m the remainder.
- Expecting a fair track as usual on the course proper. At the previous meeting with a similar rail position, the majority of winners settled forward of midfield.
Stats that matter
- Andrew Gluyas is one of the most in-form local stables, producing 18 winners from his past 100 runners with a POT of +16.5%.
- Group 1-winning jockey Ben Allen comes across the border for some strong rides and has 20 winners from his past 100 rides with a POT of +18.6%.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(4) Alainge is on the quick back-up after running on strongly in last weekend’s Onkaparinga Cup. Off the back of that run she looks suited rising in distance here and can settle in a good position from a low barrier.
(9) Lady Thinkabell has been in consistent form since her maiden win. She contested a stronger race last weekend and can improve dropping back in level again.
(3) Empress Of The Sun is another runner who looks likely to find improvement dropping in grade. This race looks likely to have a moderate early tempo and she has speed, so expecting a positive run.
If the race does prove to have only moderate speed, that should also see (2) Chocolate Royal land in a forward position from a low barrier and get a good run.
Selections:
(4) Alainge
(9) Lady Thinkabell
(3) Empress Of The Sun
(2) Chocolate Royal
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(17) Common Interest, caught the eye when resuming. After missing the kick he was a long way back and then found plenty of trouble when looking for a run in the straight. He should be better for that run and could go close with better luck.
(12) Uptown Monk was an impressive maiden winner earlier in the prep before contesting stronger races. She had some excuses last weekend and can improve over more ground.
(2) Shadow Eagle was hitting the line strongly last time but perhaps got too far back early. This looks no harder, so expect him to challenge again.
(13) Sassy For Sure has had little luck in a few runs so far this prep and is drawn wide for this but with the addition of blinkers today she can perhaps settle more forward and be a threat late
Selections:
(17) Common Interest
(12) Uptown Monk
(2) Shadow Eagle
(13) Sassy For Sure
Suggested Bet: (17) Common Interest – Each-way
Race 3
(11) Dobbinair dropped in grade last start but had plenty to do carrying a big weight from a wide barrier and tired late in the run. He drops weight here and maps better, so expecting an improved performance.
(12) Hypernova found consistent form in stronger races last prep and resumes here. She can fire fresh, having not missed the placings first-up.
(14) Swiftie Harriet is another runner who resumes here. She performs well fresh and her recent trial looked very good. She is suited in this grade, but the wide barrier is a small risk.
After scratchings, a lot of the early speed has come out which should see (3) Zanthron push forwards with little trouble, he is at peak fitness 3rd up now and wont surprise
Selections:
(11) Dobbinair
(12) Hypernova
(14) Swiftie Harriet
(3) Zanthron
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(7) Never Ordinary has been impressive early in her career, winning two in a row since a close second in a strong race on debut. She is in great form and jumping from barrier 2 should give her map advantages. She looks the one to beat.
(1) Ole Go has been freshened since winning on debut. He smashed them in a recent trial so looks to have dropped no fitness, but the wider barrier does create some risk that he has to do extra work.
(8) Verzain put up a strong challenge to Never Ordinary last time. She should be fitter for this and lands in a prominent position from barrier 1.
(9) Lagunanini has shown speed in both career runs. She tired late last start, so looks better suited back in distance and will likely lead here.
Selections:
(7) Never Ordinary
(1) Ole Go
(8) Verzain
(9) Lagunanini
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(1) Different Gravy was in the market when resuming but disappointed and finished worse than midfield. He looks to have had excuses in that run and should be capable of bouncing back now he is fitter second-up and rising in distance. The form he produced last prep would be good enough to win this.
(5) Mcwoody was tough in winning last time out with a big weight. He rises in grade here but should also appreciate the rise in distance with a lighter weight.
(3) Mostly For Show was always travelling well when he won in a small field here last time, so should be suited again at this trip. There is not a great deal of speed in this race, which may suit him once more.
(2) Bootlegger was a winner in listed grade two starts back but couldn’t back that up last start when appearing to not appreciate a slow tempo in a small field, can bounce back in a different set up
Selections:
(1) Different Gravy
(5) Mcwoody
(3) Mostly For Show
(2) Bootlegger
Suggested Bet: (1) Different Gravy – Win
Race 6
(11) World’s My Oyster has had a freshen-up since winning three in a row in SA. Her career record is impressive and she is undefeated at this track she looks a progressive type who looks ready to tackle a race of this level.
(14) Cash has always shown talent but can mix his form. He ran a career peak to win here last time and if he can build again off that, he is a winning chance.
(12) Watersports has had a consistent preparation with three wins from her past four runs. She rises in level here but has a strong record at the distance and maps to settle in a good spot.
(7) Chief Little Rock is worth a close watch here making his Australian debut, he is a Group winner in the UK and while looks likely to get better over further his recent trial run was good and he may surprise
Selections:
(11) World’s My Oyster
(14) Cash
(12) Watersports
(7) Chief Little Rock
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
(1) Tycoon Star was impressive when resuming and running a close second in the VRC Sprint Classic. Fitter second-up now, he could improve again, having won at Group 3 level second-up last prep. He looks to bring the strongest form.
(10) Bassett Babe has made an impressive start to her career with two wins before placing in a Group 3. She maps to be forward again in a race that looks likely to have a hot tempo.
(6) Mathematician is undefeated in two starts and has impressed in both. She rises in level now and should be strong late, although she is likely to settle back from the wide barrier.
(4) Job Done was consistent last prep and comes into this race fresh. He has a strong first-up record and would not surprise at odds in a setup that appears favourable.
Selections:
(1) Tycoon Star
(10) Bassett Babe
(6) Mathematician
(4) Job Done
Suggested Bet: (1) Tycoon Star – Win
Race 8
Local (2) Watchme Win resumes and is undefeated in three first-up runs across his career. He also has a super record at this track and trip, and this setup looks perfect for him to perform at a strong level again.
(11) Hidden Motive gets to third-up and peak fitness. He is undefeated third-up in his career and has only missed the placings once in six starts at this distance. He should be positive in the run.
(3) Pisanello was hitting the line well when resuming but is generally a runner who improves with fitness. He is second-up now and rising slightly in distance, which gives him scope to improve.
Can’t discount local sprinter (1) Sghirripa back in his home state. He has a super record in black-type races over this track and distance and maps for a soft run from barrier 2.
Selections:
(2) Watchme Win
(11) Hidden Motive
(3) Pisanello
(1) Sghirripa
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 9
The Tasmanian Oaks has proven to be a strong form line for this SA Oaks lead-up race and that brings (3) Kazaru right into the frame after winning twice in a row. She comes into this fresh and the drop back slightly in distance should not be a disadvantage.
(2) Stung easily won the Clare Lindop Stakes over 1600m and the way she finished off there suggested the rise to 1800m will pose no issue. The wide barrier is the concern, as she could settle further back than she did last time.
The best win of (4) Freedom Flame’s career came over 1800m and she has been hitting the line well, suggesting she can improve again getting to these longer distances. She should race positively.
(6) Mating Call looked to have some class when performing strongly last prep but has not quite fired this campaign. She cannot be discounted in a race of this level if she can find that previous form again.
Selections:
(3) Kazaru
(2) Stung
(4) Freedom Flame
(6) Mating Call
Suggested Bet: (3) Kazaru – Each-way
Race 10
(8) Scandalize took control of the tempo at his last start and gave nothing else a chance, running away with an easy win. This race appears no harder and he maps to be positive again, so he could prove hard to catch.
(15) Tropical House is lightly raced and has a consistent record early in her career. She resumes here at a track and distance where she excels and her recent trials suggest she will return in good order.
(16) All Too Mysti won well with a big weight two starts back and perhaps did not handle Oakbank last week. Happy to forgive that run and expect improvement.
(1) The Shaper is down in grade from the race he won at Wagga in his last start, he may be tested at this distance but can get a suitable run from barrier 2.
Selections:
(8) Scandalize
(15) Tropical House
(16) All Too Mysti
(1) The Shaper
Suggested Bet: No bet
