Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 8 – (5) Heyoka each-way
Next Best: Race 3 – (1) Woodrow
Value Bet: Race 4 – (10) Fashionable
Turf Talk
- Rail out 9.5m.
- With the rail out this far and fine weather forecast, there is a big chance the track will favour those on speed, especially in the sprint races.
Stats that matter
- Ben Thompson has ridden 13 winners from his last 50 rides, with an ROI of +97%.
- The Schweida stable has produced 11 winners from its last 50 runners, with a positive ROI of +41%.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(1) Ever So Ready has been going around in the Saturday 2YO races and been competitive. Gets the in-form jockey Ben Thompson on board and should peak fitness-wise third up.
(6) Dolly Boom was good in the Debut at the Millions. She got back and made strong ground late. She has looked good in a trial to kick this prep off and Gollan will have her ready to go.
(2) Berzelius, (4) Home Tomurra and (5) Settle This have all trialled well enough to be chances.
Selections:
(1) Ever So Ready
(6) Dolly Boom
(4) Home Tomurra
(5) Settle This
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
Some very slow animals are engaged here.
(2) Big Tech has mixed form but had no luck at all last start. He ran into nothing but backsides for 300m in the straight. Not the easiest to trust, but he can win for sure with any luck in running.
(6) Captain Fenkel was good over the mile at start two last prep. Comes here first up at the mile off a trial where he made some ground late. He can be competitive.
(8) Tszuya is limited but has been okay this prep and fought hard to finish second at the coast last start. It is a massive change here with Thompson taking over from the apprentice.
Selections:
(2) Big Tech
(8) Tszuya
(6) Captain Fenkel
Suggested Bet: Back (2) Big Tech and save on (8) Tszuya, or quinella them.
Race 3
Very good run last start by (1) Woodrow. He was in a fight right to the line and just nosed out. He can push forward again and be suited by the rail being out. Hard to beat.
Nothing between (3) The Aviator and (4) Saturday’s Girl last start and expecting similar again here. Both have maiden wins in them and this is about their perfect trip.
I feel there is something there with (10) Lights Will Guide, but maybe 1600m would be better. A good gate helps and she goes in exotics.
Selections:
(1) Woodrow
(3) The Aviator
(4) Saturday’s Girl
(10) Lights Will Guide
Suggested Bet: (1) Woodrow
Race 4
(6) Galway Flyer has been in form for Waller and Thornton stays on. He has a good record on the horse. A Class 2 winner last start, this is not much harder and he likes this track.
(2) June has bumped into some handy horses early in this prep. Runner-up to Ramp It Up is good form from a couple of runs ago. Just two wins from 25 starts is the concern.
Not sure why they did not run (10) Fashionable in a winnable race 10 days ago, maybe this just suits the prep. She is a good stayer and was fourth in a Wakeful over the spring. Light weight and very well placed. The only query for me is the blinkers coming off for the first time and how she responds.
(3) Weona Redwood was a winner two back and then third to Absolute Sunshine, who has been in career-best form winning Saturday races. She can give this a shake.
(8) Heavenly Love is another that does not win often but is consistent. Rock-hard fit and can go in exotics, along with (9) Addition and (11) Propose.
Selections:
(10) Fashionable
(6) Galway Flyer
(3) Weona Redwood
(9) Addition
(2) June
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (10) Fashionable
Race 5
I have zero idea what to do with (1) Artful Girl. She was dominant in this grade a few runs back before being plain up in grade. She gets the claim, likes the track and trip too. She could win or run eighth and neither would surprise.
I have liked (10) Castello Grande all the way through and this is now starting to get suitable for him. He needs the 2000m. He gets it against a half-decent lot, but he might target a Derby if he puts a couple of wins together.
(2) Rock Ya has been starting under the odds and supported on potential. He was well held in a better race last start but is peaking fitness-wise and ready to show his best now.
(7) Dream Thinker is a new horse this prep. He has won three of his last four and attacked the line late last start. He is lightly raced and there is no reason he cannot keep improving.
(11) Mosamour beat nothing at the coast but the sectionals were great and Thompson stays on top.
Selections:
(10) Castello Grande
(2) Rock Ya
(1) Artful Girl
(7) Dream Thinker
(11) Mosamour
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
Hard to find the winner here. (1) Navy Nina, (4) Some Style and (6) Canara all went over the line together a fortnight ago. All have okay gates and decent jockeys. The best ride might be the difference. Maybe a slight lean to Navy Nina out of them for Gollan, but it is hard to be keen.
(10) War Is Brutal bolted in last start, but it was a heavy track and a weak race. Maybe see what the market does with him, with Thompson riding.
Selections:
(1) Navy Nina
(4) Some Style
(6) Canara
(10) War Is Brutal
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
(4) Duomo has been in good form but has bumped into the in-form Subterrain twice. He can be up on speed and will give backers a sight.
(1) He’s Tru Blu got back to last at his first start for Gollan and was beaten a long way. It was a good race and I feel the run was better than it reads on paper. Fitter now and Thompson is riding very well.
(10) Cyber City mixes his form horribly but might push on from the wide gate and lead these. The track might play into his hands on speed and he has had the four runs back now.
I think (7) Summation is a better horse than the last effort suggests and could go into wide exotics.
Selections:
(4) Duomo
(1) He’s Tru Blu
(10) Cyber City
(7) Summation
Suggested Bet: Split win bets, if prices allow, on (4) Duomo and (1) He’s Tru Blu
Race 8
(5) Heyoka is a nice mare with a good record of 17:4-1-6. She was around the money all prep without winning. I really liked the recent trial and from gate six she should get her chance to win.
(12) Saint Aldwyn has won two on the trot since joining Schweida. He led at the first win and took a sit the next time. Both were impressive wins and from gate one he looks to get the box seat and every chance again.
(3) Break Free, (10) Gambino and (11) Araletta may be the best of the rest, but they look more like place chances.
Selections:
(5) Heyoka
(12) Saint Aldwyn
(3) Break Free
(11) Araletta
Suggested Bet: Each-way (5) Heyoka
