Derby Day is one of the biggest betting days of the spring and, while the favourites will attract plenty of attention, there are some massive prices on offer for those looking left field.
Here are five bolters that Matt Welsh thinks can run well at huge odds, including a couple whose chances could improve significantly if the rain arrives. Maybe a small E/W ticket or throw them into exotics.
Race 3 – Wakeful Stakes
No.6 Churchill Rose ($26)
Churchill Rose looks as tough as old boots.
She stayed on strongly to win on rain-affected going at Murray Bridge two starts back and, while ultimately defeated by Kosaji last start, she didn’t give up the fight and was back in front past the post.
The 2000m looks ideal and Willo will look to send her forward, potentially tracking (1) Icelady.
I think she’s over the odds at $26. She may not be the most talented filly in training, but she has heart.
No.19 Girl With A Pearl ($71)
Girl With A Pearl is a blinkers horse if ever I’ve seen one.
She totally spat the bit out before the home bend at Warrnambool last start before knuckling down to the task late.
Her debut fourth at Seymour last campaign showed she had promise and she looks every bit a stayer.
Blinkers could bring noted improvement and, from gate four, she’s going to get a lovely run in the race, if she gets a start!
At $71, she’s worth keeping an eye on.
Race 4 – Rising Fast Stakes
No.5 Sweynesday ($13)
Sweynesday didn’t have much luck first-up in the Caulfield Sprint, his first start for Annabel and Rob Archibald. He got a mile back and came via the cape around the home bend before hitting the line the best of the backmarkers.
He was competitive with Jigsaw, Arkansaw Kid and Alabama Lass in New Zealand before making the move to Australia.
He also got the better of (20) Hankee Alpha when they clashed back in November last year, albeit the latter was most unlucky.
He looks well drawn and won’t be fazed whether it’s wet or dry.
He’s firmed up a bit in the market, but I still think he represents value at around $13.
Race 9 – Asahi Super Dry Sprint
No.11 Eagle Express ($31)
Eagle Express isn’t well in at the weights, but frankly she wasn’t last start either when she should have won the Alinghi Stakes. She was desperately unlucky there, having run well twice up in Sydney before coming south.
I think she’s come back a better mare this time in, and the best of her form last year also came in spring, as opposed to autumn.
A massive price at $31.
No.7 Hearcomesthestar ($51)
If the track is in the Soft 7 to Heavy range come the last, then Hearcomesthestar is in contention at massive odds.
She’s had two goes on a heavy track for two wins, the most recent over the winter months when she beat Coeur Volante and Bossy Benita, which proved handy form.
Granted, she had the pattern on her side, but she clearly has a liking for the slop. Her run in the Northwood Plume was better than the form card suggests.
If it’s wet, she will be a winner for me.
