Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet – Race 6 (4) Clevor Trever
Next Best – Race 3 (1) Aerial Pursuit
Race 1
A difficult way to commence racing at Bendigo. (8) Zephyr Song was underwhelming at Kyneton with the benefit of a relatively soft lead, though he was returning from a lay-off and can improve sharply on that.
Still would not want to be taking anything inside 2/1 about him.
The Hayes pair, (1) Cherry Hills and (7) The Alpina Penguin, have both impressed at the jump-outs and can win. (5) Hilily Hilily Hilo won a recent jump-out stylishly and may be overlooked because of her unfashionable stable.
Selections:
(8) Zephyr Song
(1) Cherry Hills
(7) The Alpina Penguin
(5) Hilily Hilily Hilo
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
(6) Kandinsky has been rightly supported since markets opened on Monday afternoon after finishing behind Tarntanya at Seymour last start, with that form line looking strong given Tarntanya was narrowly beaten in a $150,000 race last Saturday. There was a significant gap to third and, while it would be remiss to recommend anyone back a horse this short, it would not surprise me if he starts shorter than his current $1.75.
(8) Texture is a half to Zardozi, so you would expect him to appreciate more ground than this in time. He posted some nice ratings last preparation and is good enough to be competitive.
(7) King’s Anchor had plenty of expectation around him on debut but was a shade plain finishing fifth in a moderate maiden. The strong early speed there may have taken its toll first-up over 1450m. He has jumped out as if he has returned in good order. (9) Tsavo comes through the same race as Kandinsky and can improve, though is likely to settle at the rear again.
Selections:
(6) Kandinsky
(8) Texture
(7) King’s Anchor
(9) Tsavo
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
(1) Aerial Pursuit quickened instantly when asked for an effort in a recent Cranbourne trial. It was the slowest 800m trial of the morning, though the tempo did not appear overly strong, and he showed a nice turn of foot late. There has also been a touch of money for him early.
(15) Home Invasion was well touted heading into the Gimcrack but was beaten comfortably. She has trialled well, but I am not convinced there is a great deal of scope for improvement and she may have been a better early 2YO when more advanced than her peers. (13) Vega Vixen is very quick out of the gates, which is a major asset in this grade, while (9) Oceans Blue has jumped out as though she has ability.
Selections:
(1) Aerial Pursuit
(15) Home Invasion
(13) Vega Vixen
(9) Oceans Blue
Suggested Bet: Aerial Pursuit WIN
Race 4
(9) Varadero was excellent on debut at big odds behind the progressive Marsept. If she holds that form she should be favourite.
(8) Tatakai Uta was well supported on debut and ran second over five furlongs. He has jumped out well this preparation, though Mitch Freedman runners generally improve deeper into their campaigns. (1) Big Storm and (10) Astropartical have also jumped out well ahead of their debuts.
Selections:
(9) Varadero
(8) Tatakai Uta
(1) Big Storm
(10) Astropartical
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5
(2) She’s Pretty Rich settled last and finished strongly in a better race than this last start. She can settle much closer here in a race that lacks pace. (1) Couldthisbetheone will almost certainly lead and can produce a level of form beyond most of this field.
(6) Pearl King made an excellent Victorian debut, though he was assisted by the strong pace set last start and will likely settle toward the rear again in a race without much speed. (4) Strangethingdesire was strong on debut and the market’s expectation of roughly a length’s improvement at start two looks about right.
Selections:
(2) She’s Pretty Rich
(1) Couldthisbetheone
(6) Pearl King
(4) Strangethingdesire
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6
The market seems to be expecting (4) Clevor Trever to essentially reproduce the form he ran to in his first campaign, though I think he has improved. He has jumped out well and should enjoy a soft run, and he looks well placed to make a winning return. (6) Join The Que exploded last start, winning comfortably with fast late sectionals, and is a definite chance.
(2) Golden Spritz may be the one to control the pace, which will be important to his chances. (1) Centu Cavaddi may eventually prove the best horse in the race, but from the back in a race short of his ideal trip, he may be up against it.
Selections:
(4) Clevor Trever
(6) Join The Que
(2) Golden Spritz
(1) Centu Cavaddi
Suggested Bet: Clevor Trever WIN
Race 7
(18) Yuuki took a while to break his maiden but has performed at a high level and can win if the favourite does not run to form. (2) Prince Tycoon is clearly the best horse in the race, but as a known bleeder I could not back him. (9) Conflict can improve after being further back than midfield at Sandown Lakeside, while (16) Stormbourg can outrun his odds.
Selections:
(18) Yuuki
(2) Prince Tycoon
(9) Conflict
(16) Stormbourg
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 8
(10) Dramaticus is well placed after being a certainty beaten last start.
The market is anticipating a clear new peak, almost two lengths better than last start, which is not impossible but unlikely. Expect him to drift and may be backable closer to the start.
(9) Dark Simba will have to overcome the wide draw first-up. If he can slot in he could be the one to beat, though that is far from guaranteed. (6) Nearing Liberty improved markedly last campaign and looks well placed first-up after three good jump-outs, while (8) Epimeles has the most talent in the race but his career has been marred by injuries.
Selections:
(10) Dramaticus
(9) Dark Simba
(6) Nearing Liberty
(8) Epimeles
Suggested Bet: No Bet
