An epic Andrew Ramsden draws together a Sydney Cup winner, last year’s Ramsden winner, a Prix Ganay runner-up, an Adelaide Cup winner, an Australian Cup placegetter, and I’ve still not yet mentioned the lightly raced favourite many are already regarding as a Caulfield Cup prospect.
To say this is a stellar edition of the Andrew Ramsden would be an understatement.
The favourite, Zakouma, was heavily punted before being well beaten at Flemington on Anzac Day, despite finishing in quick sectionals. He rises markedly in distance here, attempting 2800m for the first time, which must be some concern.
Under the official handicap, he is not especially well in, rated only 78, while the last-start Sydney Cup winner is rated 107, yet they meet on level weights. His task is not straightforward. He is progressive, but I cannot justify the figure that the market is currently expecting of him.
Changingoftheguard is a strong, willing stayer who won a slowly run Sydney Cup 35 days ago. Many will argue that he had all favours and was perhaps flattered, but he did still win a Sydney Cup. He has also produced figures in the past that sit in and around that level, so it wasn’t a complete surprise; he had simply been out of form prior.
The market is implying that he will come off that peak quite significantly, and I agree, but to what extent? He can regress three lengths and still win this race.
There is not a great deal of early pressure, with only Sir Kingsford likely to challenge for the lead, so he should again enjoy a favourable run. It is far from outrageous to suggest that a last-start Sydney Cup winner should be inside 3/1 in an Andrew Ramsden, and that is where I have landed. An easy, relatively cheap bet to have.
I will also back Zarir, who has been aggressively placed in six Australian starts, including three Group 1 runs. He was much better in the Mornington Cup last time, slicing through the field from an impossible position on the turn. He will stay fourteen furlongs well and is absolutely good enough to win a race of this quality.
He may not need to reproduce his French form of two years ago, but he was runner-up in a Prix Ganay, a race won by the likes of Daryz, State Of Rest, Sottsass, Waldgeist and Cracksman, so it is comfortable knowing that he does have a performance like that somewhere in the locker. He may have needed time to acclimatise to Australian conditions and he may have been building toward a peak performance now. He is only six and still has plenty of racing to come.
I do not expect much interest in him, after being unwanted in the betting, starting 120/1 last time, so he may be another cheap runner to have on side against this highly progressive but unsuited favourite.
Andrew Ramsden Bets:
No.1 Changingoftheguard/No.7 Zarir
Away from the feature, Yes Yoshi was heavily backed and beaten at Bendigo a fortnight ago, but was desperately unlucky. What is most appealing is what the market expected of him on return. It implied he would improve approximately three lengths from his first preparation, and by the way he was travelling on the bridle over the concluding furlong, it’s hard to argue against that. That makes him an exciting betting proposition, and I expect him to go off favourite against the lightly raced and similarly progressive Marsept.
I don’t discount Marsept’s chances at all, though I do think Yes Yoshi will replace her as favourite.
In the last, I contend that Skippers Canyon should be favoured over the current favourite, Mr Blunt, who was excellent on Anzac Day when winning comprehensively. Mr Blunt had the perfect run, though, settling in the running line with cover before unleashing a strong sprint. Skippers Canyon was buried in the pack and finished off well, too. He should improve third-up and gains the expertise of Craig Williams, taking the reins from Will Gordon.
At prices bigger than 2/1, Skippers Canyon is very much of interest.
He may not replace Mr Blunt as favourite, but there is value in 2/1 in a race largely dominated by the leading pair.
Summary of Will’s bets for Flemington Saturday
Race 5 No.9 Yes Yoshi
Race 7 No.1 Changingoftheguard/No.7 Zarir
Race 9 No.7 Skippers Canyon
