Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 9 (1) Lyles
Next Best: Race 7 (11) King Of The Sea
Best Value: Race 2 (2) Audrey’s Lane
Best Roughie: Race 10 (5) Mafia
Turf Talk
- At writing, the track was rated a Soft 7 and there are showers forecast in the lead-up days to Saturday. Working on a Heavy 8 track, but if less rain falls than expected, we could remain in the soft range.
- The rail returns to the True position for the first meeting here since the start of April.
- Expecting a fair track in these conditions, with winners able to come from a variety of positions. It is also likely runners look to come well away from the rails in the straight in the wet conditions.
Stats that matter
- Josh Parr is the most in-form jockey coming into this meeting, having ridden 18 winners from his last 100 rides to return a POT of +17%. Dylan Gibbons has also been profitable for punters, returning a POT of +23.8% from his last 100 rides.
- The Hawkes stable brings a strong team to this meeting and their runners are in super form. From their last 100 runners, they have produced 22 winners and a POT of +26%.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(9) Thyme To Go resumes for her second prep. She showed speed in her debut campaign and recent trials, so with a light weight on her back she looks likely to settle in a strong position and take catching. (1) Keen To Exceed made his debut a month ago and ran well to finish second. He has had a tune-up trial since that run that he won, so looks capable of improvement from the debut. (3) Lady Catalina may find this an easier race than what she contested last start and maps for a softer run. (7) Uncertain Glory was a winner when on debut at Warwick Farm recently. This is a step up in level, but she won like a rise to the 1200m trip should be ideal.
Selections:
(9) Thyme To Go
(1) Keen To Exceed
(3) Lady Catalina
(7) Uncertain Glory
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
This looks likely to be a very open race, but happy to play (2) Audrey’s Lane as an each-way option given she has been very consistent in similar races in her last few starts, having run third in her previous three, all of those at a very similar level. She maps to potentially get run of the race from barrier three and like her coming back to the 1400m. (1) Flying Embers is dropping in grade today and is proven in wet conditions, so expect her to handle the track if the rain comes. (9) My Phar Lady ran a close third in a similar race to this in her last start at Rosehill. She maps well for a favourable run again and dropping back to the 1400m trip should suit, where she has a strong record (6:2-0-2). (12) Phyxius hit the line strongly in his resuming run. Expecting improvement to come today now he is fitter and rising to the 1400m trip.
Selections:
(2) Audrey’s Lane
(1) Flying Embers
(9) My Phar Lady
(12) Phyxius
Suggested Bet: (2) Audrey’s Lane – Win
Race 3
(8) Speedy Henry has been hitting the line strongly in his recent runs when running second in his last three starts. He looks due a win and could be set up to do so here with the right run if he can hold that form. Expect they will go quickly out in front, which sets him up to run over the top. (1) Exit Fee looks suited rising to the 1200m trip after a strong finish when first-up at Gosford. He jumps from a low barrier today and can settle closer in the run. (9) Wayburn was a good winner in his last start when proving tough to catch after leading the field. He is at peak fitness third-up now and if he can find the front again and put in a similar performance, he could prove tough to catch. (11) Bullion Hunter is another runner who is expected to settle on speed and be prominent in the run. The rise to the 1200m could be tough if he doesn’t get an easy time on speed.
Selections:
(8) Speedy Henry
(1) Exit Fee
(9) Wayburn
(11) Bullion Hunter
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(5) The Budgiesmugla has been building up to this run and is third-up now and rising in distance. He was a winner in his only other third-up run and is undefeated over the 2400m trip. Looks well placed for this race. (1) Thrice is third-up here in Australia. He ran well first-up but was never really in the race late second-up when tiring late. With a softer time out in front, he could be better suited up in distance third-up now. (6) Kurakka may find this lower benchmark race a touch easier than his last two previous races. Dropping in grade and getting back to the 2400m trip, where he has a strong record, should set him up to improve. (2) Casual Connection was outclassed in Listed grade last start and is capable of improving dropping back down in grade. Wet conditions will suit him.
Selections:
(5) The Budgiesmugla
(1) Thrice
(6) Kurakka
(2) Casual Connection
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(6) Chispa is a last-start winner at this track/distance set-up and won that race in easy fashion. He takes a step up in grade today but feel he will be capable of handling the rise in grade if he can put up a repeat performance to last start. (2) Bird Whistle was a good winner last time at Scone. She is capable of finding the front and leading this race up from barrier three. If she gets the lead softly, she can handle the rise in distance. (13) Sunsprite was a winner at Muswellbrook as a short-price favourite and now rises in level. She looks progressive and will likely appreciate the 1800m. (3) Boomeroo ran a big race last start in Adelaide when finishing third in a Group 3 race against the boys. She has had a gap between runs, which is the query, but dropping in class back to benchmark grade should help her chances.
Selections:
(6) Chispa
(2) Bird Whistle
(13) Sunsprite
(3) Boomeroo
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
This looks one of the more open races at the meeting and from a market perspective, there looks to be some good value, so keen to play two at double-figure odds. (9) Just Glamourous was a nice winner to kick off this prep and then backed that up with a solid performance carrying a large weight last start. She gets a better set-up in this, dropping in weight and up to the 1400m third-up now. Wet conditions should prove no issue. If we see the best form of (1) Declichy Boulevard, she could prove tough to beat. She was contesting Group-level races in her last prep, but the risk is that was a long time ago and she is coming in off a long break. It will take a big performance from her to win off the extended break, but the price is there to take the chance to find out. (4) Jellicious was flat in her previous start but expect she can bounce back fitter third-up now and getting up to the 1400m. (13) Sister Shay looks the likely leader from a low barrier. She sets up for run of the race and could prove tough to catch if unchallenged out in front.
Selections:
(9) Just Glamourous
(1) Declichy Boulevard
(4) Jellicious
(13) Sister Shay
Suggested Bet: (9) Just Glamourous & (1) Declichy Boulevard – Small win
Race 7
(11) King Of The Sea was a tough watch for backers in his last start when getting caught out wide before flashing home late to only miss by a small margin. Expecting he could be better suited on the more even Randwick track and dropping to the 2000m trip should prove no issue as he has won 3/3 starts at this distance. Looks set to peak third-up. (7) Starzintheireyes hit the line strongly in his resuming run over the 1800m. Fitter second-up and rising in distance should suit him. (10) Tazima is another who looks ready to get up in trip to the 2000m. He has a good record at the distance and has a light weight, so should be strong late. (14) Bestower has a good record when third-up and will also carry a light weight, so should be strong in the later stages of the race.
Selections:
(11) King Of The Sea
(7) Starzintheireyes
(10) Tazima
(14) Bestower
Suggested Bet: (11) King Of The Sea – Win
Race 8
(18) Spione kicked off this campaign with a nice win and then hit the line strongly from the back of the field to run a close third in his next start. He rises in grade but should appreciate a rise in distance and with a light weight he should be strong late. (13) Glad You Think So comes into this race off a last-start win at the end of March. He showed improvement across two recent trials, so looks to have lost no race fitness and has multiple wins at the 1600m, so expecting a drop back in distance won’t be an issue. (4) God’s Window drops in grade from the level he contested first-up. Ready for a rise in distance second-up now and fitter, but the wide barrier is a small knock. (3) Shadizi has been moderate in his two runs this prep but will find this a much easier level, so is capable of sharp improvement dropping back to benchmark grade.
Selections:
(18) Spione
(13) Glad You Think So
(4) God’s Window
(3) Shadizi
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 9
(1) Lyles is a speedy type who went undefeated in three runs last prep and resumes for a new campaign here today. He is undefeated over the 1000m and maps to push forward again and show his speed. Should prove hard to catch in this set-up. (2) Amazing Eagle resumes also. He has a solid record when first-up into a prep and his two recent trials have been solid, so he can fire fresh. (14) Massira looks better suited dropping back to the 1000m trip. He has a good record at this track/distance set-up, so looks better suited and a likely improver on last start’s performance. (3) Snack Bar rates highly in this field. He contested some stronger races last prep, so this looks a suitable kick-off point for him as long as he doesn’t find them too sharp over this shorter-than-ideal trip.
Selections:
(1) Lyles
(2) Amazing Eagle
(14) Massira
(3) Snack Bar
Suggested Bet: (1) Lyles – Win
Race 10
(5) Mafia has found super form in his last few runs, including a last-start win in a similar race. He maps for an ideal run up on speed from the inside barrier and looks a big price for a runner who appears to be in career-best form and well suited. (17) Invader Zim’s two best-rated runs through his career have come on heavy-rated tracks, so if we get a choppy track by the last he could be best suited in the conditions. He hit the line well first-up but may have improvement to give second-up and looks a main danger. (6) Mawjood looks suited rising up in distance to the 1400m, where he has had success previously. He has taken time this prep to find his best form but now gets to peak fitness. (12) King Tut is in strong form, having won two of four starts so far this prep. He is likely suited up in distance but will be back in the run and feel he will appreciate a drier track, so conditions will be important to his chances.
Selections:
(5) Mafia
(17) Invader Zim
(6) Mawjood
(12) King Tut
Suggested Bet: (5) Mafia & (17) Invader Zim – Win
