Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: R5 (9) Satono Jasmine / (13) Horizons WIN
- Next Best: R10 (4) Smashing Time WIN
- Best Value: R9 (6) Hawker Hall WIN
- Best Roughie: R2 (10) Hurry Miss EW
Turf Talk
- Expecting a Soft 5–6 track, with Randwick currently rated a Soft 7 and favourable weather forecast leading into Saturday.
- The rail is out +11m the entire, which should allow the track to play evenly overall, although runners getting off the fence and into the outside lanes may hold a slight advantage.
Stats That Matter
Hot
- M, W & J Hawkes are striking at 29.0% from their last 31 metro runners, returning an outstanding +42.4% POT.
- Nash Rawiller has ridden at a 26.8% strike rate from his past 71 metro rides, producing a +18.4% POT.
Not
- Annabel & Rob Archibald have managed just a 14.0% strike rate from their past 93 metro runners, returning -19.0% POT.
- Regan Bayliss is striking at just 3.3% from recent metro rides, with a -75.7% POT.
Race 1
Quality two-year-old race with a stack of formlines coming together. This looks a race that will become much clearer after scratchings.
The map should prove crucial and (3) Scintillation profiles as the likely map horse. The O’Shea & Charlton runner has trialled well, resumes for his second preparation and should enjoy the run of the race just behind what looks a strong tempo.
(7) Satin Summer strips fitter second-up and gets the blinkers on. The gate isn’t ideal but should find the three-wide line.
(5) Letters Patent was excellent last start, gains James McDonald and maps for a soft run along the rail, although the current quote looks short enough.
Selections
(3) Scintillation
(7) Satin Summer
(5) Letters Patent
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
(10) Hurry Miss goes on top in this week’s Highway. She was outstanding first-up against the pattern before failing to handle the Heavy 9 second-up. Back onto a drying surface, she draws perfectly and appeals at generous odds.
(11) Leovanni is the obvious danger despite the awkward draw, with Alysha Collett a positive booking.
(8) Maples chases four straight wins, gets good use of the claim and lands a perfect draw.
(1) Moon Sweeper rounds out the numbers but was slightly disappointing last time and looks under the odds.
Selections
(10) Hurry Miss
(11) Leovanni
(8) Maples
(1) Moon Sweeper
Suggested Bet: (10) Hurry Miss EW
Race 3
(1) The Mona Lisa was brave in defeat last start after covering extra ground throughout. She draws much better here, stays at 1600m and looks the horse to beat.
(11) All Star was saved from Canterbury for this assignment. The wide barrier shouldn’t be an issue with the long run to the first turn and she looks ready to win after a luckless effort last start.
(3) Free And Fast has won two in a row and should roll forward, while (4) Swift Legend is next best.
Selections
(1) The Mona Lisa
(11) All Star
(3) Free And Fast
(4) Swift Legend
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4
Wide-open race with genuine speed engaged.
(6) Aisle Two appeals at attractive odds. The filly really came of age last preparation, has returned with an impressive trial and looks well placed fresh over 1300m.
(5) Mahershala is still learning but was dominant last start and maps beautifully.
(9) Lady Invictus produced a career best performance winning last time and should again be prominent.
(2) Astronomix gets another suitable tempo and James McDonald goes aboard.
Selections
(6) Aisle Two
(5) Mahershala
(9) Lady Invictus
(2) Astronomix
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5
There doesn’t look to be much speed over the 1800m, making the map crucial. The race looks to revolve around two runners.
(9) Satono Jasmine is clearly the class runner but needs another well-judged ride from Chad Schofield after he produced a perfect steer last start. Her closing sectionals over 1600m suggest the rise to 1800m is ideal.
(13) Horizons is the obvious saver and makes this a genuine two-play race. She simply didn’t handle the wet last time. Go back two starts and she was excellent leading throughout. With very little pressure expected, she gets every chance.
(1) Aroha Stone is a genuine wet-track horse and appears under the odds if the track continues to improve.
Selections
(9) Satono Jasmine
(13) Horizons
(1) Aroha Stone
Suggested Bet: (9) Satono Jasmine / (13) Horizons WIN
Race 6
Another BM78 over 1800m with only moderate speed expected.
(8) Perfect Justice gets the nod after another consistent campaign. His closing work over the mile last start suggests 1800m will suit perfectly.
(11) Trapalanda was solid first-up before having no luck second-up when badly held up. Lloyd rides third-up when the gelding should be at peak fitness.
(3) Sly Boots and (6) Captain Fenkel both come off strong efforts and are worthy inclusions.
Selections
(8) Perfect Justice
(11) Trapalanda
(3) Sly Boots
(6) Captain Fenkel
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
Plenty of speed engaged over the 1100m.
(10) Zoufame gets the nod after chasing the talented Benevac last start. Back onto a drier track, with genuine speed engaged, he should enjoy the perfect run from the draw.
(1) Benevac was dominant winning last start but now faces a tougher map and much more pressure.
(9) Sir Les also improves on firmer ground, although how he settles will determine his chances.
(6) Oakfield Neptune rounds out the selections.
Selections
(10) Zoufame
(1) Benevac
(9) Sir Les
(6) Oakfield Neptune
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 8
Solid tempo expected over the mile and the wide barriers shouldn’t prove a disadvantage.
(10) Narbold appeals for the Waller-McDonald combination. He couldn’t muster early speed over 1400m last start but returns to his preferred mile and should settle much closer.
(15) Seven’s worked hard throughout last start and stuck on well. Peak fitness now and should enjoy a kinder run.
(3) Lugh looks over the odds and can roll forward from the wide draw, while (7) Electric Impulse continues to race consistently and is worth monitoring in betting.
Selections
(10) Narbold
(15) Seven’s
(3) Lugh
(7) Electric Impulse
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 9
Outstanding BM88 sprint with plenty of speed engaged.
Happy to oppose the short-priced (5) Ice Kool stepping to 1100m and likely to face far more pressure than previously.
(6) Hawker Hall profiles beautifully. The Kris Lees-trained gelding trialled well at Scone, maps for an economical run and reunites with James McDonald, who has partnered him to both of his career best performances.
(12) Big Red Tequila gets a favourable weight swing after finishing close to Ice Kool last preparation and is racing in career best form.
(4) South Of India is the knockout chance back with the McConville stable.
Selections
(6) Hawker Hall
(5) Ice Kool
(12) Big Red Tequila
(4) South Of India
Suggested Bet: (6) Hawker Hall WIN
Race 10
An above-average tempo is expected to close out the meeting.
(9) So You Pence remains the great unknown with no public trials, which is typical of the Matt Dale stable. Market support and parade ring assessment will be key indicators.
(4) Smashing Time was brave after working hard early last start and, with a better run in transit, looks capable of finishing the day with a win.
(5) Zouper Fund maps perfectly from the draw.
Selections
(9) So You Pence
(4) Smashing Time
(5) Zouper Fund
Suggested Bet: (4) Smashing Time WIN
