Summary of Best Bets:
Best Bet – Race 5 (2) Kohler Kid
Value Bet – Race 4 (1) Glass Of Rose Each-way
Turf Talk:
- Rail 7m
- Drying track and other than wanting the rail in further, should be a good surface and a decent card of racing.
- Barriers always important over the 1100m-1200m and 1640m starting points.
Key stats:
- Billy Healey has 8 winners from his last 50 runners and ROI +16.6%.
- Boris Thornton has 7 winners from his last 50 rides and a positive ROI of +23%.
Race 1
Looks a two horse race here.
I really liked the chances of (10) La Barrita in a 2YO Listed race last start. To the eye she was poor, but the tactics/ride and the fact she had lacerations could be an excuse. Draws a good gate for the first time and Thompson to ride.
The other chance is (3) Bottles Of Shells. Extremely well-bred 3YO filly returning for her second prep. Has moved north to the Munce yard and won a trial in good fashion leading into this. I’d rather 1100m but should map in front of the other main hope and get every possible chance.
(9) Our Girl Scarlett has a light weight and can be on speed for a while. The last 100m is a query.
Selections:
(3) Bottles Of Shells
(10) La Barrita
(9) Our Girl Scarlett
(2) Arctic Light
Suggested Bet: Win (3) Bottles Of Shells
Race 2
A lot of these have shown something but they aren’t classy.
(5) Disparate has been beaten at $2.40 and $3.40 in the two Queensland runs. Was wide and okay last time out. Still hard to dive into another short price if he comes up that price again.
(8) Parading Gus looks better than maiden grade but here we are after seven runs without a win. Third-best L200m in the two runs back but the gate isn’t ideal either.
Gear changes galore for (1) Iconify fresh. Got back but saved ground and had every chance. Can improve fitness-wise but has to off that run.
(2) Teelg has ability but a long time off the scene and surely needs a run.
(9) Rough Cause has been okay in trials and have to respect with Gollan. (4) Bowling Harry is the other who has been good at a trial and ready to run well on debut.
Selections:
(8) Parading Gus
(5) Disparate
(1) Iconify
(9) Rough Cause
Suggested Bet: Small Win Bet (8) Parading Gus
Race 3
Although (1) Duke Of Albemarle ran last, it was in a hot race last start. The winner bolted in and he wasn’t far off the placings. This is easier and better suited here.
(9) Tengun Tommy has good ability and will win races. Thompson rides for Gollan and the trial was good. Gate is not good but can be strong late. (14) Invincible Chase beat Tengun Tommy in the trial and can run well on debut.
Not too sure what to make of (2) Cool Gent, he was exceptional on wet ground last start. Wide gate is horrible from this starting point and is a concern.
(4) Holy Terror ran well on debut at Ipswich. That was a Heavy 10 that day. He stuck to the task and can’t see why dry would be an issue. Good gate and natural improvement from having that day at the races.
Selections:
(9) Tengun Tommy
(4) Holy Terror
(1) Duke Of Albemarle
(2) Cool Gent
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
Loved the way (1) Glass Of Rose had been going earlier in the prep. Midfield and beaten 3.9 lengths last start in a good Listed race. From the gate they should be midfield and actually feel she is well placed here after the claim.
(4) Voodoo Lass is a genuine chance but just the 1350m fresh is a little query for me. Trials have been good, carries 56kg after the claim and maps well with the good barrier.
(5) Damehood just got too far back at the first run for the Anderson yard. Was the best L200m of that race and Thompson riding again is a positive sign. Fitter and can sit in front of a few here.
(6) Trapedo is one I have fallen for too many times. Always good late splits but has only won 2 of 21, more for exotics.
(9) Hellarious is 2/2 this prep and bolted in last start. This is harder, so watch the market.
(10) Kaffir Lily will want further but is good on her day and I’d expect her to be good through the line. (2) Bollinger Miss has ability but is impossible to catch these days.
Selections:
(1) Glass Of Rose
(4) Voodoo Lass
(5) Damehood
(6) Trapedo
Suggested Bet: Small Each-way (1) Glass Of Rose if price allows
Race 5
A few in form here and an interesting little race.
(2) Kohler Kid is in career-best form and was only $10 in the most recent race, a 3YO handicap won by Estremo. Has the big weight but a good gate and looks the one they all have to beat here. Very good wet tracker but dry is no concern.
(4) Saint Aldwyn might be the other main hope. Has won three of four since joining Schweida, might box seat from the gate and gets 2kg off. No reason he doesn’t go close again.
Don’t know why (8) Giapponese mixes form so much but he is a good horse on his day and did win a recent Grafton trial. Could run well without surprising.
(3) Bluepinot is not one of my favourites but has a good run in him. Strong late when resuming behind Zoufani. Won his only start at this track with Waller and has to be respected.
Selections:
(2) Kohler Kid
(4) Saint Aldwyn
(3) Bluepinot
(8) Giapponese
Suggested Bet: Win (2) Kohler Kid
Race 6
I’m an absolute sucker for (13) Krumac. Last prep had form around the likes of Nightline and expected better than we have seen this prep. Comes off a low synthetic win but just 52kg here is a bonus. They have to be aggressive early and land midfield or better.
(3) Easy Love is a consistent mare who has won or placed in six of 10. Also handles all conditions and is fitter for two runs back. Draws a gate to get the run of the race and every opportunity.
(4) Wowzino beat home Easy Love last start and will be up on speed and out of trouble again here. Not one of mine but is a genuine chance here third-up.
(1) Blazing Harry, (6) La Cometa and (11) Addition can all be given some hope, mainly for those playing exotics.
Selections:
(13) Krumac
(3) Easy Love
(4) Wowzino
(11) Addition
Suggested Bet: Not a big spend but splitting win bets on (13) Krumac and (3) Easy Love
Race 7
Hoysted has placed (1) Ouroboros beautifully here under the conditions. Has 60kg but is nine rating points clear of the next best in the race. Gate isn’t great but has tactical speed and will push forward. Forget the last placing at Listed level last start and he can win.
Not sure if he runs his other two, (2) Aldofito and (7) Break Free. If he does, they are some hope in trifectas and exotics.
(3) First Mission was a horse I thought was just going to go through the grades this prep but he’s had the four runs without a win this time in. He will look the winner at some stage and does map well. He might not be as good as I thought he’d be though.
(10) Scheherazade has won four of seven and is 2/2 this prep. She doesn’t exactly put them away but winners win and she is hard to fault.
(6) Synergy In Motion and (8) Fasvara are winning hopes on their best form but the barriers don’t help either of them. Synergy In Motion might burn early and try to cross them all.
Selections:
(1) Ouroboros
(10) Scheherazade
(3) First Mission
(7) Break Free
Suggested Bet: Win (1) Ouroboros if $3.50+
Race 8
Think this will be scratchings galore with wide gates from this start.
(7) Metal Man was good last prep and may have just trained off and was lame last run. Won fresh last prep, trial was good and just has to overcome a sticky gate.
(8) Statement Of Truth is limited but this is the type of race that suits. Good gate means he can map well and he will give himself a chance to win. Should be thereabouts.
(9) Breezin has drawn outside gates in four of her five starts this prep. Just continues to run well and be around the money. Hasn’t been further than 1.9 lengths off in her last six runs. Only two wins from 17 starts though.
(13) Excenia is McEvoy’s and lightly raced. Still a little limited but this isn’t the strongest race you will find. More than a pass mark at her first Queensland run.
Happy to forgive (10) Nepravda’s last run when a slow recovery was reported. Another that can map well and is fitter third-up.
Selections:
(7) Metal Man
(8) Statement Of Truth
(10) Nepravda
(13) Excenia
Suggested Bet: No bet
