Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 8 (7) Thebudgiesmugla
- Next Best: Race 5 (6) Surf’s Up
- Best Value: Race 9 (9) Swiftie Harriet
Track
- Clear weather conditions leading up to and on race day, expecting the track will be presented as a Soft 5.
- The rail pushes out from the previous meeting and will be +3m the entire.
- In similar conditions recently, the track has played fairly, with runners getting a good chance to win from a variety of positions, so expecting similar here today.
Stats that matter
- As an apprentice, Jai Williams is finding form at an important time of year. He has ridden 24 winners from his last 100 rides and returned a POT of +40.6% for punters. He comes here with two rides.
- On the flip side, it’s not ideal for Mollie Fitzgerald to be out of form at this time of year as an apprentice. She has ridden only six winners from her last 100 rides and produced a POT of -51.2%. She has a positive POT return here at Rosehill of +9.4%, so maybe she can turn things around at this meeting.
- SA trainer Travis Doudle travels up here with one runner and has been in good form of late. He has produced 21 winners from 100 starters and a healthy POT return of +16%.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(1) Friendly Fire
(3) Heard Of Him
(4) Gridlock
(8) Iminastate
Feels hard to look past (1) Friendly Fire, who has had a consistent start to his career, including a last-start win at Randwick. He looks ready for the rise in distance after a fast finish last start, so expect he could prove hard to hold out here.
(3) Heard Of Him is a last-start winner who has shown speed in the early parts of his career, so can see him push forward and look to lead, which could suit in this small field.
(4) Gridlock hasn’t looked far away from a win in recent runs, having run third at his last two starts. Jumping from barrier three can land him in a strong position early in the run, so expecting another consistent performance.
(8) Iminastate hit the line strongly last start in a good-level race at Rosehill. The rise in distance should suit him and suggest he may appreciate getting onto better ground here.
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(1) Smashing Time
(8) Gorgeous
(3) Mother Goose
(9) She Swings
(1) Smashing Time has had a consistent start to this preparation, including a last-start win at Gosford. He gets a handy apprentice claim here, so gets down well in the weights and maps softly. Given his set-up and recent form, he should prove hard to beat again.
(8) Gorgeous ran a close third here at Rosehill when well supported last start. Expecting she will again be well supported and can improve rising in distance, but she will also be waiting on a run in one of the other races later in the program, so may not start here just yet. Hard to beat at this level if she does.
(3) Mother Goose was moderate when resuming but can be an improver now that she is fitter second-up and gets the soft map. If she looks to lead again, she can be stronger late and may also appreciate getting off the heavy going.
(9) She Swings hit the line strongly in her resuming run. She is likely to appreciate the rise in distance and is fitter second-up, so expect she can be strong late and go close again with the right run.
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
(4) Hammoon Sensation
(13) Winning Emotions
(3) Concoction
(16) Girrawheen
(4) Hammoon Sensation has been consistent this prep, including a last-start second in a similar race to this. He jumps from barrier one in this, so can get an ideal run close to the front, which will suit as there doesn’t appear to be a great deal of speed in this. Back to the 1400m will also suit.
(13) Winning Emotions is a last-start winner who was hitting the line well late. Rising to the 1400m will suit and he is in here with a light weight after an apprentice claim, so looks well set up to be running on strongly late again.
(3) Concoction ran on well late in his last start. That was a stronger race than this, so if he can run up to that level again, he could prove hard to hold out in this grade.
(16) Girrawheen has been moderate in her last two runs, but she maps much better here, so should get a better run today, which will help her handle the rise to the 1400m trip.
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(10) Skycatcher
(4) King Pedro
(5) Nobler
(6) Perfect Play
(10) Skycatcher knuckled down strongly late to win his last start at Canterbury. This is a sharp jump in distance but with how he was finishing off last start, this does look likely to be an ideal distance for him, so he appears well suited and progressive enough to handle the step up.
(4) King Pedro was good in his last start at Gosford and hits this third-up and at peak fitness now. Expecting we can start to see the best of his form now he is fit. He gets in well at the weights here after an apprentice claim, so looks set up to be able to produce his best.
Hard to knock the recent form of (5) Nobler, who has won two in a row now. He was running on well last start, so the rise to the 2000m should prove no issue.
This is a race that appears to lack much early speed, so can see (6) Perfect Play being one of the runners who looks to put himself on speed and if they run this at a moderate tempo, he could prove tough to catch late.
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(6) Surf’s Up
(8) Ertijaaj
(11) Tarzing
(13) Shotgun Bella
(6) Surf’s Up has looked close to a breakthrough win in her last two runs where she has finished in the placings in both. Now at peak fitness, she looks to have found her right set-up, dropping slightly in grade and jumping from barrier two. She lands in a handy position and Siena Grima takes a couple of kilograms off her back, which will help make her hard to hold out.
(8) Ertijaaj has won two since arriving in Australia. She is in strong form, so hard to knock her chances again if she continues to step up, but may have her work cut out early here from the wide barrier.
(11) Tarzing resumes. He won two of three starts in his debut campaign, showing good promise. One of those wins was first-up, so he is proven to be capable of firing fresh. Gets in well at the weights after a claim, so can figure.
There doesn’t appear to be a great deal of speed in the race, which could see (13) Shotgun Bella land in a prominent position in the run, which could give her every chance.
Suggested Bet: (6) Surf’s Up – Win
Race 6
(2) Candlewick
(16) Gorgeous
(3) Couples Retreat
(7) Royal Flare
Looks a messy race map to sort out here over the sprint trip. (2) Candlewick represents some value. She is resuming in this today and is a runner that has previously been good when first-up into a prep (3:2-0-1). Her recent trial was very good, so again expect her to fire fresh and while she is drawn wide, she likely looks for some cover early in the run anyway.
(16) Gorgeous waits for a run here as one of the emergencies, but she could be a strong chance in this if she gains a start given the race is messy and she is a get-back runner capable of producing a run big enough to be swooping over the top of them late.
(3) Couples Retreat is a last-start winner in a race that sets up very similarly to what she faces here again. She will rise slightly in weight off the back of that win but may help offset that slightly with one of the better race maps of the race, jumping from a middle barrier.
(7) Royal Flare has impressed in his short career, including a solid win at Caulfield last time. While he didn’t blow them away at Caulfield as expected, it was a solid performance and he is fitter again, so should figure.
Suggested Bet: (2) Candlewick – Each Way
Race 7
(16) Big Papa
(7) Lightning Glory
(8) Snack Bar
(5) Hezdarnhottoo
(16) Big Papa is an emergency but does look to have gained a start in the race after scratchings. Fair to say he performed below expectations when resuming, but he may not have handled the heavy track, so happy to give him an excuse and expect him to be capable of bouncing back in this today.
(7) Lightning Glory has won three in a row and again maps as the likely leader of the race, so should put himself in a strong position again to give himself every chance.
(8) Snack Bar gets into this race fitter second-up now and will be suited rising in distance. Gets every chance to find improvement from his first-up run, a feature here.
(5) Hezdarnhottoo got the run of the race in his last-start win at Caulfield. He faced tough conditions there that day and was still strong in the later stages of the race, so based off that I feel he will have no issues rising to the 1300m and back onto a drier track should help his chances.
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
(7) Thebudgiesmugla
(6) Black Run
(4) Caboche
(1) Portland
(7) Thebudgiesmugla was a super winner two starts back over this trip and then went to a stronger race on the quick back-up where he was midfield. He perhaps found the back-up a bit too sharp, so sets up well into this getting back up to the 2400m trip where he has been undefeated in three starts so far into his career and has a light weight, so gets his chance to take out a stronger race.
(6) Black Run looks the runner that is likely to take up the lead and put himself in a strong position. He is also undefeated over the 2400m trip, so if given a chance to get some soft sectionals out in front, he could be tough to catch.
(4) Caboche is capable of finding improvement in a better set-up for him here today. He is at peak fitness deeper into his prep now and will appreciate rising in distance, so should be hitting the line well late.
(1) Portland had conditions to suit when he took out the Listed Lord Mayor’s Cup last start. He is going well off the back of that and has won his only other start at 2400m, so expect he should go close again.
Suggested Bet: (7) Thebudgiesmugla – Win
Race 9
(9) Swiftie Harriet
(7) La Basilique
(8) Super Nui
(3) Ticklebelly
SA runner (9) Swiftie Harriet comes across the border with some strong recent form lines out of some stronger races, including two strong runs in Group company. The 1300m trip looks to be in her sweet spot and conditions should suit, so can see her running a strong race down in grade from her recent efforts.
(7) La Basilique kicked off this prep with two wins in a row but looked to have been outclassed in her last start at Scone. She is sharply back down in grade here today, so expecting an improved performance.
(8) Super Nui is at peak fitness third-up into the prep now and has been consistent in her recent runs, so looks suited in this grade and at this distance, but will need luck early in the run to find a good position from the wide barrier.
It looks a race with moderate speed in the early stages, so that could see (3) Ticklebelly potentially take up the lead and she could prove tough to catch from that position if the race is run at a moderate tempo.
Suggested Bet: (9) Swiftie Harriet – Each Way
Race 10
(3) Mawjood
(4) Fiddlers Green
(12) Seven’s
(16) Girijaala
(3) Mawjood was tough when he took out a similar race to this in his last start a fortnight ago. He is faced with a very similar set-up again and will drop some weight thanks to a claiming apprentice. The wide barrier is the risk, but he has the early speed to be able to jump and get across the field quickly into a strong position. Hard to knock his recent strong form.
(4) Fiddlers Green was second behind Mawjood in their last start. He gets track conditions that are more likely to suit him today, so could be capable of finding enough improvement in this set-up to turn the tables.
(12) Seven’s ran a close second in a similar race to this at Doomben last start. He sets up well coming back to the 1500m trip from a favourable race map, which could see him get a softer run just off the speed.
(16) Girijaala kicked off this prep with two nice wins and has run midfield in two similar races to this since those wins. The 1500m trip looks likely to suit her as she found the 1600m a touch too much two starts back and was doing her best work late last time over the 1400m. Gets a nice set-up here, which could help her get back to winning form.
Suggested Bet: No bet
