Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 4 (3) Tobikko
- Next Best: Race 1 (3) Sir Now
- Best Value: Race 6 (2) Cockatoo Rose
- Best Roughie: Race 8 (10) Jazz Affair
Turf Talk
- The track is currently rated a Soft 5 but there are some showers forecast for Friday as well as race day. Rain during the meeting could bring on faster downgrades but as a starting point will be working off a Soft 6.
- The rail pushes out from the previous meeting and will be +7m in the 1200m chute and +5m the remainder.
- Murray Bridge is a big open track, so despite the rail pushing out it should still play very fairly. Expect runners to come down the middle of the straight, with the advantage generally laying with runners who find cover in the run.
Stats that matter
- Harry Grace has been a big beneficiary of Jake Toeroek’s injury, picking up a lot of handy rides to help his transition in SA. He is clearly riding well with 15 winners from his last 100 rides and a POT return of +17.5%.
- Apprentice Brooke King is down on form in recent weeks with a POT of -6.8% in her last 100 rides, but she rides Murray Bridge well with a winning strike rate of 11.7% and a big POT of +40.3%, so could turn her form here.
- Jess Tzaferis’ stable has been building some strong momentum of late, producing 13 winners from her last 100 runners to return a POT of +21.4%. She brings three chances here today.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(3) Sir Now is at peak fitness third-up into his prep. He has been undefeated in other third-up runs so far in his career and found winning form last start. A 1000m specialist who can go close in an ideal set up.
(8) My Zephyr was a good winner here last start. She rises in grade for this today, which could test her, but she gets in very light at the weights so should be strong late.
(1) Volcanic Express resumes from a long spell, which could be the risk, but last time we saw him he was going around in a Group 1 race and will find this a much easier race. He goes well at this track and could surprise off the long break.
(7) Super Alana is nearing peak fitness now 3rd up into her prep, she was solid last start but may be better suited in better conditions and can be strong late with a light weight on her back.
Selections:
(3) Sir Now
(8) My Zephyr
(1) Volcanic Express
(7) Super Alana
Suggested Bet: (3) Sir Now – Win
Race 2
Hard to look past (1) Brave Hustler in this race given he is undefeated in two runs so far in his career, including a last start win in a Group 3 race. He should find this a touch easier and gets in well at the weights after an apprentice claim, so should prove tough to beat if he holds that form.
(8) Pretty Baby was well supported when resuming and while she had some excuses in her run that made it tough, she still ran on well enough late to suggest she can improve with extra fitness now and will be strong late with a light weight, you would expect.
(2) Lalor has had the two career starts to date, running third in both of those and making a consistent start to his career. His recent trial was solid, so expect he will be around the mark again.
(7) Damizer was a good winner on debut. He showed speed there so looks the likely leader again. If he can get a soft lead out in front and conditions suit, he may take catching.
Selections:
(1) Brave Hustler
(8) Pretty Baby
(2) Lalor
(7) Damizer
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
(2) Virtual Illusion finds the easiest race he has seen for his last few starts having contested black type races through the carnival and putting in a solid effort at Flemington last time. He is down in grade, maps well from barrier 2 and with a light weight could be an improver and represents good value.
Hard to knock the recent form of (3) Like A Drifter who has won three in a row now. He will rise slightly in distance from last time which could suit and gets in well at the weights. This is a step up in level, but he gets conditions to give him every chance.
(4) Shystar looked disappointing last start but potentially had excuses in that performance. She will appreciate better conditions and the bigger track here so can be an improver.
(7) Harmonic Dancer was well supported when resuming but did look to tire late in the run, now fitter 2nd up expect he could be capable of finding improvement and perhaps better suited at this distance.
Selections:
(2) Virtual Illusion
(3) Like A Drifter
(4) Shystar
(7) Harmonic Dancer
Suggested Bet: (2) Virtual Illusion – Each Way
Race 4
(3) Tobikko ran into the placings when resuming over this same track and distance set up. He presented to win but could not beat some fitter horses on that day. He is fitter now himself and is dropping in grade which could bring him on to find improvement.
(6) Stylish Flipper is at peak fitness third-up having been a winner third-up last prep. He maps for a soft run and suggests he is suited at the 1100m trip now.
(2) Lofty Thoughts is first-up here today. He has been consistent in previous first-up runs having never missed the top three, so expect he can fire fresh, but the wide barrier could give him an awkward run despite the chute start.
(14) Zoutrail has placed in her last three starts and while they may have been in slightly easier races, she gets a good set up here which could see her surprise at big odds. She should be strong late with a light weight on her back.
Selections:
(3) Tobikko
(6) Stylish Flipper
(2) Lofty Thoughts
(14) Zoutrail
Suggested Bet: (3) Tobikko – Win
Race 5
(5) Isuspectjeu had kicked off this prep with some moderate results but was much better suited here last start and turned that form around for a good win. She gets a similar set up again today and will only rise slightly in the weight so expect her to put in a similar performance and looks good value.
(3) I Catchem Fox is on the quick backup having put in a tough performance in the Apsley Cup. Better conditions here today should suit and he looks likely to find cover in the run which may also suit him better. Should go close again.
(2) Maracourt was a fast finisher in a similar race to this last start. He generally gets back and hits the line strongly so if he can get the right run and not get too far back today, he could prove hard to hold out.
(7) Breathless Spirit has won two in a row over in Victoria and is in a good streak of form. He goes well at this distance so could be capable of now stepping up in grade.
Selections:
(5) Isuspectjeu
(3) I Catchem Fox
(2) Maracourt
(7) Breathless Spirit
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
(2) Cockatoo Rose has been consistent so far into her career and especially when she is first-up into a prep having won two from two previous first-up runs so far in her career. She showed improvement across her recent trials when winning her most recent at Morphettville so giving her every chance to again put in a strong first-up performance and she sets up for a soft race map.
(10) Sassy For Sure has been hard for punters to catch in recent runs but is getting to Murray Bridge for the first time and rising to the 1200m trip so she may appreciate this set up on the bigger track and could prove hard to hold out.
(15) Extra Hot looked to be only winding up real late in her previous start, so looking for her to be better suited here today getting back up in distance and onto the bigger track.
(12) Empire Grace has had two runs this prep finishing midfield in both but gets her chance to improve at peak fitness 3rd up and is slightly down in grade. Getting here to the bigger Murray Bridge track should also help.
Selections:
(2) Cockatoo Rose
(10) Sassy For Sure
(15) Extra Hot
(12) Empire Grace
Suggested Bet: (2) Cockatoo Rose – Each Way
Race 7
(3) Naralinga was slick in his last start win at Mount Gambier when he blew his rivals away to win by nearly six lengths. This is a step up in grade today, but he will get every chance for another big run at the bigger track so if he holds his level from last start he will go close.
(2) Murph has run midfield in his last few starts but gets a better set up here back to a track where he has had good success and jumping from barrier three with Rawiller on board suggests he will get a positive run.
(7) Act Natural was solid when resuming but he had to work from a wide barrier which may have taken it out of him late in the run. He is fitter today and gets an easier race map from the chute start so can improve.
(5) Riche D’Amour was hitting the line strongly here in his last start so looks suited rising in distance and with the extra fitness third-up he is capable of going closer today.
Selections:
(3) Naralinga
(2) Murph
(7) Act Natural
(5) Riche D’Amour
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
The recent form of (10) Jazz Affair looks quite moderate on paper, but she has been competing in stronger races across the border and having had genuine excuses in her last pair of runs, especially last start when she did not handle the wet Caulfield track. She returns to SA and finds herself down in grade and back to a track she goes well at so expect she could be a sharp improver.
(1) Surprise Coming was hitting the line well when resuming here recently. He is fitter second-up now and ideally suited up to the 1400m distance so gets every chance in this set up.
(3) I Am Velvet is another runner that looks likely to appreciate the rise in distance and dropping slightly in grade. He needs to turn the tables on Surprise Coming but this set up gives him a chance.
(5) Dobbinair comes out of the same last start run as the previous two runners. He was a sharp winner two starts back at Morphettville but looked below that form last time. Can go closer if he gets back to the form out of that recent win.
Selections:
(10) Jazz Affair
(1) Surprise Coming
(3) I Am Velvet
(5) Dobbinair
Suggested Bet: (10) Jazz Affair – Each Way
Race 9
Tough way to end the meeting.
(5) Nicajon improved to win in his last start when finding a suitable race at Morphettville after some tougher recent runs. This sets up similarly for him remaining at the 1600m and expect that he will appreciate this track so looks the one to beat again.
(12) Grinzinger Halo has had little luck in her last few starts. She gets out to the bigger Murray Bridge track today which will likely suit her race pattern better.
(14) Divine Fire is rising in grade but maps well here so should find herself getting a soft run up on speed which could make her hard to catch if she gets her own way out in front.
(6) Serinite Illusion is stepping up in grade today but has won 2 of his last 3 runs so looks capable of handling the rise in trip and is forging a good record over the 1600m so should get a chance.
Selections:
(5) Nicajon
(12) Grinzinger Halo
(14) Divine Fire
(6) Serinite Illusion
Suggested Bet: No bet
