Bet Legends analyst Shaun Beirne has been in outstanding form with his recent lays, consistently identifying vulnerable favourites and under-the-odds runners before raceday.
Saturday’s card is no different, with Beirne happy to take on a pair of well-backed runners at Ipswich and Randwick while keeping a close eye on developments in one of the feature races of the day.
“We’ve had a bit of luck with our lays lately, but our mantra remains the same: when we’re against a horse, we’re happy to take punters on. If they beat us, they’ll be rewarded handsomely,” Beirne said.
Ipswich Race 7 – Belvedere Boys ($3.80)
Belvedere Boys has been popular with punters after an unlucky run last start, but Beirne believes the market has overreacted.
The gelding enjoyed an outstanding start to his career, winning six of his first 14 starts, however he has now gone 11 runs without a victory.
“He was unlucky last start, there’s no doubt about that, but I think the market has gone too far the other way,” Beirne said.
“He maps to be nearer last than first and his overall profile suggests he should be longer than the current price.”
Special: Belvedere Boys to finish 1st or 2nd @ $4
Randwick Race 6 – Tazima ($2.60)
Tazima profiles as a horse likely to settle towards the rear in what appears only a moderately run race.
While Beirne acknowledges the gelding has a strong ratings profile, he cannot justify the current market price given the anticipated race shape.
“The ratings are solid enough, but I can’t find anything that says he should be as short as he is in betting,” Beirne said.
“There are a few runners at much bigger prices that map more favourably and that’s often where the value lies.”
Special: Tazima to finish 1st or 2nd @ $3
Randwick Race 8 – Watch this space
The market for Randwick’s feature sprint remains difficult to assess with Amazing Eagle still waiting to secure a start.
His potential inclusion would have a significant impact on the betting percentages and shape of the market.
“It’s a tricky race at the moment because Amazing Eagle still doesn’t have a run and he takes up a fair chunk of the market,” Beirne said.
“What I will say is that at the current prices I’m not rushing to back either Bustling or Sunshineinmypocket. There could be a better opportunity once the final field is settled.”
Special: Check back for a late betting promotion.
