A terrific day of racing for the column to return to after a stint on the sidelines, gallivanting across Japan. It’s Finals Day at Flemington, headlined by another highly competitive edition of the Winter Championship Final and supported by a strong undercard of deep, competitive races. It does, however, shape as a tricky program to assess.
Winter Championship Final
The feature of the day is headlined by Al Duca, who, for all his admirable consistency, in my view doesn’t possess the ratings edge over this field that the market is currently implying. He sits around $2.90, which appears short, having been beaten at the course and distance last start. He does meet Seafall, who beat him there, two kilos better off at the weights, but it’s an interesting point, even so.
I do concede that he is well suited and well placed under the conditions. He will make the running, likely without significant pressure, and is very low variance, so he’s highly likely to produce a strong piece of form, one that will probably be good enough to place him in the finish. But it is all about price, and I simply cannot justify backing him inside 2/1.
Away from the favourite, there’s not a great deal to account for.
Jimmy The Bear, who won this race last year, is a winter champion, but isn’t going quite as well this time around and must shoulder 60kg.
Electric Impulse is the most intriguing runner from a betting perspective. He was well fancied in the Swan Hill Cup last start after finishing strongly behind Meridius and King Zephyr at Sandown first-up. He peaked over a mile third-up last preparation, and it is reasonable to expect that to be the exact blueprint Henry Dwyer has followed into his third run this campaign here.
Taj Rossi Series Final
In the Taj Rossi Series Final, the Sydney visitor Marwooba provides an alternative option for punters, away from the main lead-up race, which rated poorly. Won by Fontein Jewel, the pace was frantic, and the race completely fell apart over the final 400 metres. Perhaps they were entitled to weaken after such a frenetic first three-quarters of the mile, but the overall rating was underwhelming nonetheless.
Marwooba, who travels south, won well in what was a farcically slow overall time, albeit with excellent closing sectionals. The rise to a mile should pose no concern, although she may lack the grounding of some of her rivals, having come through two slowly run races.
Because of those race paces, however, she remains largely unexposed, and that’s where the interest lies from a betting perspective. There is a chance she is markedly better than what we’ve seen so far. I think she deserves to be favourite.
Mahogany Series Final
The Mahogany Series Final is consistently an excellent race for three-year-old staying horses each and every season, and this year is no different. Kings Reflection, a winner during the storied Warrnambool carnival, has since had two runs and performed well on both occasions. Last start, he produced excellent late sectionals from the rear in a slowly run race over ten furlongs.
He maps well here and looks set to peak, but I could not warrant his price, 2/1. I price him closer to $3.30, so I don’t believe his price to be any value at all.
The bet of the day is Rainsun, who made a sustained looping run to beat Nearco Frod, who then went to Sandown on Wednesday and won convincingly. Of course Nearco Frod improved from that run, but it still reinforces the strength of the form and validates the rating Rainsun produced to beat him.
I’ve marked Rainsun a $6 chance, and he looks a terrific early bet to lock in, as I’d expect him to firm steadily towards the off.
Sunsprite is another runner worth close monitoring, having started equal favourite with Decalogue last start and now meeting him significantly better off at the weights. He was unsuited, settling too far back in a slowly run race on that occasion, but should be able to take up a more forward position here. With that in his favour, he has the scope to improve sharply and appeals as a runner to have on side against the two favourites.
Leilani Series Final
The mares clash over 1400 metres in the Leilani Series Final, where Duchess Zou heads the market after a consistent campaign that has yielded two wins from seven starts. She deserves her position as favourite, but I can’t justify her current price of $3.50.
Stylish and Fancify, who also command a substantial share of the market percentage, both have great chances. However, Barbiesdreamworld is the runner that interests me most. She was well supported first-up at Swan Hill to beat Ka Ying Cheer, who rates similarly to Duchess Zou, but failed to fire. That said, she’d only had one jump-out leading in and may have needed the run.
She has since jumped out very well between runs and is capable of reaching the level required to win a race of this quality. Her spring culminated in the two best runs of her career, narrowly beaten in the $500k Country Final on Oaks Day before finishing third in the Summoned Stakes. She has evident talent, and there’s every chance she is still improving.
Will’s suggested bets:
- R2 Marwooba
- R3 Barbiesdreamworld
- R4 Rainsun and Sunsprite
- R7 Electric Impulse
