(6) Mordu is crying out for this sort of trip. Produced some of the day’s best late splits in both runs over 1000m and 1100m but has just struggled to hold a spot early in his two races. Gets a positive jockey change with Harry Coffey riding today and crucially steps to 1443m. Has a fitness edge over the favourite and think he can break through.
(2) Bjorson worked home well in a strong Maiden at this track on debut. Will be better for that run and is also suited stepping up in trip. Right in the game. Looks pretty good speed which should allow him to balance up early then get to the wider lanes in the straight.
(9) Razanne hails from a good stable and has trialled up nicely for her return. She showed good talent last campaign and has the ratings in the locker to win this. Query is first-up, 1443m on a heavy deck.
(10) True Lies can run a cheeky race at odds. Good behind a subsequent winner last start and will only be better served now third-up.
Suggested bet: Backing Mordu, saving Bjorson.
Surprised (2) Crypt isn’t favourite. He got a mile back first-up, was badly held up when trying to get to the outside before flashing home into second. Best last 600/200m splits of the race there. He was first-up off a long spell having been gelded, so should strip a lot fitter. He was good in one run last campaign when 5th to Tres Magnifique in a strong form race at Ballarat, so that was no fluke fresh. Two queries: the track was put out a Heavy at Sale last start but wasn’t, so genuinely wet ground is still a little query and jockey Damien Thornton hasn’t ridden a winner in his last 50 rides.
(6) Kandinsky looks to have freshened up well judging by a recent jump-out. On face value was disappointing when leading and folding like a deck of cards on an on-pacers deck at Bendigo but form out of the race has been solid.
(4) Ilustrious Warrior is 41 days between runs and going from 1000m to 1200m, which is a query, but he comes through a reasonable set of races in SA and does appear to be looking for the trip.
Suggested bet: Backing Crypt, if the track plays evenly and horses can make ground think he’s the horse to beat.
Cracking race. Big rap for (6) Dynamite Dancer. He was scratched at the barriers at his first attempt to resume this campaign before ultimately being nabbed in the shadows of the post by Audio Pop Cam fresh. That was a strong race and he did a good job to stick on as long as he did. Strips much fitter here second-up you’d imagine and I think he can control the race on speed.
Think (4) Poker can improve. He stuck on OK first-up at Flemington and was coming into that off a 41 week spell, so should derive huge benefit. Had trialled nicely prior. Won a good race on a heavy deck at Bendigo on debut, beating Gunz who has gone on with it since. Maps ideally.
Suggested bet: Think there’s two strong winning hopes. Backing Dynamite Dancer at $4, saving Poker at $6.
Can see a world where (2) Prestar starts odds on here. Got the 62kg but he carried 61kg without issue at Caulfield two back and frankly he deserves the weight. He bolted in to win his maiden on a heavy deck and will have no issue with the conditions. Far rather be drawn wide late in the day as Mott will be able to ride him according to how the track is playing. Think he’s better than these and think he will win.
Liked the first up run of (5) Talkin’ Italian who resumed off a long spell having switched stables from David Jolly to Josh Cartwright. Should strip much fitter. Remains to be seen if gate one will be a positive come this stage of the day.
Suggested bet: Prestar looks a great bet at $2.50.
