Turf talk:
- All eyes on the sky with rain forecast Saturday afternoon. If that hits, the track will chop up very quickly. If it doesn’t, we could be dealing with a Soft 6…
- 20-30km/h northerly winds are also an important factor. Blow into their faces down the side of the track, out of the 1000/1100/1200m sprint chute. If it’s at the higher end of that range cover becomes more important.
- They held jump-outs here out wide on the course last week, suspect the outside 10m will again be a no-go zone.
- Bit of a wait and see on the rain, but suspect horses stalking the speed and peeling into middle lanes might have an edge.
Key stats:
- Jabez Johnstone is the jockey to find. He’s going at 22% his last 100 (PoT 26.1%). He had a terrific book of rides.
- Damien Thornton has only ridden five winners from his last 100 and zero from his last 50.
- Dan Clarken and Oopy MacGilivray have two key runners over from SA and they cross the border in form: 23 winners form last 100 at 10.9% PoT.
Race 1
Terrific race.
(2) Angels Fury is the best jump-out horse of her generation – not necessarily a tag you want! However, after failing when backed off the map on debut last time in, she returned with a totally dominant win at Bendigo first up this campaign. She defied a really strange drift to win that race with several gears up her sleeve. She has trialled brilliantly since. Wide draw suits a big filly out of the chute start. She’s the starting point and may well be the finishing point.
(15) Portanari may prove the main danger. She had absolutely no luck first up here over 1000m. Got back, held up, flashed late – it was a terrific run. Step to 1100m is ideal and Willo taking over is a huge plus.
(10) Ms Port Melbourne has gone well in a couple of her grass track jump-outs. She has great early speed and should lob somewhere near the lead from gate four. Can run well on debut.
(3) Fontalicious showed great speed to win at Cranbourne first up. Had trialled well prior and can probably cross them from the wide draw. Bit of form already to come out of her last win.
Liked (6) Egyptian Dancer first up at Caulfield and she ran well, albeit with a soft run. Extra 100m suits her. This looks a stronger contest.
The first two trials from (4) Tag The Bride this time in were excellent, the most recent not so much. Not sure if it was the heavy track there at Pakenham? She has always shown talent in trials and went nicely on debut last campaign.
(2) Angels Fury
(15) Pontanari
(10) Ms Port Melbourne
(6) Egyptian Dancer
Suggested bet: Keen on Angels Fury. Equally think Pontanari is the main danger.
Race 2
Step to 1100m really suits (2) Zouper Fund. Thought he trialled just fairly leading into the preparation so taking that into account he should improve markedly second up with another soft jump-out under his belt. Needs a good ride from gate one as he could well end up buried. Won a handy form race at the trip on Ballarat Cup Day last year.
Worth having a small ticket on (7) Ravenclaw. His 1100m record is very good, including a booming win at Rosehill first up on a Heavy 10 when last in work. He won that BM78 by 3.75L, beating Catch The Glory who went on to win a G3 Warra and Birthday Card Stakes. Now, look, he’s had a long time on the sidelines and his form went south after that big first up win, so might not be the same horse. But a trial was sound and you don’t need much on your side when taking 70/1! Clearly has some sort of beathing issue judging by the nasal strip going on, hopefully they are on top of that.
(6) Luna Cat is airborne. She is again going to get a gun run in transit from a soft draw. Rises in weight but is right in the zone.
(4) Markdel has been flying since joining the Williams stable and Craig jumps back aboard Saturday. Going to get a fair way back the gate but gets a strong tempo to suit. Prefer him at 1200m but can won here.
(14) Zethus is worth including in exotics at mammoth odds. No luck last start. Wide draw suits. Can charge late.
(7) Ravenclaw
(2) Zouper Fund
(4) Markdel
(6) Luna Cat
Suggested bet: Barrier 1 scares me for Zouper Fund. Something tiny E/W Ravenclaw
Race 3
Gee, nice horse (1) Like A Drifter. Comes over from SA with an imposing picket fence. Big horse that relishes getting room. Key that he’s drawn off the fence, so gate seven is ideal. On the quick back-up from a dominant win at Murray Bridge. Tala Hutchison has ridden him all campaign and is again aboard, which is important as he can lay in.
Like (4) Celtics as a horse. He’s still quite green and got shuffled back at a key stage at Sale last time out. Big boy who will only continue to improve with racing and from gate four he should get a nice run in the race. Getting a senior back aboard is also a plus as he does plenty wrong.
(5) Cruiserweight made a good start to his Australian career over the Swan Hill Carnival, having made his debut in New Zealand. Trialled with the very smart Hard Kick between runs and went nicely. 1400m looks absolutely ideal and gets Willo on board.
(8) King Maywin was scratched from Sandown to race here. Stable are flying and always had an opinion of this bloke. Can make his own luck on speed.
(2) Davida will also give a sight on speed.
1 Like A drifter
(4) Celtics
(5) The Cruiserweight
(8) King Maywin
Suggested bet: Like the race. Backing Like A Drifter and Celtics.
Race 4
Horses don’t trial much better than (6) Lady Verity. She was outstanding in her recent Caulfield jump-out and Jamie Mott getting down to 54.5kg to ride her is a positive lead. Her two wins last campaign were excellent. 1100m is a lovely kick-off point for her, she’s drawn well and she’s got huge upside.
(2) Signature Scent had a soft jump-out leading into this first-up run. She’s coming off a short spell so should have residual fitness. Mare that likes the sting out of the ground and she was a touch unlucky first up this track and trip in the autumn.
The toppy (1) Cavalry Girl missed the kick two back and then atoned with an authoritative win on the Heath last start. End of 1100m on a genuinely rain-affected track is some query.
(6) Lady Verity
(1) Cavalry Girl
(2) Signature Scent
(8) Our Wind Chymes
Suggested bet: Lady Verity looks awfully hard to beat. Happy to take the $3.50.
Race 5
(2) Sir Atlas has only had one go at 2000m and it was back in March 2024 when far from disgraced in a stronger race at Flemington. He was terrific from the tail at Sandown last start in a much stronger race. Right up in the weights now down in class but won a Country Mile Final here at Caulfield with 59.5kg, having won the start prior with 61kg, so not hugely worried. Just going to need some luck from gate two as he will drift back.
(13) Tarazal interests at odds. Started his Australian career with Peter Snowden and had a good second Australian campaign but form tapered off thereafter. Poor in four runs for a new stable last campaign but now finds himself with the Archibald’s as an 8yo and thought the first up run at Warwick Farm had merit. They’ve been generous with his ratings drop, going from 82 to 71 in his last couple of starts, now getting in with 51.5kg after the claim.
(10) Belle Savior got a soft run on speed this track and trip when winning dominantly. This is tougher, but that was her first go at 2000m and she clearly likes the sting out.
(12) Amleto and (9) Prince Eric were both well beaten by Belle Savoir but both have the ability and weight swing to turn the tables. Liked how Prince Eric hie the line there on a day it was hard to make ground, but he’s again going to spot them a big start from the draw.
(2) Sir Atlas
(13) Tarazal
(10) Belle Savoir
(9) Prince Eric
Suggested bet: Small plays Sir Atlas/Tarazal
Race 6
(6) Decalogue was scratched from a wide draw at Flemington and it may pay dividends with a better gate and lovely map. Granted he had the pattern in his favour when winning last start but he was totally dominant and only goes up 1kg for the privilege.
(3) Our Chief gets 3kg off Decalogue from their last meeting, but I thought he got a soft enough lead there and struggle to see him turning that tables. That said, he was only third up and having his first go at 2000m for the campaign, so may have a little improvement to come.
(6) Orlova is going a great job rising through the ranks in SA and she looks like she will eat up 2000m. On the quick back-up from a dominant win at Murray Bridge last weekend and maps for a nice run in transit.
Big fan of this colt (10) Ichnusa who was impressive winning over a mile on debut at Seymour. He ripped home the best last 200m split of the meeting in winning off what was a moderate tempo and the form out of the race has been strong. Loved his jump-out between runs. This may all come up too soon for him, but he’s a stayer of real promise.
The form behind (7) Paddypie’s win at Donald is really starting to stack up and he gave then impression 2000m would suit in that win. Just fair at Flemington last start but wasn’t a day for the midfield
(2) Dirnaseer gets a senior rider in the saddle and will be strong late.
(10) Ichnusa
(7) Paddypie
(6) Orlova
(1) Decalogue
Suggested bet: Small plays Ichnusa
Race 7
Good speed with (4) Beast Mode, (7) Sir Now and (11) Bazaball Rewarded all having good early speed.
Wide-open edition of the Monsh.
The best of (9) Bellatrix Star saw her run second in a Coolmore and win a Schilacci this track and trip. She didn’t trial well leading into last campaign after a year on the sidelines and raced accordingly. She has clearly taken a while to come to hand again this time in having jumped-out in April, May and late-June, but I really liked her last piece of work. She’s handled soft tracks in the past.
(6) Watchme Win is 60 days between runs but goes well fresh. Had a very good Adelaide Carnival, including running well in a Goodwood on Soft ground. Think he’s better at 1100m than 1200m, too. Drawn to enjoy a nice run off a hot tempo.
Loved how (10) Miraval Rose has trialled up. She’s a smart mare on her day and she’s run several good races fresh. 1100m short of her best but if she can stay in touch early she will charge at them late.
(8) Winnasedge is low-flying a deserves his crack at a race like this. Had every favour this track and trip last time out but won well. Wide draw/strong tempo suit – suspect he gets a bit further back but will be strong late.
Race certainly doesn’t end there. It’s hard to rule out any horse, to be honest.
(9) Bellatrix Star
(6) Matchme Win
(10) Miraval Rose
(8) Winnasedge
Suggested bet: Go wide in quaddie.
Race 8
Two years ago (1) Pinstriped won a Group 1 Memsie at this track and trip! Has trialled up with real purpose at Cranbourne and does go well on rain-affected going. Has to give an emerging horse like (10) Ten Commandments 12kg and fitness, but he has posted some big ratings throughout his career, especially fresh.
(8) St Lawrence is going better than the finishing positions suggest. Didn’t have the best of luck at Caulfield when getting back against the pattern of the day last time out. Third up now looks ready to peak and can run a big race at odds.
(6) Big Swinger had no luck behind (3) Couer Volante last time out. Reckon he can turn the tables now, but this is a stronger race.
(10) Ten Commandments has been outstanding since joining the Maher yard, posting two big wins. His soft and heavy track record is outstanding (15:8:2:0) This is much tougher but gets in with 50kg after Jabez’s claim. Two concerns: gate one and the short quote….
(2) Rise At Dawn is a gun fresh horse who goes well at 1400m. He can roll forward and make his own luck up on speed. He’s been competitive at a much better level than this and a recent trial at Pakenham was sound.
(8) St Lawrence
(10) Ten Commandments
(1) Pinstriped
(2) Rise At Dawn
Suggested bet: Happy to have something small E/W St Lawrence at a big price. Ten Commandments has a lot in his favour, just think he’s rock-bottom odds.
Race 9
Tricky way to finish! Having small bets on a couple at odds that come through different formlines.
(2) Narbold was given a very, very quiet ride after being slow out at Rosehill last start. He only really got warm late and his last 200m was good. He’s been racing well all campaign and seems to be looking for 1700m now. Goes well at Caulfield, too.
(10) Yam comes through the same race at Rosehill as Narbold last start and beat him home there. He worked hard out a hot tempo and was then flushed out wider in the straight on a day you wanted to be nearer fence. Bit of a query at 1700m but now at peak fitness is the time to try it. He’s also entered in the Narrandera Cup Sunday and with no jockey booked that’s where they might be headed.
(9) First Chorus has had plenty of recent racing but is relishing these wet decks. If the rain has fallen by this stage and the track become heavy, she would be further advantaged. Ended up a long way back from a wide draw on a day it wasn’t easy to make ground last start but can settle handier from a soft gate.
(8) Indispensable had no luck in the Swan Hill Cup – which has been an OK form reference – before running well this track and trip in a key form reference last time out. Emily Pozman has now had a sit on him which is a plus, but unfortunately she won’t be able to use any of her claim.
(2) Narbold
(10) Yam
(9) First Chorus.
(8) Indispensable
Suggested bet: Playing around numbers 2,8,9.10 in exotics.
