Turf talk:
- Expecting a Heavy 9–10 track here, with the surface currently rated a Heavy 9 and more rain forecast.
- The rail is out +9m from the 1000m to the winning post and +8m for the remainder, suggesting horses settling in the first six in running should hold an advantage. Bigger fields may also allow jockeys to work to the outside fence later in the day.
Stats That Matter
Hot
- Ciaron Maher is striking at 22.2% from his last 176 runners, returning an impressive +8.8% POT.
- Aaron Bullock is riding well, striking at 30% from his past 76 rides with an impressive +47.9% POT.
Not
- Annabel & Rob Archibald have slumped to a concerning 14% strike rate from their past 93 runners with a -19% POT.
- Sam Clipperton is struggling at the moment, striking at just 3.7% with a -78.3% POT.
Race 1
A lacklustre 2YO contest over the 1400m kicks off proceedings. A change in tactics and the switch to a senior rider second-up saw Rumdabar dominate at Newcastle. The rise from 1300m to 1400m within two weeks looks ideal, he draws well enough and gets a further jockey upgrade with Bullock aboard. Defenseman was solid enough first-up and I doubt this is a significant rise in class despite stepping to a Saturday meeting. Lloyd going on is the big tick. Gold Globe found the line sharply in his latest trial and I expect him to settle off the speed here. Rebel Shield is next best.
Selections:
(1) Rumdabar
(2) Defenseman
(3) Gold Globe
(4) Rebel Shield
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
Complete race in two for this week’s Highway. It’s Moon Sweeper’s race to lose on paper. He brings the dominant ratings profile and gets the right setup with the 3kg claim and a wet track. Luck looks the only danger. Concoction is the only real threat, although the heavy track is a concern. He’s fit, in form and gets in light with the claim. Release Point and Demi God go into the mix, but both look place chances at best if the real Moon Sweeper turns up.
Selections:
(1) Moon Sweeper
(2) Concoction
(3) Release Point
(4) Demi God
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
Wide-open affair here with no standout wet-trackers to note. I’ll put Perfect Justice on top. The most consistent horse in this week’s Midway, but he does need a good ride from the draw. Forecaster should get away with a very soft lead. On a Soft 7 or better he would have been on top. Swift Legend is bred to get through the wet but has been kept to dry tracks. Draws well and looks right in this with a positive ride. Free And Fast draws poorly but is tactically versatile and goes into the mix.
Selections:
(3) Perfect Justice
(5) Forecaster
(4) Swift Legend
(8) Free And Fast
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4
Race of the day. Smaller field here with a real tactical feel about it. The fresh win of Zoufame was outstanding. He absorbed a hot speed early before showing a slick turn of foot to put his rivals away in a flash. Maps to find the 1-1, which will likely be the difference late. Sir Les looks disrespected in the market at $6.50. He should find the front much easier here from a kinder 1100m chute starting point. I expect him to take sharp improvement from his first go at the trip. Benevac had to do work early last start and stuck on well late, but he does need to improve again here. At $3.10, he’s short enough. Not sure what to make of Albany Road’s fresh run, but he can improve sharply here at big odds.
Selections:
(4) Zoufame
(3) Sir Les
(1) Benevac
(2) Albany Road
Suggested Bet: Zoufame WIN
Race 5
One of the harder races to dissect on the program. Existential Bob is the best wet-tracker in the field. He can be a hard horse to catch, but he looks decent odds with a positive setup. The early market support for Tambeloa has caught my eye. Good last time out when only beaten a small margin, he should find this easier and land on speed with a sharp weight relief. Sacrify is racing in career-best order after a dominant last-start win, although he does go up in the weights. The positive is Bullock is still able to take the ride. All Kinds Of Folks is next best, well backed in early markets and brings a different form line into the race.
Selections:
(4) Existential Bob
(1) Tambeloa
(3) Sacrify
(5) All Kinds Of Folks
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6
Not a whole lot of speed to report up front over the 1000m, which is key. Petticoat maps ideally from barrier 3 coming out of a very strong form race behind Ice Kool last start. Mollie stays aboard, taking another 3kg off, and with the lack of speed it looks Petticoat’s race to lose. Prime Bella comes through the same lead-up and was given no real chance after striking traffic in the straight. She returned to the trials impressively and gate 4 should see her settle much closer. Engine Room could blow these away. He has a smart fresh record, handles the wet, but will need to loop the field from gate 11. Zouriper is next best rising to Saturday grade.
Selections:
(3) Petticoat
(4) Prime Bella
(11) Engine Room
(2) Zouriper
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
Wide-open 1800m contest. Even enough tempo expected up front. Tazima comes off a strong last-start win and goes on top again. The key to his chances comes in the first 200m. Sticky draw, but if Grima presses forward he’ll prove hard to beat. Boniface meets him better at the weights but maps worse. His race will also likely be won or lost in the first 200m. Williamsberg goes into the mix. He’s been knocking on the door for a win but can be hard to catch. The big tick is his on-speed pattern, which is key in these conditions. Luskaire rounds out the numbers after finding form at his past two starts.
Selections:
(4) Tazima
(9) Boniface
(1) Williamsberg
(10) Luskaire
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 8
The market has this race wrong. Cold Brew, while solid winning last start, was paddling late over the 1300m. He now goes up in the weights, faces a Heavy 10 track and rises to 1600m within two weeks. Happy to oppose. Keen to side with Sevens at a price after being given no real hope last start before flashing home late. Peak fitness now, can settle closer and has come up at good odds. The Creator is having a solid preparation without winning. Roper jumps aboard and we can expect another honest showing. The early market support for Concherio has caught my attention. He lands on speed and enjoys the wet.
Selections:
(8) Sevens
(2) The Creator
(3) Concherio
(9) Cold Brew
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 9
Tricky race overall. Lugh wanted to over-race badly first-up before peaking on her run late. She’s unbeaten second-up and I expect with better manners in transit and added fitness she’ll improve sharply. Chris Waller has Emirate in career-best form after a dynamic last-start win and he handles the wet well. The big tick today is the draw. Thunderlips is the knockout chance. Quick backup and should find this much easier than last week. It’s A Knockout goes into the mix after a solid effort at Flemington. Three weeks between runs and returns to Randwick.
Selections:
(2) Lugh
(9) Emirate
(3) Thunderlips
(14) It’s A Knockout
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 10
Very keen to round out the day with the Les Bridge-trained Aye Aye Captain. Snagged back to last from the poor draw last start before rocketing home with the third-best last 200m and last 400m of the meeting. Peaks now and maps much better from the draw. With a positive ride, he’s a terrific bet. Hurry Miss was dynamic against the pattern first-up, loves heavy tracks and gets in light with the 2kg claim of in-form apprentice Siena Grima. Aroha Stone is an out-and-out wet tracker. Forget her past two runs as she can improve sharply here. Swifttie Harriet rounds out the numbers with a solid setup.
Selections:
(3) Aye Aye Captain
(10) Hurry Miss
(6) Aroha Stone
(2) Swifttie Harriet
Suggested Bet: Aye Aye Captain WIN
