Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 1 (4) Flash Alice
- Next Best: Race 3 (6) Polunin
Turf Talk
- The track is currently rated a Heavy 9 and with clearing conditions, there is a possibility the track could get some upgrades, but we’re still expecting a wet track.
- The rail returns to the True position for the first time since May 16. Runners came wide in the straight last week with the rail out, but they may look to come back towards the inside in search of fresh ground.
- Runners settling forward of midfield generally hold an advantage at this track.
Stats That Matter
- Alysha Warren continues to ride consistently with 14 winners from her last 100 rides, returning a POT of +29.3%.
- Caitlin Tootell recently rode her first black-type winner, but recent form has been tough with just six winners from her last 100 rides and a POT of -20%. She has a strong record at this track with a POT of +24%, so can bounce back.
- Luke O’Connor continues to have success with a small team, producing 17 winners from his last 100 runners and a huge POT of +51.8%.
- Aaron Bain & Ned Taylor are enduring a tough run with just six winners from their last 100 runners and a negative POT return of -62.1%.
Race 1
(4) Flash Alice and (2) Placo ran first and second at their last start with less than a length between them, but I’m giving (4) Flash Alice a strong chance of turning the tables today as she gets a better advantage at the weights and the rise in trip should suit. She ran the fastest last 600m and last 400m of the race last time, so looks ready for the extra distance. (2) Placo is consistent, so still gets his chance as he will likely race prominently and appreciates the wet conditions. (1) Miracle Spin was third behind that pair at Murray Bridge and will have to make up some lengths to be a winning chance, but he thrives in the wet and gets ideal conditions. (3) Hot Too Go is at peak fitness third-up now, so looks ready for the rise in distance. He gets a handy 2kg claim and maps to race positively, which should suit.
Selections
(4) Flash Alice
(2) Placo
(1) Miracle Spin
(3) Hot Too Go
Suggested Bet: (4) Flash Alice – Win
Race 2
(5) Street Legal ran well for second last start despite getting a tough run from a wide barrier. He looks close to a win now and jumping from barrier one should see him settle in a much better position than last time. (4) Scooped was well supported at his latest outing but had to settle for second. He has shown good early speed previously, so should be prominent again, which is an advantage at this track. (7) Torpedoes can mix his form but looks much better suited back to 1000m, where he has produced his best recent efforts. He handles wet tracks and can figure in this set-up. (8) Sensational Secret has good early speed and should enjoy a favourable run, while the drop back to 1000m may prove ideal.
Selections
(5) Street Legal
(4) Scooped
(7) Torpedoes
(8) Sensational Secret
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
(6) Polunin made a good impression winning on debut at Balaklava before backing that up with a close third at the same track. He meets some of those rivals better at the weights today and, with a positive race map and blinkers going on, he could prove tough to catch and bounce back into the winner’s stall. (7) Breakfast defeated (6) Polunin last time at Balaklava and is fitter again third-up, so can perform well against a similar field if she handles the wet track. (1) Oak Park Maddison is deep into her preparation but continues to race well, placing at her past two starts. This race looks easier than what she contested earlier in the prep, so her best is certainly good enough. (3) Golden Horizon was a winner earlier this preparation before contesting a pair of stronger races. He’s drawn wide but can be a fast finisher if the track plays evenly and can improve if he handles the conditions.
Selections
(6) Polunin
(7) Breakfast
(1) Oak Park Maddison
(3) Golden Horizon
Suggested Bet: (6) Polunin – Win
Race 4
(8) Trantoro resumes after mixing his form late last preparation on dry tracks, but I think he sets up much better on wet ground and gets those conditions today. He has won first-up previously, so can fire fresh in a suitable race. (6) Speedtail ran well to finish a close fourth at this track last start. He has a consistent record here and this represents a slight drop in grade, so he shapes as an improver. (7) Grinzinger Halo has put in a pair of average runs recently but returns after a four-week freshen-up. She has a sharp finish and has had little luck of late, so if the gaps appear she should be strong late. (2) Tapinforpar also drops slightly in grade and returns to a distance where he has been very consistent. Barrier one should allow him to settle closer, reducing the risk of bad luck. The conditions are the only query, but he’ll be hitting the line strongly.
Selections
(8) Trantoro
(6) Speedtail
(7) Grinzinger Halo
(2) Tapinforpar
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5
(11) Cielao kicks off a new preparation today. She hasn’t previously won first-up and may improve with the run, but she maps to settle in an ideal on-speed position and can be in the race for a long way. The conditions shouldn’t pose any issue. (7) Nicish can mix her form but broke through for a deserved win last start and boasts a terrific record at this track and distance (9:3-3-2). She gets in with a light weight after the claim and should be charging home. (3) Sir Leapalot has been in terrific form this campaign with two wins before dropping back in grade after a midfield finish last time. He handles heavy tracks and gets the right set-up. (2) The Stalker has good early speed and could find the front, which would suit. He also drops slightly in grade and could improve on his recent efforts.
Selections
(11) Cielao
(7) Nicish
(3) Sir Leapalot
(2) The Stalker
Suggested Bet: (11) Cielao – Each Way
Race 6
Today’s feature two-year-old race brings together form from several different states, but I’m leaning towards the local form that (7) Brevitas brings into the race. He was an impressive winner two starts back at Murray Bridge and looked a winning chance late last time but couldn’t reel in the eventual winner. He has a sharp finish and will likely settle back in the field, so he will need the track to be playing fairly to show his best, but he gets his chance if conditions suit. (4) Spain comes down from NSW after showing good speed on debut when finishing behind Omolong at Warwick Farm, which looks a strong form reference. If he can find the lead again, he will be in a strong position. (8) Expensive Taste has made a consistent start to her career, finishing in the placings in all four starts, and looks ready for the 1400m trip now that she is fitter second-up. (9) Burning Heartz won on debut on a wet track, so is proven in the conditions and sets up well from barrier two.
Selections
(7) Brevitas
(4) Spain
(8) Expensive Taste
(9) Burning Heartz
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
(8) Maxildo looks close to another win after a string of consistent performances. He is likely to race positively and, with a 2kg claim, should be strong late. He will also handle the wet track. (2) Canny Defense is a last-start winner at this track and distance, and this race doesn’t appear to be a significant rise in grade, so he can go close again. He also handles the expected wet conditions. (10) Stolen Kiss is drawn wide, so may look to push forward and put herself into the race early. She drops 5kg in weight today, which should help as she rises in distance. You can never discount veteran (12) France’s Boy in the wet conditions he appreciates, and if he races forward he could prove tough to catch.
Selections
(8) Maxildo
(2) Canny Defense
(10) Stolen Kiss
(12) France’s Boy
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 8
(4) Took Gardner rises in grade after a last-start maiden win, but he may get the run of the race in a contest that looks likely to be run at only a moderate speed. Given his prominent race map and the 3kg claim, he can handle the rise in grade and perform well. (3) Wind Rush continues to race consistently but is still searching for a breakthrough win. The wet conditions should suit him and he maps well from barrier two. (1) Bold Secret was a winner on a heavy track two starts back before finishing second in a stronger race last time. He sets up well for this grade, but the main risk is where he lands from the wide barrier. (5) Gazelle is in excellent form with two wins from three runs this preparation. She will settle back in the field and do her best work late, so she will be hoping for an even track that gives her the chance to run on.
Selections
(4) Took Gardner
(3) Wind Rush
(1) Bold Secret
(5) Gazelle
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 9
(1) Omaha Dawn was a good winner last start when defeating the in-form Sir Now at this track. She is now unbeaten from three runs at this track and distance and drops slightly in grade, so she looks well placed to produce another strong performance. I’m also including the resuming (14) La Roux, who is unbeaten in her previous first-up runs and gets in with just 52kg after a handy apprentice claim. With the light weight, she should be strong late if she handles the conditions. (12) Daisydoo also resumes and has won first-up previously, while she is proven on wet ground. She carries a light weight and could fire fresh in a suitable set-up. (10) Vintage Star resumes and has an excellent fresh record, winning three of his five first-up runs. He has also won multiple times at this track and distance, so could surprise.
Selections
(1) Omaha Dawn
(14) La Roux
(12) Daisydoo
(10) Vintage Star
Suggested Bet: Two-Bet Play – (1) Omaha Dawn & (14) La Roux – Win
