Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 1 – (12) She’s Iconnic
Next Best: Race 7 – (1) Collated
Best Value: Race 6 – (6) Sassy Little Miss
Turf Talk
- Improving track conditions with clear weather forecast this week, so expect the track to be presented likely as a Soft 5 if the forecast holds up.
- The rail returns to the True position.
- Murray Bridge is a big, open track, so despite the wet conditions it should still play very fairly. Expecting runners to come from a variety of lanes in the straight given the fresh ground with the new rail position.
Stats that matter
- Stacey Metcalfe has been in strong recent form with 12 wins from her previous 100 rides to return punters a POT of +53.9%. She takes four rides on this program.
- Jason Holder has been riding plenty of winners with 15 from his last 100, but not at huge value with a recent negative return of -8%.
- Claudette Rose operates with a small stable and has the one runner here, but is strong for punters with 11 winners from her last 100 runners and a POT of +31.8%. Her team has returned a POT of +84.2% at this track alone.
Race 1
(12) She’s Iconnic comes out of a handy Maiden last start where she ran second behind a sharp winner. She has a light weight for this and maps for a soft run from barrier three, so could prove tough to catch in what looks a strong set-up for her.
(10) Settle Petal was well supported when resuming but never got into the race there at Morphettville when jumping from a wide barrier. She looked sharp in a recent trial prior and maps for a better run today, so expecting improvement.
(9) My Cherie Amor is another runner who maps for a favourable run from barrier two. She showed improvement last start when rising to the 1200m trip, so looks suited remaining in a similar set-up.
(4) Didactic improved to run into the placings last start after a poor performance the run prior. She looks likely to appreciate rising in distance slightly for this.
Selections
(12) She’s Iconnic
(10) Settle Petal
(9) My Cherie Amor
(4) Didactic
Suggested Bet: (12) She’s Iconic – Win
Race 2
(1) Paganini has had a lot of chances in Maiden grade but looks close to a win off recent efforts, including here last start over this same track and distance where he ran a close second behind a winner who performed well in town last start. That pair put a huge gap on the rest of the field, so a performance of that level should place him well for this.
(7) Regimented ran a close second at Balaklava last week and backs up quickly in a similar set-up. He has a wide barrier to deal with, which is the risk, but does have the early speed to cross and find the right position.
(11) Goodlookin’ Guru has run into the placings in her last two starts and looks suited up in distance to the 1400m trip now. She maps well from barrier one and should get an ideal run.
(14) Or Am I has run into the placings in her last two starts. Like her back on her home track on the grass and she is likely going to be strong late in the run with a light weight on her back after an apprentice claim.
Selections
(1) Paganini
(7) Regimented
(11) Goodlookin’ Guru
(14) Or Am I
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
(2) Meg’s Magic is first-up here today. She looked good in a recent trial and has a good record when first-up into a preparation. Capable of firing fresh and should be suited to the big, open track.
(3) Magic Island made a solid debut for her new stable when running a close third at Morphettville. She is fitter today and looks a key speed influence in the race, so should be prominent in the run.
(5) Shalhavmusik didn’t show a great deal when resuming but has previously been a runner who improves with extra fitness. She is second-up now, where she has performed well previously, so looks likely to finish closer today.
(6) Urbanise resumes. She hasn’t been a runner who has shown much first-up previously, but this race doesn’t appear to have a great deal of early speed and she will likely land in that position with a light weight, so could be in the race for a long way.
Selections
(2) Meg’s Magic
(3) Magic Island
(5) Shalhavmusik
(6) Urbanise
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(7) Kushan Khanivale ran a close second in a similar race to this at Balaklava last start and, while he doesn’t have a strong winning record in his career, he is a runner who has a consistent record at this track and distance set-up of four starts for one 2nd and three 3rds. Expect him to be around the mark again if he can hold his recent form.
(6) Territorian hit the line strongly last start but couldn’t do enough to reel in a runaway winner. He gets onto improving track conditions and onto an even track today, which will help.
(3) The Journo has been around the mark in his last couple of starts when well in the market but perhaps hasn’t seen ideal conditions. He will be much better suited today on drier ground and is well placed from barrier three.
(2) Justica’s Bonus has placed in his last two starts. He looks close to a win with the right set-up, has a consistent record at this distance and should appreciate improving track conditions from his previous couple of runs.
Selections
(7) Kushan Khanivale
(6) Territorian
(3) The Journo
(2) Justica’s Bonus
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(3) Reciprocal was a good winner in a similar race to this two starts back at Balaklava before contesting a stronger race at Morphettville last start, where he ran well to finish in the placings. He looks better suited back at this grade and will get a soft run from barrier one, so can bounce back to winning form.
(7) Geetee Forty has been hitting the line well recently, so looks suited rising in distance and will get in with a light weight after an apprentice claim. Expecting him to be hitting the line strongly.
(6) Kailee’s Boy hasn’t shown much in his last two runs but don’t feel he has appreciated the wetter tracks in those runs. He looks better suited to drier ground today and looks the likely leader who can control the race from out in front. He should find improvement today.
(1) Back Me Up Benny comes into this race third-up now and will be suited rising in distance to a trip he has multiple wins at, including a win at this track and distance. He gets a soft run from barrier two.
Selections
(3) Reciprocal
(7) Geetee Forty
(6) Kailee’s Boy
(1) Back Me Up Benny
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
Looks a good-level midweek Class 1 race with a few progressive types, including last-start winner (6) Sassy Little Miss, who rises out of Maiden grade after a tough win in her last start. She is capable of leading again here, which gives her an ideal run, and if she has a level of improvement from her last start, this looks very winnable.
(2) Dampen resumes today. He hasn’t won first-up previously but is kicking off down in grade from last preparation and hasn’t missed the placings from four runs at this distance.
(4) Oie De Toulouse ran into the placings first-up in a stronger race but couldn’t back that up last time when appearing to not handle the wet conditions. Expecting he can improve on a drier track here and will be suited at this more even track also.
(1) Bel Ragazzo is a last-start winner in Maiden grade and has made a consistent start to his career. He looks capable of progressing through this grade but will have to handle a big weight today.
Selections
(6) Sassy Little Miss
(2) Dampen
(4) Oie De Toulouse
(1) Bel Ragazzo
Suggested Bet: (6) Sassy Little Miss – Each way
Race 7
(1) Collated was hitting the line strongly in his resuming run at Morphettville and looks capable of finding quick improvement off that now he is fitter second-up and rising to the 1600m trip. He should land in a strong position in the run from barrier two and prove tough to hold out.
(5) Stolen Kiss ran midfield in her last start but that was in a stronger race at Morphettville. The form line from her run prior, when she was third behind Gazelle, looks good and she has a good record here.
There doesn’t look like a huge amount of early speed in this race, which could see (8) On Any Tuesday look to take up the lead and, with the right run out in front, he could prove tough to catch in this set-up.
(10) Vivacious Award was moderate in her first-up run but can improve today rising in distance and with a light weight after an apprentice claim. She should be strong late in the run.
Selections
(1) Collated
(5) Stolen Kiss
(8) On Any Tuesday
(10) Vivacious Award
Suggested Bet: (1) Collated – Win
