How to read the ratings
Throughout Weekend at Bot’s, you’ll see Form King data used to break down how each race was run and the level of performance produced. Here’s a quick guide to the key metrics:
- LD-S-8: Leader from the start to the 800m.
- LD-8-4: Leader from the 800m to the 400m.
- LD-4-F: Leader from the 400m to the finish.
- WNR-4-F: Winner from the 400m to the finish.
- WFA: Overall performance rating on a Weight-For-Age scale.
- WTS: The winners final rating at the weights carried.
Dave Pfundt’s assessment of how the track played:
“The track was officially a Dead 4, upgraded to a Good 3 after Race 4.
Times concur. I’d add that the times in the straight were very much those of a Good 3 or better – a perfect track condition! Winds were 30kmh+ Northerly and while they did temper slightly later in the card, it was always a day where cover was an advantage – especially with the rail out 10 metres. Pattern wise, 3 of the 9 winners found the fence in transit, a further 3 found the 1 out, 1 back position and the other 3 either led or were outside lead.
“Despite the strong correlation with an “up and in” pattern, I didn’t feel it was diabolical or unpredictable for the 10m rail position. The right horses won their races, and I’m calling it up and in with forgiveness to those who raced without cover – especially at stronger tempos – at their next start. I will also be somewhat conservative with winners that found the fence or inside of the field up the straight.”
A snapshot of how the races were run and won:
Race 1: LD-S-8: -18.2L, LD-8-4: +1.3L, LD-4-F: +2.7L, WNR-4-F: +2.7L, @WTS: 91.9, @WFA: 89.8
Aurie’s Star Handicap Day was heralded by the return of champion jockey Blake Shinn, who took no time in picking up where he left off.
He’d been engaged to ride Nearco Frod, who had won twice consecutively at Sandown where the pace had been pedestrian, the former less so.
Shinn elected to settle his mount toward the outside of Black Run, who, again, set a very slow pace, and again, Nearco Frod beat his opposition for speed over the concluding stages.
Nearco Frod is, of course, bred to Northern Hemisphere time, so while the form card may read that he is five, he is still four and won’t turn five until next April. He had also been unraced for just shy of
12 months before this campaign due to injury, and has been exposed to a true test of endurance just once. The one time the pace was fast, he settled last and finished quickly relative to the race, despite a checkered passage. That was his second start in Australia, beaten by Shockletz and Prochestor. He may be even better when the pace is searching, so I deem it likely that the best of Nearco Frod remains unseen.
The favourite for much of the betting, Our Chief, who was on the quick turnaround from last week’s Caulfield win, was quite soft over the latter stages of betting. He enjoyed an economical run and ran well, finishing third, but was no match for the winner. He ran to form, and the three-year-old staying form was exposed as not particularly good.
He’ll be spelled now, I believe.
Race 2: LD-S-8: +0.7L, LD-8-4: +0.3L, LD-4-F: -0.5L, WNR-4-F: +1.7L, @WTS: 83.3, @WFA: 86.6
Almontego made sufficient improvement from his debut to win the opening three-year-old race of the Victorian season.
With a weight-for-age figure of 86.6, he falls short of the recent standard set by Angels Fury (88.4), Doubt Time (88.2) and Riverina Lulu (89.3), and is unlikely to be competitive in the spring features that those others may contest. That said, he can continue to improve.
The logical progression for him now is the Vain Stakes, in which I believe he would be something like a 20/1 chance.
If there is a filly to follow from this race, it may be Santa Barbara, who made a good debut for Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman. Given their modest record with debutants, there is a notion that she can improve drastically with racing and perhaps over a little further.
Race 3: LD-S-8: +8L, LD-8-4: -2.4L, LD-4-F: -1.8L, WNR-4-F: -1.7L, @WTS: 95.5, @WFA: 91.5
The betting told in this instance, as See That Storm was backed off the boards all week, from as high as $8 into $4.20 on the exchange.
The money for him was predicated on firmer footing and his first run over ten furlongs in Australia.
It was well publicised before his Australian debut that he had been beaten by Fox Legacy, who had since run to a figure that would render him competitive in a Cox Plate at Goodwood. He was then pitched into the Champions Stakes at Ascot, finishing sixth to Calandagan, Ombudsman, Delacroix and the like. So, See That Storm’s form was good, but it had not quite translated in two previous runs, both over a mile and on rain-affected going.
He quickly turned his form around, though, settling third behind a good speed set by Smokin’ Romans and Chief Little Rock, then pounding clear at the top of the straight and staving off the fast-finishing Star Of India thereafter.
Accounting for an impost of 54kg, See That Storm ran to a rating of 95.5, and 91.5 at weight-for-age. Under the weight scale, that fits in nicely with the level of Saint George, who ran to 95.7 at the weights to win his respective BM100 a fortnight ago (although he has been much better previously), and First Chorus at 95.4 last weekend. You can obviously tie Star Of India in directly through Saint George, so it all makes quite a bit of sense. Of course, See That Storm’s rating will go up for winning this, but he remains progressive and can be aimed at black-type 2000-metre handicaps, where he can be well weighted on dry tracks.
Race 4: LD-S-8: +1.7L, LD-8-4: +3.2L, LD-4-F: -1.3L, WNR-4-F: +3.7L, @WTS: 91.8, @WFA: 91.5
Itazura returned with a new best, shelving the heights he’d reached as a three-year-old, with a terrific win first-up over 1400 metres as a now four-year-old. His previous peak had come over 1800 metres in the Group 2 Autumn Classic, beaten by Single Choice and the ill-fated Arcora.
The pace was honest, as Fear No Evil raced them along just shy of three lengths faster than standard to the 600 metres. The complexion of the race changed thereafter, when Kahhof and Itazura loomed ominously and made their bids.
The saloon passage appeared for Itazura, and he and Luke Nolen capitalised, switching off heels and finishing well to win in a fast overall time. Itazura has evidently returned well, winning over seven furlongs, and was supported from $18 into $14.40 on the exchange, suggesting there was an expectation he would do so.
Flemington Race 4 | Itazura
Itazura is back with a bang! The Tagaloa gelding is much too good first-up from a spell 👊
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/jO0PwH9yOx— Racing.com (@Racing) August 1, 2026
Punters can latch on to Darkbonee in the coming months. He made an exciting return and maintained a firm position in the market despite some glaringly obvious flaws in his chances beforehand. He shouldered 61.5kg and finished quickly in a race that rated well, bettering his peak when third to Saint George in January.
It all came a little quickly for him last campaign, rising markedly from provincial grade to a BM100 at Flemington in the space of a fortnight, but the market held him in high regard nonetheless. Despite being poorly placed relative to his rating, he remained firm in betting, hinting that he was very good. 2000-metre handicaps await, and as do I.
Race 5: LD-S-8: +6.1L, LD-8-4: +0.2L, LD-4-F: -2.9L, WNR-4-F: -1.5L,@WTS: 91.8, @WFA: 91.1
Stage ‘N’ Screen very narrowly kept Cherish Me at bay, in a return to her best.
Brilliant Horizon, Stage ‘N’ Screen and Proven Soul all vied for the early lead, but Jordan Childs was adamant on leading aboard Takeko, and the pair raced the field six lengths faster than standard to the 800-metre mark.
Stage ‘N’ Screen settled far more prominently on Saturday than she did at Lakeside last start, where she was restrained to the rear over 1200 metres. That, in my view, was the difference in performance: being able to hold a position close to the speed over her optimal 1400 metres allowed her to recapture her best.
Ilyivy and Silent Shares both finished very well relative to the race, but both were racing midweek at their last starts, which speaks to the strength of this form. This group will become vulnerable to progressive four-year-old mares ascending through the grades in the coming weeks.
Race 6: LD-S-8: -8.7L, LD-8-4: +0.3L, LD-4-F: +3.8L, WNR-4-F: +5.3L,@WTS: 95.1, @WFA: 93.6
Daves notes:
“Touchdown enjoyed a comfortable run in the 1 out/1 back position, behind a soft lead speed, but the race shape was a little misleading.”
“The tempo wasn’t far off par to the 1200m, but there was an incredible field slowdown between the 1200m and 800m, some 7.4 lengths! This was the headwind section on the day, into that Northerly wind. It was detrimental for the overall race time, but allowed Touchdown a comfortable mid-race section and a platform to put in a big sprint.
“His final 400m was 5.3 lengths above the class standard, and what I liked most was that he regressed only 0.44 seconds over the final 200m from his 4-2 split time. Only Shockletz and Hurry Curry matched him there from 13th and 14th position in running, and they are both looking for 2000m+. All told, it was a narrow new peak, 95.1 at the weights carried, 93.6 at Weight For Age and I feel that he probably could have put in a similar finish off a stronger tempo/platform. He looks every bit a 96/97+ WFA horse at 1600m-2000m and that puts him in the conversation for the Spring if they can keep him up and racing over those months.”
Lindsay Park’s progressive Touchdown sprinted far too well for a field consisting mostly of stagnant horses in this grade. As Dave alluded to, the leader, Mandero, completed the first quarter-mile 1.3 lengths slower than standard, slow, but not yet the pedestrian pace the race eventually became.
Blake Shinn elected to urge Touchdown, who is not known for his early speed, into a brilliant position behind the pace. That move ultimately proved decisive, as he enjoyed a pivotal positional advantage over Kaleo, Farhh Flung and Shockletz, who were second, third and fourth in the betting.
Flemington Race 6 | Touchdown
Haven’t the punters missed Blake Shinn! Touchdown continues his ascendancy through the grades & gives Shinn a double on his return 🏈
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/YpXGUrG60g— Racing.com (@Racing) August 1, 2026
It was apparent that he had returned well at Sandown first-up, coming from near last and finishing strongly in a race where the pace was strong. The market expected plenty of him, only second-up, forecasting a new peak performance, and that’s exactly what he delivered.
Shockletz is in desperate need of a mile and a half, racing well as she typically does over a mile, but outpaced nonetheless. Her best figures have come over 2000 and 2500 metres, and that is likely where she is heading. She is racing well, so if that is the case, forecasting her around her peak in two or three runs’ time is more than appropriate.
Hurry Curry, who was sent away as an $180 outsider on the exchange, returned as well as she possibly could; her last 600 metres was only bettered by Shockletz. She was third in the Adelaide Cup, stays very well, and can be kept in mind as she progresses over more ground.
Race 7: LD-S-8: -4.4L, LD-8-4: +3.5L, LD-4-F: +0.3L, WNR-4-F: +2.3L, @WTS: 96.6, @WFA: 93.4
The Aurie’s Star was won by Tony Gollan for the second time, having previously won with Temple Of Boom in 2011. Boomtown Boss, of course, is by Spirit Of Boom, who is the younger half-brother of Temple Of Boom, so it’s a bit of a family affair in this race for Gollan.
The race was somewhat compromised by the heavily supported War Machine, who, I can’t help but think, would have blown this field to pieces had he raced.
Unsurprisingly, this edition of the Aurie’s Star Handicap is down on its historical standard, as Boomtown Boss has effectively run to form to win this. With a rating of 93.4 at weight for age, and 96.6 once accounting for the weight carried, it is a very modest level for a Group 3 Handicap.
Arkansaw Kid was easy to back and underperformed, which spells some concern for his campaign ahead. He’s been rather consistent between a range of 96 and 98 over the last 12 months, which is a chasm from the 93.6 he ran to on Saturday. The logical progression from Saturday is the Regal Roller, and there’s no doubt that he will improve, but to what extent?
Royal Insignia ran to his mark, but will be eclipsed once higher quality horses resume racing.
Ndola was well supported and began favourite after the unfortunate scratching of War Machine, but was disappointing relative to market expectation. I’m acutely aware of his record at Flemington over 1200 metres, but I’m adamant that he is better over seven furlongs.
Race 8: LD-S-8: -11.4L, LD-8-4: +0.5L, LD-4-F: +3.9L, WNR-4-F: +3.9L, @WTS: 96.7, @WFA: 93.8
A weighted certainty if suitable circumstances were permitted, Sass Appeal extended her winning streak to five with a good, rather than great, return over the weekend.
She wasn’t asked to do anything she hadn’t done before; in fact, it was not as good as her two wins in the Desirable and Kewney Stakes.
This was her return, though, and she did not need to over-exert if it wasn’t required. Sent away as a $1.49 favourite on the exchange, she won comfortably, to the avail of punters who expected her to run to a similar level to what she produced in the Desirable Stakes. She may be well on track, and she did win, of course, but I am conscious that she was the slowest of the six runners over the concluding 600 metres. She led, and was not necessarily asked to quicken until the 400-metre mark, but it could still be perceived as a concern.
A good return, but punters have not learned anything new from her in this instance. I’m inclined to believe I will be betting against her next start, provided there is a horse capable of beating her.
Any chance of beating the odds-on favourite was thwarted once the rider aboard Rise At Dawn elected to allow Logan Bates and Sass Appeal to dictate terms and race at a pedestrian pace for this grade. The advantage for Rise At Dawn was fitness, and the decision to allow this to become a test of speed rather than endurance was puzzling. Rise At Dawn does not have a brilliant turn of speed at the best of times.
He is in excellent form, nonetheless. The Heatherlie Stakes would be his target, if I had anything to do with him.
Craig, whose career has been compromised by injury, returned in better order than the form card may suggest. He quickened as well as any between the 600 and 200 metres, before conditioning took its toll and he yielded late. Perhaps third-up and fourth-up is the time to catch him.
Race 9: LD-S-8: -2.2L, LD-8-4: +1.4L, LD-4-F: +0.5L, WNR-4-F: +0.5L, @WTS: 91.1, @WFA: 88.3
The distinguished combination of Ciaron Maher and Jabez Johnstone continued, as Just Like Gaby led all the way to win the concluding race of the day.
Her best figures had previously been over 1000 metres, and she had very much been an anaerobic specialist, rather than a mare to race in this grade over six furlongs. For her to resume with a win, running to her modal rating over 1100 metres first-up, suggests she may have physically developed into a mare capable of coping with 1200 metres at this level.
She is very fast, and perhaps a touch unfortunate that The Valley is out of action, but she has won quite well and can be something to beat at Caulfield in future, especially if there is a southerly wind about.
Ratings Blackbook
- Darkbonee returned in tremendous order, eclipsing the mark he reached when well fancied behind Saint George in January. There is an abundance of 1800 and 2000-metre handicaps that are his for the taking.
- Hurry Curry resumed as well as she possibly could have, and may be an intriguing option for punters to follow if the market dismisses her in future as she progresses over more ground.
- Touchdown may be obvious, but for him to sprint so well over a mile is indicative of his talent. He is far better suited in races where there is pace, so there are plenty of 2000-metre races, including Group class events, that could suit. Perhaps a Naturalism or a Coongy could be his target.
- I do believe Craig resumed in good order, despite finishing last. Condition told over the last furlong, but he quickened very well between the 600 and 200 metres.
