There are some outstanding betting contests across Flemington’s Derby Day card and the $10 million Golden Eagle at Randwick, and Bet Legends’ Shaun Beirne has identified a few favourites he is happy to oppose.
Flemington Race 2: Regal Ambition looks too short
Regal Ambition has plenty going for her on exposed form, but Beirne believes the market has gone overboard in assessing her winning chances.
“A race I am more than happy to oppose the market,” Beirne said.
“Regal Ambition is clearly a decent prospect. She has strong sectionals and was against the bias last start.
“She carries the penalty due to her Listed win and Group 1 placing last start. But she will be back again in a race where there is no guarantee of speed.
“The ratings are not as clear-cut as the market price suggests.”
Beirne also expects support for several of her rivals, making Regal Ambition an unattractive betting proposition at the current quote.
“Pin Up Shiela has been well backed already and I can see money coming for I Am Aria, Affari and Autumn Lover.
“Put simply, she may win, but she is no value.”
Special: Regal Ambition to win by 1L+ at $6.
Flemington Race 6: Coolmore Stud Stakes
The Coolmore Stud Stakes shapes as one of the races of the day, with The Next Episode heading the market.
Beirne has plenty of respect for the favourite but believes another runner brings compelling form into the Group 1 contest.
“The Next Episode is a sectional star who looks suited to straight racing. Maher and Zahra, what could go wrong?” Beirne said.
“I think he’s a fair favourite but I’m happy to be against at this point in a race I won’t be getting heavily involved in until we see the conditions.”
Instead, Beirne is leaning towards St Gotthard, whose Sydney form appeals strongly.
“St Gotthard’s Sydney form behind Warwoven looks strong. I suspect he’s been targeted at this race all along.
“He gets the nice run with cover in the middle of the pack. He will need a run late and be diving through.
“He’s on top for me.”
Beirne’s selection: St Gotthard.
Flemington Race 7: Victorian Derby
The 2500m Victorian Derby presents a much trickier betting proposition, with Beirne giving a slight edge to the Sydney form.
But he’s reluctant to take a strong position against the market, particularly with Ciaron Maher represented by runners at double-figure odds.
“It’s an open race. I’ve got a slight lean to the Sydney pair,” Beirne said.
“That leaves me potentially laying Maher runners at double figures in a distance race … no thanks.”
For Beirne, this is one race where discretion is the better part of valour.
Verdict: A punters’ race to decide.
Randwick: Golden Eagle
The $10 million Golden Eagle has Sheza Alibi dominating betting, but despite her short quote, Beirne isn’t rushing to take her on aggressively.
“Sheza Alibi, Sheza Moral,” Beirne said.
“We will sit with the market. She is maybe getting short?
“We will lay her, but we certainly won’t be chasing her out. There are plenty of better $1.65 chances to lay.”
It’s a measured approach from Beirne, who recognises the favourite’s winning prospects while questioning whether her price offers sufficient value.
Verdict: Lay Sheza Alibi, but with caution.
