Betsy’s Set: Sale

Race 1

(4) Roulette King trialled up well prior to a very good debut at Geelong over 1140m – he ran the 2nd-best last 400m/200m splits of the meeting. Jamie Mott jumps in the saddle, having ridden this bloke in his jump-outs, but opted to ride the winner of that Geelong race (Quickaz) last time out. The step up in trip is ideal and I don’t think he will be far away from a good draw.

(8) Meleys was terrific late on debut at Echuca (best last 400m split of the meeting) when running second. She is a terrific hope, but I can’t get her as short as the market as I think she will give them a start and staying at 1300m is a query.

Selections:
(4) Roulette King
(8) Meleys
(5) Sky Deel

Betting suggestion: Roulette King 1×3 E/W looks a great bet at $7.50+.

Race 2

(4) Celtics is still a colt and they’ll be very keen to quickly get a win on the board. Good size to this bloke; he has shown plenty of talent in trials leading into this. Wide draw, but they only have one bend to navigate, and jockey Ethan Brown could win on a broomstick at the moment.

Reece Goodwin has acquired (1) Rosa Aotearoa, a gelding that has always shown great promise on the trial track but to date hasn’t delivered on race day. Reece is outstanding at getting the best out of tried horses and this bloke has again jumped out really well. Think he can press forward out of the chute and give this race a mighty shake.

(6) I’mateez has been gelded after running well in two handy maidens last campaign. Four of the five horses who finished in front of him at Bendigo when last at the races won at their next start; the other finished second. He has trialled very well leading into this.

Selections:
(4) Celtics
(1) Rosa Aotearoa
(6) I’mateez
(9) Bajaria

Betting suggestion: Quinella 1, 4, 6.

Race 3

Sheesh, this is a moderate maiden.

Give (7) Square Deal a good each-way hope. He debuted at Werribee last campaign where he didn’t have the best of luck in the run before finishing fifth. The first three over the line out of that race won at their next start; the fourth won two starts later. He has trialled up quite nicely this time in and a good gate should allow him to hold a spot handy enough to the speed.

Liked the way (1) Blue Cowboy has jumped out. Will likely be better over further in time, but this is a lovely kick-off point and he can win without surprising.

Selections:
(7) Square Deal
(1) Blue Cowboy
(4) Manifest The Milli
(11) Tarcoola Belle

Suggested Bet: Backing Square Deal E/W

Race 4

Not mad on this race.

(7) Savisanta and (1) Chronic come through the same last start at Geelong. Savisanta is still doing a few things wrong, including laying out sharply late in the race, which may have cost him victory. Winkers going on here is a plus. Chronic covered ground there at Geelong and has shown enough ability in his career to suggest he’s better than maiden grade. The issue for both of them is a sticky map!

(6) Matsuda had traffic issues – as many did – in the Derby Trial, a race that provided the winner of Saturday’s Super Impose Stakes. He has shown tactical versatility and is drawn reasonably to come across and sit in the first 4–5.

The leader is (5) Fabulous Fiano who comes through a strong maiden on debut. He led them up there and tired late. The query is fitness/1744m, but he does have a real map advantage on key rivals.

Tough!

Selections:
(7) Savisanta
(6) Matsuda
(5) Fabulous Fiano
(1) Chronic

Betting suggestion: No interest. Pattern may change that.

Race 5

There’s little depth to this.

As the market would suggest, (4) A Diva should lead, control and win. But I couldn’t entertain $1.45 about her, especially without seeing how the track is playing. She was excellent up on a genuine tempo at Sandown last time out and everything she does suggests 1744m will be right up her alley. Gun jockey on board, she should get every chance to win.

(3) Mariota was good without luck here at Sale first up; the step in trip suits.

(2) Righteous hails from a good stable and draws for a perfect trail first up at 1744m. Just would’ve liked to see him trial better, but on previous form he has a claim.

Selections:
(4) A Diva
(3) Mariota
(2) Righteous
(1) Red On Red

Betting suggestion: No thank you.

Race 6

Disappointing to see Bazball Rewarded scratched – really looking forward to seeing her at the races again.

There looks very little speed on paper now.

(3) Octrain jumps the gates quite well. When you look back at his last campaign, he generally settled off speed, but he drew gates 9, 7, 10, 9 early in the preparation and at The Valley that quickly condemns you. He showed good gate speed in a recent jump-out, and in a race lacking tempo I think Billy Egan can bounce this bloke right on speed. He has strong enough form through last campaign to be winning this.

(7) Don’t Russia’s best this campaign has been when she’s got back off reasonable tempos, but from gate two in a race lacking tempo she might end up right on speed. Craig Newitt has a good association with her now and she is a winner here at Sale in the past. On recent ratings she’s deservedly near the top of the market; I just can’t get her as short.

Pattern pending, (5) Go To Hollywood will be strong late. (10) Shanghai Venture can give a sight near the speed.

Selections:
(3) Octrain
(7) Don’t Russia
(5) Go To Hollywood
(10) Shanghai Venture

Betting suggestion: Could have something small on Octrain.

Race 7

Pattern will be key here.

If it’s an on-speed track then (3) Fridge Monster will take plenty of catching. He gets back to his preferred 1400m trip and maps to get total control of the race from gate one.

It will be interesting to see how much intent they show with (1) Glasgow Lass first up from a wide gate. She brings very good WA form/ratings to Victoria and her latest trial since joining the Matt Laurie stable was excellent. Gets the claim for Rose Hammond here to offset the allotted 63kg, but also worth considering she is going at 6% from her last 100 rides.

Going to spec a couple of roughies.

(10) Blistering gets the blinkers back on and has trialled well between runs. Her four runs at Sale have all been good, without winning. Her run here at track and trip three back – when the blinkers were last on – was very good. Maps ideally. Can run a race at big odds.

The other horse I want to spec is (9) Prochester. He has been tried out over much further, but a recent jump-out was sharp and from gate four he can get a soft trail first up.

(11) Triple Malt was heavily backed on debut before winning narrowly. Maps to settle on speed with Fridge Monster and can run well. Equicast first time is a little knock.

Selections:
(9) Prochester
(10) Blistering
(3) Fridge Monster
(11) Triple Malt

Betting suggestion: Pattern will be important, but happy to have something small on roughies: Prochester and Blistering.

Race 8

A few horses here who are struggling to post a win.

Doesn’t look a lot of speed for a 1200m race.

(8) Picture Perfect is a ‘pattern’ horse. She will get a fair way back here but she steamed to the line at Sandown last time out. The start prior at Seymour she probably got to the outside too late, and in another few bounds would’ve gone close to winning. Little knock for mine is dropping back to 1200m.

Back to 1200m suits (5) Dollar Shot. Maps well from gate six; Thomas Stockdale knows this mare well and, back in grade, she can be competitive.

Liked the fresh run of (2) Big Watch who signalled he might be back to something like his best, which saw him a back-to-back winner down the Flemington straight in 2024. Jamie Mott hops back aboard this bloke – he knows the horse well. If he can hold a spot off gate one then expect him to prove hard to beat out to 1200m.

(10) Miss Playlounge can win this at odds. She has jumped out nicely and the best of her is pretty good. Still has untapped potential.

Selections:
(2) Big Watch
(10) Miss Playlounge
(8) Picture Perfect
(5) Dollar Shot

Betting suggestion: Pattern key – could have something on Big Watch/Miss Playlounge provided the inside is holding up / swooping from last is somewhat challenging.