Melbourne Cup 2026 tips: Gibbo's runner-by-runner preview

That time of year, the race that stops the nation!

Here is a runner-by-runner preview of the Cup. It is always hard to write a preview for once-a-year punters and big punters at the same time, and use language that works for everyone. I will do my best, and feel free to share or send a link to this preview to anyone who may appreciate it.

Track conditions: I am doing this preview assuming the forecast 25mm of rain will fall on Monday and the track will be soft. Anything other than that and I will update Tuesday morning. That is the biggest factor and the reason things may change. Just how much rain falls Monday?

Rough speed map below:

Runner-by-runner preview

1. Sons And Lovers | $21/$6

In a great stable and can make use of the good barrier draw. Will land in the first few pairs and not use any petrol in the run. Winner of a Group 2 race in France two starts ago and last start was rock solid in the Group 3 Kilternan stakes last start. Carried 63.5kg there and will look the winner here at some stage. Thought he was some hope but the closer we get, the more I think he is a very good chance. .

2. Trustyourinstinct | $8/$3.10

Not a big horse but he is a suitable type for the Cup. Has gone out in trip his last two starts and been very good. Two back he won the Group 2 Curragh Cup over 2816m and looked sensational. Went to the G1 St Leger at WFA and was 4th behind some of the best stayers in Europe. Comes to a handicap where he has a fair weight and gets James McDonald to ride. He will be in the second half of the field and get to the best part of the track in the straight. Genuine winning hope but would rather a drier track than wet if possible.

3. Knights Choice | $34/$10

Won this race two years ago at $91. Has done very little since and had some issues. Has 5kg more to carry here and should be closer to the $91 he was last time. Not one of mine.

4. Middle Earth | $13/$4.40

This stable has them running through brick walls. Ran 3rd in this race last year without great form either. Loves the 3200m and hard to knock other than 2kg more than last year. initially he was a no for me but the more I watch the replays, the more I think the stable has him ticking over just where they want him for the two miles. He will be in my wider trifectas.

5. Vauban | $51/$14

6th in this race last year was decent. He and I don’t have a good history, so he won’t be one of mine here.

6. Enfjaar | $21/$6

Decent form overseas and was a Group 3 winner last start before he made the trip. Very good 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and draws a barrier to get the perfect run in the race. Expecting a good run and if the rain comes it would only be a bonus.

7. Royal Supremacy | $51/$14

Mixing form and doesn’t look to be going well enough. Does like a wet track, that’s the positive. Wide draw and 56kg are negatives.

8. Wine Dark Sea | $51/$14

Thought he was a good chance in the Caulfield Cup, but he sat on speed and gave in quickly. Can improve off that run, but he has to. Has won 3 of his last 6 but he is one I don’t really know what to do with.

9. Asterix | $101/$24

Handy on his day but the last couple have been weak efforts. Has to have a huge form reversal here.

10. Goodie Two Shoes | $31/$9

Two very good runs and two horrible runs this prep. She is a very good stayer on her day and it’s just a matter of catching her when she’s in the right mood. She was $26 out to $41 in this race last year and ran exceptionally well (finished 2nd). Carried 51.5kg there and the jump to 55kg is my main concern here. Sure to run it out strong and worth consideration in trifectas.

11. Juju Kibo | $11/$3.90

Horse and stable are flying. Won the Group 2 Metropolitan in Sydney over 2400m at the start of October. Then went to Flemington and won the MV Cup over 2500m. Loves wet ground and has to be respected in this form. In the leading stable, handles all conditions and seems to be peaking at the right time. A couple of weight penalties from those wins aren’t ideal.

12. Hopewell Rock | $10/$3.30

This is the one I have been around for a couple of weeks and has come in from $21 last week to $10 now. I feel he has beaten the handicapper to a degree. He is lightly raced and has a heap of upside to come. He’s had 10 starts and won or placed in 8 of them. He beat Small Fry two runs back and that horse ran 2nd in the Geelong Cup. Last start he was 2nd in the Ebor handicap over 2800m. It’s usually a good lead for the Melbourne Cup as it’s a big field and a handicap (same as the Cup). It was wet ground and he was nosed out in a photo there. Jockey is a beauty, 54.5kg suits, gate looks ok and he should get his chance.

13. Onesmoothoperator | $101/$24

9 years old and has to somehow find 9-10 lengths to be competitive. Finished 16th here last year.

14. Soul Of Spain | $41/$11

Has been an up and coming stayer this year but the recent form has not been great, but not much has gone right lately. He was 2nd in the 3200m Sydney Cup back in April. Good barrier is the key for him and he can be strong late. Not the worst but he has to bring his very best to be in the finish carrying 54.5kg, which is the same weight he had in the Sydney Cup.

15. Zahraan | $23/$7

The first two runs this prep were outstanding and he was the talk of the town. Got lapped in the Turnbull (18 lengths) and beaten 3.9L in the Caulfield Cup. Has ability and in the right stable. Does have to improve dramatically off the last couple of runs though. He gets blinkers first time and that can have a positive impact, especially in this stable.

16. So You Are | $19/$6

This horse ran 4th in a Grafton Cup just four months ago and somehow comes to the Melbourne Cup a $19 chance. Changed stables to Bjorn Baker and has won his last four runs straight. Three of them Group 3s and all over 2400-2600m. Handles all ground, good jockey, good stable and some hope. Can’t believe I’m saying that about this horse, but seeing is believing.

17. Future History | $71/$18

9yr old and 47 starts. Hasn’t shown enough ability to win a Cup and doubt he can improve at this age. Jamie Melham rides and looks to get a good run in transit. Has been a great horse for the owners but this might be a bit rich for him.

18. James J Braddock | $13/$4.40

Barrier 24 looks horrible for this horse. But, If there is a very wet track it might not be such a concern. They will get to the middle of the track in the straight and if he is three wide with cover, he would love those conditions. He is the real X-factor and could go to another level here. He is a 3yr old in the northern hemisphere and has matched it with the best of them in Europe. He was 3rd in the Group 1 Epsom Derby over 2400m and it was an exceptional run that day. The Quinella there have been good since and it looks a strong formline. He was gelded and given a bit of time off after the Irish Derby. The last start just looked a bit plain but he was in need of the run to get some fitness and it was better than it looked. They have timed everything for this race and if he gets any luck or a good ride, he could blow them away. It all comes down to the first 600m and where he lands in the run. Wet would be an added bonus for this bloke.

19. Kizlyar | $41/$11

No dramas with this horse running a strong 3200m, he was a 4000m winner three starts ago at Ascot. He even went over hurdles at the start of this year. Does have ability but they rode with a sit last start and gave him no chance. I think their only chance here is to take it up and run them along in front. He really needs to make it a true staying affair and get a few of them out of their comfort zone.

20. Point Of Law | $6/$2.50

Trying to become the most lightly raced horse to ever win the Cup (at only start number 6). Form had been rock solid in the UK and the horse was purchased off the King. Came out here and joined the all conquering Maher stable. They went along hard in the Geelong Cup and he stalked the leader on that hot speed. Just loomed up on the corner and showed a good turn of foot. Got challenged and simply too strong late. Has a good weight, good jockey and deserved favourite here. Genuine wet track is a question but he is hard to punch holes in that’s for sure. Also draws the perfect barrier for him.

21. Strictly Business | $101/$24

Has hardly beaten a horse home all preparation.

22. Mr Monaco | $26/$8

His last two runs have been at this track and over 2500m. He has been rock solid winning the Bart Cummings and then tough effort to run 3rd in the MV Cup. Lacks the class of some of these but a light weight on a track he likes gives him some hope of running well in an open race. The more rain that falls the better for him.

23. Zakouma | $34/$10

They knew they were in the race from May. Everything has been aimed at this day ever since, so you don’t read much into the prep. More than good enough in the Caulfield Cup when 5th and just forget the run over 1600m last start, that was essentially a barrier trial for fitness to top him off for the Cup. Drops to 52kg and can run a cheeky race here for sure.

24. Shockletz | $11/$3.90

Very underrated mare but the market hasn’t missed her here. She is a big strong mare that simply loves a stamina test. She has had three runs over 2500m (the furthest she has run) and she has won all three. She probably doesn’t want it super wet but a little rain wouldn’t hurt her. The stable knew she was in a while ago and just eased off her to time their run at the Cup to perfection. Her latest run was back to 2040m and she showed she still has good sprint in her legs. This is an old fashioned Bart Cummings type lead up and she has just 51kg on her back. Gate 17 is the only query for me and does need a good ride early. She will look the winner at some stage in the straight.

Race breakdown

All in all it’s a ripping edition of the Melbourne Cup and always a tough puzzle to piece together (especially with rain predicted)

Everything says (20) Point Of Law will get the right run and be the horse they all have to beat. The Geelong run was outstanding, he maps better than most of the leading chances and in the best stable in the land. Being so lightly raced, the query is how does he handle the atmosphere and 90,000 people on track? If he holds it together, he could be the one.

(12) Hopewell Rock just has a real sense of timing about him. Really good win two runs ago with 61kg and was enormous in the Ebor with 60.5kg. Beaten a half head there and the rider dropped the whip (May well have won). Has handled big crowds and big fields which is always a help when coming to the Cup. Feel the barrier is ok and love Zac Lloyd going on top. Just a matter of timing the run and when he pushes the button.

(18) James J Braddock is the X-factor. We just don’t know how good he is or not yet. I for one think the Derby trial win and the Epsom Derby run were excellent. The form from that has held up and 53.3kg is suitable. The lead up run was a pass mark and I have no doubt he was not fully fit there after being given time off after a gelding operation. They will have it timed to the minute and rain would be a massive help for him.

(24) Shockletz is the one who has beaten the handicapper with just 51kg. I thought she might have lacked the class but with 51kg and in this form, she can win. Always some of the best late splits in races and should eat up the 3200m. Stable seems very confident and she can match her sire Shocking and be a Melbourne Cup winner without surprising.

Rounding out my selections is probably (2) Trustyourinstinct. Well exposed and 57kg but he has a turn of foot which is what you need to win a cup. The booking of James McDonald is key and his timing in these big races is unmatched. If the rain misses, he can be promoted.

A heap of roughies for trifectas, best of them for me might be (1) Sons And Lovers, (4) Middle Earth, (10) Goodie Two Shoes, (16) So You Are and (23) Zakouma.