Jackson Oldham assesses all 24 Melbourne Cup runners, their form, ratings and chances before revealing his selections, trifecta and first four.
I could end up with egg on my face, but I’m surprised hearing plenty of people predicting this track to be genuinely rain affected. It’s a warm, drying day on Sunday and I expect Liam O’Keefe and his track staff to have the track genuinely firm come Monday morning and even if we get the higher end of the 20mm predicted, I still think it’ll be a Good 4 come 3pm on Tuesday afternoon. I have done my form and this preview for a Good track.
1. Sons And Lovers (GB) (3) 57.5kg
T: Joseph O’Brien | J: Dylan Browne-McMonagle
Peak Timeform Rating – 115
Last 5 Ratings (from oldest to most recent) 110/110/115/113/115
Sons And Lovers outperformed a 50/1 SP, splitting Jan Brueghel and West Wind Blows in the highly esteemed Hardwicke Stakes (2400m) back in June, running his career-best rating of 115 (Timeform). He then started hard in the market as a $3 favourite in the Group 2 Prix Maurice De Nieuil (2800m) and won a bunched, three-way finish with a solid 113 Timeform rating. The second-placed Parachutiste did beat home last year’s Cup favourite Presage Nocturne at his subsequent run. Sons And Lovers comes through the same lead-up as James J Braddock and Goodie Two Shoes, the Kilternan Stakes (2400m) at Leopardstown, where he did beat home Purview, which has proved to be the link through the majority of the internationals but it is worth noting that horse only produced a 113 rating here, below his 117+ of his two prior runs. Sons And Lovers had a very economical trip in the one-one and was produced at the perfect time but did lack some dash as he was conceding weight, something I am concerned about on Tuesday, as he doesn’t seem like a big horse at all.
2. Trustyourinstinct (IRE) (18) 57kg
T: Joseph O’Brien | J: James McDonald
Peak Timeform rating – 115 (Flat)
Last 5 Ratings (from oldest to most recent) 108/100/115/114+/112
He strikes me as a real ‘Australian’ type of horse, with a really sharp turn of foot when needed. Despite being a rising seven-year-old, he can do things wrong on occasion, three back over 2000m he was getting home nicely but laying in doing so, running his last 600m in 33.42s. Two runs ago in the Group 2 Curragh Cup (2800m) he beat last year’s favourite Al Riffa and did so running a great rating of 114+, the plus indicating there was more to come from a sectional point of view, quickening up nicely in a race-best 22.73s last 400m. Last start was his first go at Group 1 level in the Irish St Leger (2800m) and that $7.5 SP against Scandinavia and Jan Brueghel reads very nicely. He profiles perfectly to win and gets James McDonald aboard for good measure.
WATCH: Trustyourinstinct win the Curragh Cup
3. Knight’s Choice (2) 56.5kg
T: J G Symons & S Laxon | J: Robbie Dolan
The shock winner from two years ago, where he was the best stayer in an out-and-out test of stamina. A negative for him this year is that some of the speed has come out of the race, with the shock Saturday afternoon scratching of Defiantly. The positive for him is, he follows an almost identical profile and set-up to his one in 2024, coming back from runs in Queensland, having one run at 2000m and then two runs at 2400m. In both years, the second latest was a fast race then an even tempo at his lead up, in 2024 it was the Caulfield Cup that was the stiff stamina test before an even Bendigo Cup. This year it was the Herbert Power that was a fast race then the Caulfield Cup was just run evenly. He rises 5kg from his 2024 victory and appears about the right price for me.
4. Middle Earth (GB) (1) 56.5kg
T: Ciaron Maher | J: Mark Zahra
To use a well-worn turn of phrase, Middle Earth does seem to have a real ‘sense of timing’ about him. The then six-year-old gelding was only plugging away through his Spring preparation last year before running a cracking third in the Cup (albeit with 2kg less than this year) and you could argue with an easier run, he could’ve gone even closer. He was widest of those anywhere near the finish on the turn while the winner got runs up the inside and the second-horse was in the slot on-speed. Looking at his lead-in runs, he ran some of the best closing sectionals of the race three back in the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) then they took off and sprinted from the 800m in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) and that just didn’t suit him but he still kept coming to the line. The run in the Cox Plate was better than it looked, he ran the fastest last 100m of the race, he’s flying.
5. Vauban (FR) (22) 56.5kg
T: G Waterhouse & A Bott | J: Jordan Childs
The one-time Melbourne Cup favourite and now nine-year-old gelding, comes into yet another Melbourne Cup with what can only be described as a strange platform. He ran a really good sixth in the race last year when fifth-up off two 2400m lead-up runs. This year he comes into the race only second-up running a very basic ninth in the Geelong Cup when first-up for 151 days, that doesn’t appear the platform to be running well here.
6. Enfjaar (IRE) (8) 56kg
T: Roger Varian | J: Ray Dawson
The seven-year-old gelding has come to Australia with solid credentials and ran what I would assess to be a solid race running third in the Caulfield Cup (2400m), I thought he did have all favours in the run, tucked in behind the speed with cover and when clear, lacked a sharp turn of foot but did only run the eighth-fastest last 200m split of the race, which doesn’t scream that he wants to go up to 3200m, so the trip must be some concern. The other negative for him is equicast going on for the first time, a gear change I never like to see in the form guide.
WATCH: The 2026 Caulfield Cup
7. Royal Supremacy (IRE) (21) 56kg
T: Ciaron Maher | J: Ben Allen
Royal Supremacy appears the weakest of the Ciaron Maher-trained Septet for this year’s Melbourne Cup. Mark Zahra stole the race with the pattern onside two runs back in the JRA Cup (2000m) at Caulfield then wasn’t given anywhere near the best steer in the Caulfield Cup but still ran poorly, I thought they may want a sit following that but from the gate, Ben Allen is likely forced to go forward and I have him priced long into the triple digits.
8. Wine Dark Sea (GB) (23) 56kg
T: Harry Charlton | J: Damian Lane
It’s somewhat of an anomaly to see a horse start so short in the Caulfield Cup ($8) and then likely upwards of $71 in the Melbourne Cup but that is an indication of how poorly he ran there at Caulfield, from a somewhat advantageous position, he dropped right out and now gets the concussion plates (front) on again and equicast for the first time, not for me.
9. Asterix (NZ) (6) 55kg
T: Chris Waller | J: Jye McNeil
This is his first go at the Melbourne Cup as an eight-year-old, he showed a much improved run in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) from being almost pulled up in the Turnbull (2000m). He was forced to chase a long way out, he ran the fourth-fastest 800-600m split in the race then the fastest 600-400m before losing momentum avoiding the interference with the fall at the 200m. I believe he lacks the class to win the race but is a roughie I will be throwing in exotics and looking at in a top 10 betting market.
10. Goodie Two Shoes (IRE) (19) 55kg
T: Joseph O'Brien | J: Wayne Lordan
The now eight-year-old mare comes into this year's Melbourne Cup with arguably the strongest piece of previous-year Cup form of any runner in the field, having finished second behind Half Yours in 2025. Her preparation this year has been somewhat mixed. She won the Group 2 Lillie Langtry Stakes (2816m) at Goodwood in August, before finishing last of 10 in the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes (2400m) at Leopardstown in September but it is worth noting she was carrying 62kg on that occasion. She now rises 3.5kg from last year but at a similar price to what she went off last year, it is hard to put the pen through.
11. Juja Kibo (IRE) (14) 55kg
T: Ciaron Maher | J: Sam Clipperton
He is a six-year-old having his 21st start on Tuesday but it does feel as though he is only now starting to put it all together. He started $10 in the Sydney Cup (3200m) in the Autumn and he had excuses, pulling up with a poor recovery. He has improved every start this preparation, with a dominant win in the Metropolitan (2400m) running good splits two back then another dominant victory last start in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m) with good closing splits again. He profiles to peak but I just couldn’t get him as short as the market, you have to risk some horses in this race and he is one I will have to be against.
WATCH: Juja Kibo win the Moonee Valley Gold Cup
12. Hopewell Rock (IRE) (15) 54.5kg
T: G Boughey | J: Zac Lloyd
Peak Timeform Rating - 114
Last 5 Ratings (from oldest to most recent) 96/108+/101/113+/114
He resumed gelded off a 175-day spell at the start of this preparation with a rapidly closing third at Newmarket with the race shape against but quickening up and running 11.45s for both his 600-400m split and 400m-200m before fitness told late. He had six weeks between runs into the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (2400m) over the Royal Ascot carnival and did underwhelm versus market expectation, going off a $4.40 favourite and failing to finish off. He did run head first into a very strong pace and likely didn’t have the fitness or grounding for that, off the back of a jog trot tempo first-up. He then copped a Ryan Moore peach at Goodwood, winning a class two over 2800m and doing it in good style off a strong pace and he did so beating off Small Fry, who you can tie in through the Geelong Cup form with Point Of Law and co. Hopewell Rock then went up in weight to the Ebor and because of that, started $10 but ran another really promising race only going down narrowly in good time. The form through that race hasn’t exactly stood up but I don’t think the winner or the third horse were in great spots to run good races at their subsequent start. I believe he is another, similar to likes of James J Braddock, who lacks a turn of foot, however if they do overdo things in front, he is the one of the horses that fit that mold that I would most like to be on.
13. Onesmoothoperator (USA) (13) 54.5kg
T: Tim Fitzsimmons | J: Declan Bates
He started $7 in the 2024 Melbourne Cup behind Knight’s Choice following an impressive Geelong Cup victory but he has never reached those heights again with Australian-based trainer Tim Fitzsimmons. He showed a glimmer of something in the sectionals two runs ago in the Herbert Power (2400m), running the fastest 400-200m split of the race but was back to underwhelming last start in the Geelong Cup. I couldn’t see him finishing top 10 this year.
14. Soul Of Spain (IRE) (5) 54.5kg
T: Chris Waller | J: Tommy Berry
He is a horse who has improved sharply when getting to two miles in previous preparations, namely running second in the Sydney Cup in the Autumn. He did SP similar ($7.50 vs $5.50) to Juja Kibo in the Metropolitan (2400m) then nothing went right in the Caulfield Cup but he whacked on well. He more than likely lacks the class to be winning or even running top three but he is another who might be a decent bet for a Top 10 placing and also will go in my wider exotics.
15. Zahrann (IRE) (11) 54.5kg
T: Ciaron Maher | J: Ben Melham
I do like to take clues from some stables and two that are right up the top of the list for me, is the feeling and the word out of both Ciaron Maher and Chris Waller. All the talking leading into both the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) where he failed badly in the wet then even off that into the Caulfield Cup (2400m) was all about Zahrann. A phrase I’ve said more than once in this preview is, he was forced to sprint a long way out in the Caulfield Cup but did run the fastest 800-600m split of the race and the second-fastest 600-400m and didn’t give up the ghost late either, despite not having the platform to sustain a long 800m run. Now the blinkers go on for a stable that you have to take note of when they apply them and I really think he peaks sharply for Tuesday.
16. So You Are (7) 54kg
T: Bjorn Baker | J: Rachel King
Coming through the Bendigo Cup and with the ‘miles in the legs’ I believe he will be a trendy selection for those who are looking for the rock-hard-fit gallopers, as the Melbourne Cup will tick him to 15,000m for the preparation. He maps for a great run but I do just feel as though he has been flattered at stages this preparation, including in the Bendigo Cup, as horses on-speed and on the fence were very well suited throughout the day. I have him priced longer than the market and will leave him out of multiples because of that.
WATCH: So You Are win the Bendigo Cup
17. Future History (GB) (12) 53.5kg
T: G Hickman | J: Jamie Melham
The now nine-year-old gelding has had one attempt at the Melbourne Cup in past years, with a 15th, beaten 14L in the 2023 Melbourne Cup, won by Without A Fight. He had only 50kg on that occasion and was in better form that year too. Last year, he followed up his fourth in the JRA Cup (2040m) with a run in a Listed race in Newcastle and following his ninth in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) this year, I think he might have been better served there again this year. A top 10 finish would surprise me with this bloke.
18. James J Braddock (GB) (24) 53.5kg
T: Joseph O'Brien | J: Craig Williams
Peak Timeform rating - 112
Last 5 Ratings 102/111+/111+/77/109
A Northern Hemisphere three-year-old who appears to still be putting it all together and may be best suited to a trip like a two miles and would appreciate the tempo of a 2025 Melbourne Cup, as he doesn’t appear to have the change of speed like his stablemate Trustyourinstinct. He won a test of speed in the Group 3 Derby Trial Stakes (2000m) at Leopardstown but did so only running the last 400m in 24.02s. He then went to Epsom for the Group 1 Derby (2400m) in a stamina sapping test and ran well in a set-up that likely suited him, although his platform may have been lacking slightly for such a race. Three weeks from there into the Group 1 Irish Derby at the Curragh may explain that flop and then 76 days between runs and a gelding op produced a solid, grinding performance at Leopardstown but was soundly beaten by Purview, who you can tie back through Trustyourinstinct. A solid horse but lacks a turn of foot and a knockout punch to win a Melbourne Cup for mine.
19. Kizlyar (IRE) (20) 53.5kg
T: Joseph O'Brien | J: Beau Mertens
The five-year-old gelding gets into the field at the eleventh hour, following the withdrawal on vets for Saint George. He was extremely well supported in betting first-up in Australia, in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m). He took up the lead early on what was an extremely sedate tempo and sat in what appeared visually to be a race owning position but watching his replays overseas over 4000m, he doesn’t have a turn of foot and I don’t think that slow tempo helped him show his best. If this race is run at a fast gallop and with a low weight, a sharply improved performance wouldn’t shock at all.
20. Point Of Law (GB) (9) 53kg
T: Ciaron Maher | J: Ethan Brown
Point Of Law faces the Melbourne Cup at only his sixth-start and for him, it’s more about if he can put it all together on the day rather than a question mark on ability. He is a high-energy, high-powered tank who has shown his credentials twice in Australia so far, once when he got loose at Werribee and did multiple laps, which feels like a mix between Vauban doing high octane work prior to the Melbourne Cup and Via Sistina getting loose the Breakfast With The Best the Tuesday before the Cox Plate. By all reports his recovery from that was bafflingly good. The second was obviously on raceday, when he was left exposed coming across from the wide draw in the Geelong Cup (2400m) and wanted to get racing early but was able to soak up that high pressure and outstay them late in good time. The query is obvious, is he mature enough for 3200m and also, is he too fast for the two miles and would be better suited at 2000m? The first 800m is the most important part of the race for Ethan and this horse, if he can settle into a rhythm and find a back to follow, not get overracing and harness that energy then he is going to be very, very hard to beat.
WATCH: Point Of Law win the Geelong Cup
21. Strictly Business (4) 53kg
T: Thomas Carberry | J: Dean Yendall
She was a dominant winner of the VRC Oaks a year ago but since then, barring a close-up second in what has proved a very weak South Australian Derby, she hasn’t got back to anywhere near the form of this time last year and is my tip for last in this year's Melbourne Cup.
22. Mr Monaco (GB) (16) 52.5kg
T: Ciaron Maher | J: Jabez Johnstone
I can’t get near this guy at all at the current price of $23 and have marked him more than triple that quote. He won a slowly run Bart Cummings (2500m) two-back on a wet track then did have to make a wide and searching run in the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) last start but was all out of tickets late, running only the 10th-fastest last 100m split of the race. At his only attempt above 2500m in Australia, he started $5.50 in the Sydney Cup and went terribly and the map here will mean he will need to run a genuinely two miles, as I have him forward of midfield and three-wide the entirety.
23. Zakouma (10) 52kg
T: Grahame Begg | J: William Pike
This is Grahame Begg’s first-ever Melbourne Cup runner after getting so close to having a live chance in the race with Lunar Flare back in 2023. Zakouma was ticking over well this preparation, running the second-fastest last 200m of the race from the tail of the field in both the Heatherlie Stakes (1700m) first-up and the Naturalism Stakes (2000m) second-up. His run two back chasing a hot speed in the Herbert Power was good again, hinting he was right on track for the further trip. I don’t know what to make of his last start run dropping back to a mile, that was obviously just a tick over run, almost acting as a trial but I was still very underwhelmed and I am at pains to doubt the master trainer but I don’t like that as a profile for this race.
24. Shockletz (NZ) (17) 51kg
T: Ciaron Maher | J: Harry Coffey
At the time of writing, Harry Coffey still has the ride on Shockletz, after a nasty fall on Derby Day aboard Pondalowie. She is one horse this year who really appears to have beaten the handicapper, getting in with only 51kg. Both Ciaron and Harry have a great record with stayers and have a 24.9% profit on turnover return when combining. She showed her staying credibility when winning a strongly run Archer Stakes (2500m) here at Flemington seven weeks ago and her two runs since have been very good. I don’t have a genuine knock other than to say I don’t know if she’s able to get to a rating that will be able to win this race, she might but at the price I have to risk her.
Selections
1st - 2. TRUSTYOURINSTINCT
2nd - 20. POINT OF LAW
3rd - 15. ZAHRANN
4th - 12. HOPEWELL ROCK
5th - 4. MIDDLE EARTH
Trifecta
1st - 2/12/15/20
2nd - 2/4/9/12/14/15/19/20/24
3rd - 2/4/9/12/14/15/19/20/24
$100 for 44.64%
First Four
1st - 2/12/15/20
2nd - 2/4/9/12/14/15/19/20/24
3rd - 2/4/9/12/14/15/19/20/24
4th - 2/4/9/12/13/14/15/19/20/24
$100 for 6.37%
