Shaun Beirne is back with another edition of Bet Legends Take Us On, and while he’s confident the market has found the key chances in Thursday’s VRC Oaks, he believes punters have overreacted to the impressive Australian debut of another short-priced favourite.
Beirne has a clear top selection in the Oaks, but it’s Race 6 where he’s looking to take on the market.
VRC Oaks: Proxima Dea clearly on top
Beirne believes the Oaks is a race in three, although he rates the chances of one filly considerably higher than the others.
“There are essentially two-and-a-half winning hopes in the Oaks, and the market has found them. Proxima Dea is clearly on top for me.”
The unbeaten Proxima Dea arrives at Flemington off a dominant performance against the boys in the Spring Champion Stakes, form subsequently franked by Stormy Marco’s comfortable Derby victory.
Despite drawing wide, Beirne isn’t concerned about how the race might unfold for Zac Lloyd.
“Had she drawn a barrier, she’d be odds-on. I can envisage a fast run to the first turn and think Lloyd can drop in just behind them for a perfect position, so the barrier doesn’t concern me at all.
“I think she will win and will keep her onside, as I expect the money late.”
De Armas shapes as the main danger following her outstanding performance in Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes, traditionally one of the strongest guides to the Oaks.
“She was exceptional in the Wakeful and maps for a quiet run. Perversely, she might need some luck getting off the fence as the leaders could be compounding just when she’s trying to improve into the race.”
Beirne also gives Quick Finish a chance on the quick back-up from Saturday’s Derby.
“She stuck on well on pace with pressure. She has to peak again but is sure to be rock-hard fit.”
Race 5: Take On Perisher
It's in Race 6 where Beirne believes the market has got carried away with a last-start winner.
Perisher was outstanding at her Australian debut, but Beirne argues her overseas ratings had already suggested she was capable of producing that performance.
"Perisher was exceptional at her first start in Australia. The overseas ratings pointed to this, and the SP of $3.50 that day was well over the odds."
While acknowledging she's the most likely winner, Beirne believes her current price leaves little room for error.
"I can't help but feel the market has now overreacted. She's clearly the favourite and can improve, but she needs more than two lengths to justify the price.
"She's likely to win, but I'm happy to risk her at the short odds."
Bet Legends Special
Perisher to win by 1 length or more: $4
For those who believe Perisher can repeat her Australian debut heroics, there's a $4 special available for her to win by at least one length.
