Betsy’s Set: Cox Plate Day

Race 1

Scratchings have knocked this around. Still think there’s good speed with (9) Tonkin and (7) Beast Mode rolling at a good clip.

(8) Don’t Hope Do was terrific at Caulfield last Wednesday. He’s back to 1000m but has a good 1000m record and does get around the Valley well. Clashed with Tonkin a couple of starts back at Sandown and gets a 4kg weight turnaround today. He can camp on the back of the leaders and divebomb late.

Beast Mode was good here over the short trip last start. He bounces the gates well and should be in this a long way.

Selections:
(8) Don’t Hope Do
(7) Beast Mode
(9) Tonkin
(5) Major Share

Suggested Bet: Happy to watch on.

Race 2

Suspect (6) Cacchione and (1) Prince Tycoon the most likely leaders. (4) St Edward won’t be far away. The query runner is (2) Napoleonic who is drawn awkwardly in nine, but does have some degree of tactical speed.

Prince Tycoon won very well on debut at Caulfield before going up to the Gold Coast and being slowly away, which was costly. He has a barrier blanket here and seemed to leave the gates well in a recent jump-out. Provided he jumps cleanly he should press forward and be in this a long way.

The form around Napoleonic should stack up here. Beaten by genuine top-line 3yos in Sydney last time out and the win over Ohope at Warwick Farm looks good form for a race like this. Sticky draw, but with a few ‘go back’ horses here, think they can be positive from the gate and look to find a spot in the first four in run.

St Edward was terrific on speed n a strong maiden on debut and then got the job done at this track and trip last time out. Shinn will give him every chance from five – he looms as a major winning hope here. Cacchione comes through that same race and was good on speed on debut, should derive plenty of benefit from that.

Selections:
(1) Prince Tycoon
(2) Napoleonic
(4) St Edward
(6) Cacchione

Suggested Bet: Can have something Prince Tycoon, think he should be favourite. Quinella 1 and 2.

Race 3

Big field. (2) Stardom rolls forward with (5) Bubion and maybe (10) Proficient. (14) Extragalactic and (4) Rohesia will all be handy.

Speed looks solid enough for (12) Tres Magnifique to roll into the race down the side and make her presence felt late. She won a really strong maiden on debut at Ballarat and then had little luck behind Point Barrow last start. That form ties in nicely with the better 3yo fillies’ sprint form down here – she can measure up.

(7) Teine Aulelei is a filly I’ve got a lot of time for. She will get back to near-enough last, but will be charging at them late. She comes through a strong BM64 at Bendigo first up behind Street Artist and Lofty Thoughts (Bubion was fourth). The strong tempo and step to 1200m are both positives.

Stardom likes to roll in her races. Tongue tie going on here suggests they might have got on top of a little issue with her breathing. She was OK in the Champagne at track and trip last time out but has since had a really solid jump-out between runs, which should help bring her on third up. She beat Akaysha at the back end of her last campaign and that form is good enough to see her right in the finish.

Rohesia is going to get a nice run in transit and will run well but seems short enough.

Selections:
(12) Tres Magnifique
(7) Teine Aulelei
(2) Stardom
(10) Proficient

Suggested Bet: Like Tres Magnifique, can have something small on Teine Aulelei at a big price, as well.

Race 4

Tempo looks moderate here.

Blinkers went on (1) Salty Pearl last time out and she hit the line strongly in the Thousand Guineas. She has the advantage over her rivals of having had a spin around the Valley, running well first up in the Atlantic Jewel. Provided she jumps cleanly, think she can enjoy a very nice run in transit here and should prove hard to beat.

(3) Enviable had no luck two back and then got too far out of her ground in a slowly run Flight Stakes, working home in the 5th best last 400/200m splits of the meeting. There’s little speed here, would love to see them ride her positively.

(9) Stung has a hope. Comes out of a slow maiden on debut but she showed a super turn of foot to breeze past Homeward. Look, no doubt this is a touch stronger, but it’s not a stellar edition of the race and it wouldn’t surprise to see her measure up. Map is sticky, though.

(5) Ruska Roma didn’t have the clearest running at Flemington last time out and I thought was OK in the Jim Moloney prior. She’s got upside and can actually get a reasonable run in the race from gate seven.

Selections:
(1) Salty Pearl
(9) Stung
(3) Enviable
(5) Ruska Roma

Suggested Bet: Quinella 1,3,9

Race 5

This is a tough race.

Think (3) Casino Seventeen is going to get plenty of favours from gate one and his run in the Coongy was strong enough to be winning a race of this ilk. He was alongside (1) Middle Earth in the Underwood (was six weeks between runs prior, too) two back and ran into a dead end late. He gets a 2.5kg weight swing in his favour on Middle Earth for that clash.

(4) Future History loves it here at The Valley and he will get a soft run in the race. He’s got a bit of ground to make up on Casino Seventeen but the track certainly plays into his favour.

Interesting call having Middle Earth backing up here after running in last week’s Caulfield Cup. Blinkers go on for the first time which might spark some improvement and he’s certainly got the ratings in the locker to win a race like this.

(7) Star of India was strong late over 1800m last time out and is looking for this trip now.

Selections:
(3) Casino Seventeen
(4) Future History
(1) Middle Earth
(7) Star Of India

Suggested Bet: Not for me.

Race 6

Good speed here. (1) Jennilala, (4) Sea What I See, (14) Sunset Park, (12) Blindedbythelight and (9) She’s Unusual all press forward.

Thought (6) Movin Out ran her best race in some time at Caulfield last start and with even luck she would’ve finished much closer. Like her out to 2000m now, importantly in a race there looks to be strong tempo. At double figures, she appeals.

(8) She’s A Hustler was super late first-up at Flemington, putting her rivals to the sword first-up at 1800m. Looks like the stable have eyed off this race, giving the mare two decent jump-outs between runs, and arriving here seemingly in excellent order. She’s still so lightly raced and has more upside than most of her rivals.

She’s Unusual swapped blinkers for winkers at Rosehill last start and she went like a rocket. She’s a lightly raced 6yo mare who still seems to do a bit wrong and the stable meticulously space her runs – 28, 35, 35, 28 days between her last four runs – but she’s got the required talent and recent ratings to be winning this.

Selections:
(6) Movin Out
(8) She’s A Hustler
(9) She’s Unusual
(11) Terrestar

Suggested Bet: Movin Out E/W

Race 7

(4) Rise At Dawn leads, and gets more control with (6) El Rocko scratched. (8) Oh Too Good, (3) Desert Lightning and (5) Golden Path also press. For a smaller field, there looks really good tempo.

Provided they can make ground, the race sets up nicely for (7) Von Hauke. He has hit the line well his past two runs over 1500m (behind Transatlantic/Evaporate) and 1400m. The step to a genuinely run mile now looks ideal. The strong tempo should help him get into the race and he has the services of gun jockey Ethan Brown.

I also think (1) Pinstriped is over the odds at $8. He hasn’t had a lot of luck in either the Rupert Clarke or the Toorak Handicap at his past two starts. He loves it here at The Valley and draws for a sweet run.

Rise At Dawn will be hard to catch. Maybe asked to do a bit too much early first up at Flemington in a faster run 1400m and then ran well up on speed in the Shannon at Rosehill last start. Maps well, fitter now third up after a strong trial between runs. Last run at a mile was beaten half-a-length in a Doncaster (albeit with 51kg under Handicap conditions).

Golden Path probably didn’t get the 2000m of the Turnbull last start so drops back to the mile. He maps well and the Underwood placing two back reads well for this, but I think he’s too short at $4.20.

Selections:
(7) Von Hauke
(1) Pinstriped
(4) Rise At Dawn
(3) Desert Lightning

Suggested Bet: Backing Von Hauke and Pinstriped

Race 8

Speed from (3) Tropicus, (1) Jigsaw, who likely fight for the lead. (2) Regal Zeus can be handy, but is better known to be on speed over further.

Tricky gate for (5) Charm Stone who is going to need a good ride/some luck. Look, she’s a last start Group 1 winner, and won that Manikato dominantly. But, she did have plenty of favours (soft run/track pattern) that she may not get on Saturday from the outside draw – so it’s a different challenge. Of course she can win, but she’s too short for me at $2.30.

Big fan of (9) Vestas and her return in the 1200m Northwood Plume at Caulfield was outstanding. She was terrific her first two career starts but went off the boil a bit in the autumn. Jump-outs this time in suggested she was back to something like her best and I suspect that’s the case. She will settle second-half here but be strong late.

(7) Niance can also win. She was held up/good late behind Giga Kick at Caulfield, the same race Tropicus comes through, and I think she can turn the tables on that galloper. Drawing off the fence is better for her than the gate one she had last time out.

Selections:
(9) Vestas
(7) Niance
(5) Charm Stone
(3) Tropicus

Suggested Bet: Backing Vestas, smaller Niance

Race 9

The favourite, (1) Observer is clearly the horse to beat. Should’ve won the Caulfield Guineas and, whilst it doesn’t look a vintage 3yo year, that is good form for this. The little query is fitness going 1300 to 1600 to 2040m, but he’s bred to get the trip and he’s on a Derby path, so that’s only a minor concern. He can make his own luck up on speed and is the one they have to beat.

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To access this special, click here.

Still a maiden! (5) Providence has had little luck in his past two starts. He got slammed into the running rail when making ground in the straight two back at Rosehill. He then got buried away on the rail in the Gloaming last start and worked home in restricted room. The step to 2040m looks ideal, and potentially getting away from the rail and building momentum could bring about further improvement. He’s a key hope, especially if the favourite doesn’t show up.

(6) O’Sheamus worked home well to break his maiden last time out, and his work past the post screamed ‘2000m’. Drawn to get a soft run from gate two, he can figure if the breaks fall his way.

(2) Options continues to improve with each run. He has done little wrong and with two 1800m runs under his belt is going to be very fit.

Selections:
(1) Observer
(5) Providence
(2) Options
(6) O’Sheamus

Suggested Bet: Want $2.10+ to back Observer. Maybe quinella 1,5

Baggybet are offering Betsy readers an enhanced $5 about Observer to win Saturday’s Vase (max bet $10).

To access this special, click here.

Race 10

Hasn’t been a lot between (6) Via Sistina, (2) Antino and (8) Aeliana at their last two meetings and this could come down to tactics and speed map.

Via Sistina has drawn ideally in gate five. Don’t think the farcically run Makybe helped her two back. She again got into a slower run race in the Turnbull but made good late ground. Going through her ratings, I don’t think she’s that far off where she was leading into last year’s Cox Plate and drawing inside both Aeliana and Antino is a big plus. Don’t think she needs to get near the number she ran last year in winning, but think she’s going to improve big time off the Turnbull and that makes her the starting point in the race.

Aeliana wasn’t quite able to build her revs as Damian Lane might’ve liked in the Turnbull and she sprinted home well in a farcially run Makybe the start prior (got past Via Sistina late). Query for mine is she raced like a mare looking for 2400m last start and she is drawn to settle towards the tail. But, she’s a classy mare and has a good hope of going one better than her sire, Castelvecchio, who finished second to Lys Gracieux in the 2019 Cox Plate.

We thought Blake Shinn might ‘press the button’ and take off on Antino in the Makybe Diva, but he resisted. He then pressed forward in the Turnbull and was sound up on speed. He’s going terrifically this time in and I suspect we will finally see Shinn wind it up form the 1000/800m mark to try and catch his rivals napping. He’s short enough, for mine, but absolutely a winning chance.

There was chatter Treasurethe Moment was going to go for a spell following her Might and Power run and now she’s $6 in a Cox Plate? No doubting her talent, she’s going to get a soft run, but off her last two performances following a colic setback it’s awfully hard to get her anywhere near that price.

Selections:
(6) Via Sistina
(8) Aeliana
(2) Antino
(9) Nepotism