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Mad Monday: The Valley in review

Betsy's Matt Welsh looks back at Saturday's action from the Valley. The standouts, the hits, the misses, the quirky and the horses to follow.

Matt Welsh by Matt Welsh
August 26, 2025
in Racing News, Tips
Reading Time: 11 mins read
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For the Time Poor:
Moment of the Day Baraqiel (R7)’s soap-opera comeback win in the Carlyon Stakes, with jubilant owners stealing the show.
Steer of the Day Lachie Neindorf’s 10/10 ride on Pudding (R6).
Tactics Questioned Dragoon (R6) – led at a reasonable clip and won over 1400m start prior Then took a sit in a moderately run race up to a mile on Saturday?
Flashing Lights (Follow) Bur Dubai (R4), Estremo (R5), Globe (R8), Robrick (R9)
Forgive Runs Regal Award (R5), Oak Hill (R7).
Pattern Typical rail +5m On-pace and inside lanes favoured; wide runs around the bend punished.
Track Note Times didn’t support the Good 4 upgrade.
Social Media Sin Bin Criticism of Jamie Mott on Godtfred Kirk (R3) way off the mark – they can’t jump over them.

This table provides a race-by-race snapshot of how each event at The Valley on Saturday was run and won. Using sectional time data benchmarked against historical standards, it delivers an easy-to-digest breakdown of early speed, late speed, and an overall race rating – giving you a clear picture of tempo and performance at a glance.

Race Winner PIR @ 800m Lane @ 800m PIR @ 400m Lane @ 400m Early Speed Overall Rating
1 Cherish Me 4 2 3 3 V.Slow Poor
2 Jennivamoose (NZ) 7 1 5 6 Slow Average
3 Bingi 2 2 2 2 Even Average
4 Navy King (NZ) 1 1 1 2 V.Fast Average
5 Space Rider 3 1 3 1 Even Average
6 The Creator (NZ) 1 2 1 2 Even Below Average
7 Baraqiel 4 1 4 1 V.Slow Below Average
8 Hard To Cross (NZ) 3 3 3 3 Fast High
9 Red Hot Nicc 1 1 1 2 Even Average
Column Explanation
PIR @ 800m Position in running at the 800m (1 = leader; lower = closer to pace).
Lane @ 800m Track lane the horse occupied at 800m (1 = inside rail; higher = wider).
PIR @ 400m Position in running at the 400m.
Lane @ 400m Track lane the horse occupied at 400m.
Early Speed Benchmarks how fast the leader went to the 800m vs historical performance.
Late Speed How fast the race came home (late sectionals) vs historical performance.
Overall Rating Analyst rating considering speed shape, sectionals, track pattern, and what’s expected for the class.
Track Summary:
  • Typical rail 5m: no disadvantage to be on speed/nearer inside, especially as the day wore on.
  • Every winner bar Jennivamoose (R2) raced in the first four at both the 800m and 400m.
  • Horses making wide runs around the home bend should be ‘bonused’.
  • Times didn’t support the upgrade to a Good 4; no race went close to the ‘Good’ track standard time.
Moment of the Day – Baraqiel’s Soap Opera

Baraqiel’s return to racing has been nothing short of dramatic. Scratched first-up at Caulfield after RV vets weren’t satisfied with his action, the Corstens-Larkin team worked overtime to get him cleared. On Saturday, he nearly didn’t run again after being vetted behind the gates – but this time the story ended in triumph.

Baraqiel overcame all the drama to land the Carlyon Stakes, sending his big group of owners into raptures in one of the most emotional wins of the day.

Baraqiel’s owners celebrate after he takes out the Listed Carlyon Stakes 🙌 pic.twitter.com/kx61NfzgmE

— Racing.com (@Racing) August 23, 2025

Steer of the Day – Lachie Neindorf on Pudding (Race 6)

Pudding had been buried back at recent starts, but Neindorf made a decisive move to be positive early, landing in the perfect spot. From there, the gelding had every possible hope and ran a brave second. A textbook “10/10” steer: he didn’t win, but he maximised the horse’s chance.

The Valley Race 6 | The Creator

The Creator dominates from the front under a bold front-running ride by @Logez27 💫 That’s a race-to-race double for @MickPriceRacing 👏

📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/IfQj7fhUlO

— Racing.com (@Racing) August 23, 2025

Tactics Questioned – Dragoon (R6)

Dragoon led all the way fresh in slick time, but connections rode for cover on Saturday despite the lack of obvious speed. He may not have won regardless, but when you’ve got natural pace, the front is usually the easiest place to win from. A tactical own-goal.

The Flashing Light:
  • Race 4 – Bur Dubai: Screaming to win. Excellent late splits second-up; third-up over 2000–2500m he looks ready to strike.
  • Race 5 – Estremo: Sydney 3YO form looks strong this spring. Terrific late here and can turn the tables on rivals soon.
  • Race 8 – Globe: The tempo was hot here so Globe’s effort first-up to stick on and run a narrow second against race-fit horses was super.
  • Race 9 – Robrick: The backmarkers were given no hope the way the races was run. Robrick ran up backsides over the final furlong and should’ve finished much closer. Jump-out well prior; clearly come back in good order and can run well second up.

The Valley Race 4 | Navy King

Navy King is the stronger! 👑 @wilde_racing‘s front-runner refused to hand up the lead in the straight 💪

📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/4vVn3O7Oj8

— Racing.com (@Racing) August 23, 2025

They Left It In The Bag:
  • Race 5 – Regal Award: Never handled The Valley, raced like a drunk sailor around the bend. Forgive and back on a bigger track.
  • Race 7 – Oak Hill: Well-backed but head in the air down the side, never settled off a farcical tempo. The winner too good, but this was an ugly watch.

Carlyon Stakes | Baraqiel

He’s back 😤 Baraqiel remains perfect at The Valley, reigning supreme in a scintillating edition of the Carlyon Stakes for @MaluaRacing & @bennallen44 💯

📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/FOkDNitlPg

— Racing.com (@Racing) August 23, 2025

What the….?!

Thomas Stockdale pulled off daylight robbery aboard track specialist Red Hot Nicc in the last. The gelding pinched three lengths on the field coming down the side, despite only carving out moderate early sectionals. Chasers like De Bergerac rattled home – in fact he produced the best last 400m and 200m splits of the meeting – but by then the race was done and dusted. The bird had flown before they’d even straightened.

Bravo, Tom.

Social Media Sin Bin:

Plenty of online criticism was directed at Jamie Mott for his ride on Godtfred Kirk, which was harsh in the extreme. The gelding was always going to settle midfield, and when the one split appeared, Crossbow laid in and closed it instantly. Sometimes there is simply no run.

If you were among those piling on Motty, take a good hard look at yourself.

The Valley Race 3 | Bingi

Bingi causes an unexpected result under a brilliant ride by @lil_spaino96 🔥 @moodyracingpgm is on the board at The Valley 💯

Tags: BlackbookSpring CarnivalThe Valley
Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh is the founder of Betsy and one of Australia’s most respected form analysts. A former executive at Racing.com and Racing Victoria, Matt has built a reputation for market-leading analysis, clear communication, and a deep understanding of both racing and wagering. With Betsy, he has assembled a team of trusted, high-quality form analysts dedicated to delivering expert analysis that will arm Betsy punters for a winning day at the races.

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