Saturday’s program is littered with progressive, short-priced favourites that all appear appropriately priced. That’s fine from a tipping perspective, but from a wagering standpoint, there’s simply no value in taking the current quotes about Sneaky Sunrise, Knobelas, Job Done and Beast Mode. In fact, we’ll be betting against a few of them.
Race 3 shapes as an open affair, 4/1 the field at this stage. Mixxit heads the market after a reasonable first-up run behind Shiny New Deel over the mile at Cranbourne. He was well supported on that occasion and duly ran well, but he would need to improve again to win this race. That’s not to say he can’t; he certainly can, and he’s previously raced to a level of form good enough to win here on multiple occasions. The case against him is the awkward draw, and that Enver Jusufovic has engaged Emily Pozman to navigate the race.
I’d replace Mixxit as favourite with Angland, who was heavily backed on Ballarat Cup Day before unseating the rider and causing trouble in the straight. Grahame Begg is an elite trainer, and there’s no doubt he wouldn’t be here if the horse wasn’t at peak health and fitness.
Barrier 13 is far from perfect, but Angland has the capability to take up a prominent position and run a figure that places him as the runner to beat.
He’s had two consecutive runs below his typical high standard that are easily forgiven, and he can quickly return to form and win this race.
He’s looking for a dry surface and, after three scorching days in Melbourne, he’s sure to get it. I’ve marked him $4.20.
Knobelas has been exciting through five career starts, winning three and finishing runner-up in the other two. It’s hard to make a plausible case against his chances; he’s almost certain to start favourite and is a dominant winning hope, but just north of even money is too short for mine. I’ve marked him $2.50, and I expect the market to correct itself closer to jump time.
The horse I’m prepared to gamble on to beat Knobelas is Dark Simba, who was sent out a well-supported 2/1 chance at Rosehill in an awfully slowly run race. There was little more he could have done in a scenario that became heavily on-pace dominated. First, second and fourth at the turn finished first, second and third. Now third-up after two strong bridging runs, Dark Simba has the ability to put himself in a prominent position and race to a level of form that can knock Knobelas off.
One I’ll throw up at odds is Shaime, a talented mare on her day, despite not having won for over 500 days. Her last preparation was a complete write-off and should be quickly forgotten. She resumed over 1000 metres at Sandown, underperformed on heavy ground at Mornington, was held up at Caulfield, and then found herself on the wrong side of the track at Flemington.
She’s trialled as though she’s happy and healthy, and she should acquit herself well against what looks like a relatively mediocre group of mares.
For the thrill-seekers, I wouldn’t talk you out of Touchdown either.
I’ve marked him $1.80, so if you can secure even money, it’s a bet worth having. Lindsay Park has done well to work him through the grades to this point, and I suspect he may be a Stakes-quality horse in the making. On that basis, he should comfortably handle this field in the opening race.
Best bet: Race 4 No.8 Dark Simba @ $6.00
Next best bet: Race 3 No.1 Angland @ $6.00
Value bet: Shaime @ $21.00
Best favourite on the program: Race 1 No. 4 Touchdown @ $1.90
