The Group 1 Australasian Oaks shapes as a fascinating contest this year, with a mix of proven staying fillies and emerging types stepping up to 2000m. With a moderate tempo likely and barriers playing a key role, map and race shape could prove crucial in determining the result.
Mitch Lewis has assessed every runner in the field, outlining their chances and how the race may unfold.
(1) Strictly Business – T: T Carberry J: J Allen
She was the winner of the VRC Oaks at Flemington during the Spring Carnival. Her form was excellent last prep but in two runs so far this time in, she hasn’t quite reached that same level and needs to improve to be winning this. Drawn wide which makes things awkward early.
WATCH: Strictly Business win the Crown Oaks:
(2) Getta Good Feeling – T: D O’Brien J: B Egan
Looks likely to start favourite. She won the Wakeful Stakes last prep over 2000m before starting short in the VRC Oaks. Suggest she didn’t handle the 2500m there, so this setup looks ideal third up at 2000m. Maps well and comes into this in strong form, the one to beat.
WATCH: Getta Good Feeling win the Alexandra Stakes
(3) Salty Pearl – T: C Maher J: B Allen
A good winner two starts back at Caulfield before running a close third in the strong Vinery Stud Stakes at Rosehill. That form reads well and proved she handles 2000m. Maps for a favourable run and looks one of the stronger chances.
(4) Panova – T: C Waller J: J McDonald
Has finished midfield in three runs this prep but those races have been strong and read well for this. Fair to say she had little luck last start. With a better run she can improve, though the wide barrier means she will need things to go her way.
(5) Mating Call – T: D Clarken & O Macgillivray J: J Melham
Has been building nicely this prep and broke through for a strong win in the Auraria Stakes over 1800m. That’s the key lead-up and she was strong late, so stepping to 2000m looks ideal. The best of the local hopes.
WATCH: Mating Call win the Auraria Stakes
(6) Spicy Lu – T: N Olive J: Z Lloyd
Needs a career peak to be winning, but the map could be key. This looks only moderate speed and she may find the front. If able to control the tempo, she could give herself every chance. Rough hope.
(7) Freedom Flame – T: A Gluyas J: T Johnstone
Takes time to hit peak form each prep. Ran well last start when second in the Auraria after settling on speed. Looks to have found her best now and may find the lead from barrier 1. One of the better rough chances.
(8) Bona Sforza – T: S Finnegan J: A Lawson-Carroll
New Zealand visitor who won a Listed 1600m race last start. First try at 2000m and maps for a tough run from a wide barrier. Needs a lot to go right.
(9) Stung – T: B, W & JD Hayes J: K McEvoy
Looked sharp winning the Clare Lindop Stakes two starts ago. Disappointed in the Auraria but had excuses. Worth another chance but wide draw makes things tricky early.
(10) Savitiri – T: M Freedman J: B Melham
Lightly raced with a strong early record. Needs to step up to this level but won well last start and should handle 2000m.
(11) Kazaru – T: P Stokes J: L Neindorf
Winner of the Tasmanian Oaks. Hit the line well in the Auraria and may have been underdone there. Fitter second up and up to 2000m suits, can improve.
(12) Paltrow Miss – T: C Maher J: C Williams
Lightly raced filly with two wins from three starts. This is a big rise in grade but she shapes as one who will stay strongly and could surprise.
(13) Naraghi – T: L Howley J: A Kelly
Ran well for third in the Auraria. Likely to push forward again and hold a spot if the tempo is moderate. The 2000m is the query and she needs a soft run.
(14) Just Kick – T: E & D Browne J: H Coffey
Improved into the placings last start when rising in distance. Further improvement likely at 2000m but still a maiden and needs a big jump to be winning this.
(15) Synthesise – T: M Seyers J: K Crowther
Placed two starts back but never looked a threat in the Auraria. The 2000m looks a stretch and she needs everything to go right.
(16) Cushioned – T: A & S Freedman J: D Stackhouse
Won her maiden last start over 2000m at Pakenham. This is a big jump to Group 1 level but she has proven she can run the trip and maps well.
(17) Oui Oui Ma Cherie (EM1) – T: S Gower J: T Voorham
Ran well in a Listed race earlier this prep but hasn’t shown much since. Hard to see her figuring here on recent form.
(19) Boomeroo (EM3) – T: A & S Freedman J: Z Lloyd
Finished well back in the Auraria and needs significant improvement. The 2000m may suit better but looks unlikely.
(20) Innominate (EM4) – T: R Huxtable J: Z Spain
Won a 1600m maiden at Murray Bridge last start. This is a steep rise in class if she gains a start.
Selections:
(2) Getta Good Feeling
(3) Salty Pearl
(5) Mating Call
(7) Freedom Flame
Suggested Bet: (2) Getta Good Feeling WIN
