Mitchy’s Balaklava Tips: Lewis picks apart Sunday’s SA meeting

Summary of Best Bets

Best Bet: Race 6 (4) Southern Monarch
Next Best: Race 4 (4) Regimented

Turf Talk

• The track is rated a Soft 7 at the time of writing. Only a slight chance of showers is forecast, so the surface is unlikely to change significantly unless more rain arrives than expected.
• The rail moves to +7m from the 950m to the 450m before shifting to +3m for the remainder of the circuit.
• Balaklava generally favours runners settling on speed. As the meeting progresses, expect jockeys to edge wider in the straight if they search for fresher ground.

Stats that matter

• Alysha Warren continues to make the most of her 1.5kg claim, riding 15 winners from her past 100 rides while producing an impressive +23.4% profit on turnover.
• Roslyn Day’s stable has enjoyed an outstanding winter, producing 16 winners from its past 100 starters with a +38.9% POT. She saddles three runners at Sunday’s meeting.

Race 4

(4) Regimented took a significant step forward last start when finishing a close second in a race similar to this. He and the winner put a sizeable gap on the remainder of the field, and with another favourable map, he looks well placed to go one better.

(5) Sungazer worked through the line steadily at his latest outing and should appreciate the rise in distance. He strips fitter second-up and is capable of improving.

(12) Wings Of Destiny has placed in two of her three runs this preparation and maps for a soft run on speed from the inside draw, making her another genuine winning chance.

(9) Majestic Glow is another capable of racing prominently. While his recent form has been mixed, he joins a new stable and could improve with the change of scenery.

Selections

(4) Regimented
(5) Sungazer
(12) Wings Of Destiny
(9) Majestic Glow

Suggested Bet: (4) Regimented – Win

Race 6

(4) Southern Monarch has made an impressive start to her career, winning two of her three starts. She has shown plenty of early speed and, from barrier two, should land in an ideal position. If she controls the race up front, she’ll prove very difficult to run down.

(10) Aloha Blue has mixed recent form but boasts a strong record at this track and distance. He handles a range of conditions and is capable of returning to his best in this company.

(3) Sharendipity broke through for a deserved win last start after a string of disappointing results. He’ll take confidence from that performance and remains unbeaten at Balaklava.

(2) Squad recorded his latest victory over this track and distance after settling on speed. His racing pattern is well suited to Balaklava and he can bounce back.

Selections

(4) Southern Monarch
(10) Aloha Blue
(3) Sharendipity
(2) Squad

Suggested Bet: (4) Southern Monarch – Win