Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: R8 (4) Miss Sghirripa
Next Best: R1 (1) Big Brute
R7 (9) Good Expectations
Turf Talk
- Clear weather conditions are forecast for today’s meeting which should see the track rated at a Good 4
- The rail returns to the true position for this meeting
- Give a slight advantage to on speed types in dry conditions at this track
Key stats
- Garret Lynch’s stable has found strong form producing 18 winners from his last 100 runners with a healthy POT return of +33.4%
- Tala Hutchinson has been in super form as a 2kg claiming apprentice, she has ridden 21 winners in her previous 100 rides with a POT return of +41.4%
Race by race overview
Race 1
(1) Big Brute comes into this freshened since winning a Saturday grade race early last month, on paper this appears an easier race for him, and he maps for a positive run so could prove tough to catch in this set up.
(3) Miss Kermie hit the line strongly last start but perhaps didn’t appreciate a slow tempo early in the race, could be set up better here with more speed likely.
(4) Gruelling was average in a stronger race last start so appears better suited dropping in grade and potentially can settle closer to the leaders this time.
(2) Sandastan didn’t show much in his 1st up run but has the scope to improve fitter 2nd up and in what should be an easier race for him.
Selections:
(1) Big Brute
(3) Miss Kermie
(4) Gruelling
(2) Sandastan
Suggested Bet: (1) Big Brute – Win
Race 2
(8) Fringes has been average in her two runs for a new stable since arriving from New Zealand, but she should find this a much easier race than either of those runs and she is a runner who looks in need of more ground so expect she can be a sharp improver today.
(4) Captain Love is rock hard fit having been running over these staying distances in his last pair of runs, he sets up well from barrier 1 and can potentially lead and control the race.
(5) Harsh has been moderate in 2 runs so far this prep but looks a likely improver fitter 3rd up today and rising to a suitable distance.
(3) Valued is suited back up in distance today and gets in well in the weights thanks to the handy claim from in-form apprentice, Tala Hutchinson.
Selections:
(8) Fringes
(4) Captain Love
(5) Harsh
(3) Valued
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
(7) Cosmic Interlude was well supported in her resuming run at Morphettville but had some issues and never looked a chance. She is likely to be better for that run and can bounce back, looks set up well jumping from barrier 2.
(10) Unclothed has looked close to a breakthrough win having placed in her 2 most recent runs, expecting a positive map here which is likely to suit.
(1) Now East ran well last start but had his result taken away, he does have speed which should set him up well at this track but he will require luck from the wide barrier.
(5) Dragon Fish has been around the mark in similar race in her last few starts, she can go close again with a favourable race map and remaining well in at the weights.
Selections:
(7) Cosmic Interlude
(10) Unclothed
(1) Now East
(5) Dragon Fish
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(7) Silent Legacy showed good improvement second-up to run 2nd at Strathalbyn. He is fitter here again now so looks likely to be suited at the 1400m trip and in a race that appears to lack early speed, he should get run of the race.
(10) Alpine Lee comes into this race fitter 2nd up and with a much better race map than last start, expect she can be a sharp improver in a more suitable set up.
(3) Paganini hit the line strongly last start so looks suited rising in distance off the back of that.
(6) Rock Shot was solid when midfield in his debut at Penola. He looks likely to improve off that performance having had the experience and in a race with a moderate tempo, he should race in a strong position.
Selections:
(7) Silent Legacy
(10) Alpine Lee
(3) Paganini
(6) Rock Shot
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(5) Scootathewoota has finished midfield in his previous two runs, but this looks likely to be a drop in level from either of those runs and he ran 2nd in his previous start here at this track, can be an improver in a set up that looks likely to suit.
(3) Starcho Libre ran well when resuming and again looks likely to get an ideal run up on speed, a positive race map should suit here and help him see out a strong 1400m.
(2) Lunar Vista has hit the line well in his previous two runs finishing 3rd in both. The rise in distance looks likely to be ideal but he may need luck from a wide barrier.
(1) Harrino looks likely to get a forward run here with a positive jockey on board and jumping from barrier 1, he should race prominently which is likely to suit.
Selections:
(5) Scootathewoota
(3) Starcho Libre
(2) Lunar Vista
(1) Harrino
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
(5) Swycho ran nowhere first-up and finished last but that was in a much tougher race than what she finds herself in here today, she jumps from a low barrier today which sets her up to race forwards, so should be much better set up here and a likely sharp improver.
(1) Midlife Crisis is in form having won 2 of his past 3 starts, this doesn’t appear to set up any harder than the last race he won, and he sets up for a positive run from a low barrier so should figure strongly.
Feel (6) Top Of The Ridge didn’t appreciate the track last start, and his form previously stacks up well in a race of this level, he should be an improver today.
(8) Bolted In has a good record here at Balaklava, a big weight may have told on him late last start, but he will get in much better at the weights today relative to the field and can bounce back.
Selections:
(5) Swycho
(1) Midlife Crisis
(6) Top Of The Ridge
(8) Bolted In
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
(9) Good Expectations was well supported when resuming but couldn’t catch a fit leader. She is fitter herself now which should likely bring on a level of improvement, she needs an even playing surface but should be hitting the line strongly again.
(6) Never Surrender was a winner at this track/distance set up two starts back before tackling a stronger race last time to finish back in the field. Drops back in grade today and at a track he has had success at, he can be an improver.
(1) Olive Baguette is a last start winner and rates highly in this field. He has weight due to that rating but gets a handy apprentice claim and runs his best over this 1200m distance.
(10) Stolen Kiss can mix her form, but this is the easiest race she may have contested for some time so could be a likely improver down in grade.
Selections:
(9) Good Expectations
(6) Never Surrender
(1) Olive Baguette
(10) Stolen Kiss
Suggested Bet: (9) Good Expectations – Win
Race 8
(4) Miss Sghirripa resumes here, this is a drop in grade from the races she contested at the end of last prep and this looks a suitable kick off race. Her two recent trials have been very impressive and if she transfers that to the races, she looks the one to beat.
(5) Zoutrail has run into the placings in her previous 2 starts, finishing within 1L of the winner in both. She is at peak fitness for this now and looks likely to feature closely again.
(1) Royal Trapeze ran 3rd in a similar race to this last start; he sets up well jumping from barrier 1 today if the track is playing as expected.
(7) Astromancer resumes, she has both a consistent record 1st up into a prep and at this track, she is in light at the weights after an apprentice claim so is capable of a prominent 1st up performance.
Selections:
(4) Miss Sghirripa
(5) Zoutrail
(1) Royal Trapeze
(7) Astromancer
Suggested Bet: (4) Miss Sghirripa – Win
