Summary of Best Bets:
Value: Race 1 No.4 Bine – Just looks overs at the double figures and worth a small play.
Race 7 No.4 Big Papa – Not really an e/w man but at this $6 quote he’s hard to see missing a place.
Race 8 No.8 Need Some Luck $7.50 and smaller #12 Zaszou $10
Turf Talk:
- Rail True
- Forecast is up in the air.
- Hot days but a chance of a storm or two leading in. They would be welcomed as this track can get firm if they miss the rain.
Stats that matter:
- Ryan Maloney is doing a good job of getting them over the line. In his last 50 rides he has 11 placings but 12 winners in that time. I thought he might have had a stronger book of rides today.
- The Munce stable have finally cooled off after not being able to lose (it seemed like). Only 5 winners from their last 50 and ROI of -50%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Good quality CL6 plate and good speed as you’d expect.
I feel (4) Bine might be the one who can sit off that speed and wait for the splits to come late. Mallyon is as patient as they come and that’s a positive on this track. She has her fair share of weight but is consistent and can be strong late. Surprised at $9 early markets.
(1) Holy Racket likes this track and looks to find the box seat. Started the prep well, then put in a couple of plain ones before a dominant win last start. This is harder but you have to respect off that last effort.
Have always been a fan of (5) Belegato but he got concussion plates on last week, didn’t respond to riding and was horrible. If they possibly turn that around, how, will be the question.
(2) Jonny Da Wolf and (9) Sisstainable might be the next best.
Selections:
(4) Bine
(1) Holy Racket
(2) Jonny Da Wolf
(9) Sisstainable
Suggested Bet: Small e/w bet (4) Bine
Race 2:
Was very keen (2) Agent Zero at double figures last start and it went enormous, just found one better. This is an easier race and the trip shouldn’t be a concern. In the best yard and good jock on top.
(1) Tambeloa was 3rd in that race and was 4th in a G1 over 2000m in October. Has a bit of class and can run well.
The smokies are in the Maher yard.
(5) Dad And Dave was only a maiden winner last start and looks to be learning what it’s all about. Might have all come a bit too soon but he looks an out and out stayer. If the others are weak late he might be the strong one.
(6) Royal Princess wasn’t too far off Agent Zero at Hawksbury last start.
Selections:
(2) Agent Zero
(5) Dad And Dave
(1) Tambeloa
(6) Royal Princess
Suggested Bet: Quinella 2,5
Race 3:
This race is going to have a huge bearing on the 2 year old classic race for the Magic Millions.
Let’s work down the page with the main chances.
(1) Warwoven was in the market on debut. Jumped OK and sat midfield. The leader went way too hard and this horse had to do all the chasing. Not only picked it up but went straight past. Looks a strong type who may well go to another level off that experience.
(2) Lumbini is a Russian Revolution filly and she was outstanding at the Gold Coast. Settled midfield and looked as though she’d be the unlucky runner until Clark nearly knocked down the main danger. Then showed a super turn of foot to put them away. Looks a ready made 2 year old for Waterhouse/Bott.
(5) Say You Will is a winning hope at big odds in the Millions for mine. She was the unlucky runner that got hammered by Lumbini and her chances were over after that. She’d come from last there and her run was magnificent. Gate 8 of 8 means she probably has to go back to last here, otherwise I might have had her on top.
Selections:
(2) Lumbini
(5) Say You Will
(1) Warwoven
Suggested Bet: Happy to watch.
Race 4:
(4) Band Of Brothers has accepted in a feature later on but looks the winner here if they decide to run. Has been a model of consistency since joining the Dunn camp and will be up on speed and in the first 3-4 settling. Mallyon knows the horse well and very hard to beat.
(6) Mickey’s Medal has been good this time in work in good grade. Just not one of mine to be honest.
(7) Mister Bianco has very good ability and I thought he’d be in a different level by now. It was a tough win after being wide last start and fitter now. This is a fair bit harder though.
(13) Esjay and (12) Quothquan place chances. Like Quothquan as a horse but he doesn’t love EF.
Selections:
(4) Band Of Brothers
(6) Mickey’s Medal
(7) Mister Bianco
Suggested Bet: Win bet (4) Band Of Brothers
Race 5:
(3) Walsh Bay has essentially been in work for 7 months, how the heck can they keep her up? Her best would just be winning this but I just don’t feel last start was anywhere near her best. The rest of them are just washed up, no good or mix form. Probably still wins.
(1) Sibaaq had been pretty weak in races and then 3rd up $17 into $9.50 and wins, work that out… I have no idea what he will produce if we are being honest, market seems to tell the story with him the last couple of preps.
I can’t think of anything nice to say about any of them. Can’t stand the look of this race and couldn’t bet with someone else’s money.
Selections:
(3) Walsh Bay
(1) Sibaaq
(4) Red Wave
(8) Felix The Scat
Suggested Bet: Nope
Race 6:
Well (1) Dance To The Boom and (2) Midnight In Tokyo have the picket fences building and just keep winning. Dance To The Boom has won 6 of 9 and been freshened since the Group 3 win at Flemington over the carnival. Gets the run of the race and every chance. Midnight In Tokyo has been hard in the market and well placed to win two Listed races on the trot. Gate 12 isn’t ideal here but likely to be positive and try to take bad luck out of the equation. If the track was a Good 3 she might be susceptible, likes the cut out.
I’d like it 1100m for (3) Shalaa’s Moment but she is a knockout chance here. No luck fresh for the new stable and trials had been good. 1200m sees her out but draws to be ridden for luck and that can work at EF.
(7) Lonhro’s Queen has been consistent since joining Munce and had the form around Midnight In Tokyo, have to respect back to 1200m.
Selections:
(2) Midnight In Tokyo
(1) Dance To The Boom
(3) Shalaa’s Moment
(7) Lonhro’s Queen
Suggested Bet: Nope.
Race 7:
No great speed here unless something changes tactics.
Love the fact (2) Ninja is one you can trust. Has been good every career run and Berry is on top. The fresh run was full of merit and not the clearest path at a critical time. Fitter now and just needs a good ride early from the gate.
Baker brings (4) Big Papa and he has plenty of upside. Gate 4 is a blessing and King knows/rides the horse well. He is tactically versatile and just seems a ready-made racehorse who does everything right. Can keep improving and Baker is deadly bringing them north.
Lots might have (11) Shady Road leading because of last start but the run before that she came from last and showed a great turn of foot. I’d be surprised if they didn’t decide to box seat or get some cover this time around. Lightly raced in a good stable and rock hard fit now.
Selections:
(4) Big Papa
(2) Ninja
(11) Shady Road
Suggested Bet: E/W (4) Big Papa if the price holds up.
Race 8:
This is always an interesting race but, gee, some of these are older now and mix their form, I have trust issues.
No idea what you will get out of (4) The Three Hundred but was $9 into $6.50 late when resuming and winning the $150k race at Wyong. Tactically versatile and with Waterhouse/Bott so watch the market again.
Have always liked (8) Need Some Luck and he has won or placed in 13 of 16. Brilliant win fresh on heavy ground at Flemington and then well beaten after being wide at Cranbourne. Pretty ordinary there but freshened and trialled well for this. Out to 1400m looks suitable.
(9) Tuned nosed out Band Of Brothers last start and meets it 2kg better for beating it. Wide gate is sticky but right in this and is just a ‘winner’.
(12) Zaszou has been a slow build but the timing is perfect from Maher. 4th up here, rock hard fit now, drops 5kg off the last run, draws well and genuine winning chance.
(7) Tavs opening fave but you couldn’t go near off the last run flop that was put down to firm track, could get same here?
They aren’t mine but have to respect B.Baker with horses in Qld of a summer.
Selections:
(8) Need Some Luck
(12) Zaszou
(9) Tuned
Suggested Bets: Win bet (8) Need Some Luck and smaller (12) Zaszou
Race 9:
Not convinced (4) Silver Wedding is as good as many think but she is better than I initially thought. I like the fact that she has put the head out and gone past them the last couple. Up to 59kg and wide gate are issues.
(3) Kadall is a must in exotics and is well placed, just a dead set non-winner.
(7) Enterprise Attack went to the line with Silver Wedding last time out and meets her 5kg better off at the weights here. Also rock hard fit 4th up and maps well from the gate. Winning chance.
(17) Barrelling is potentially the best horse in the race. The very wide gate creates some questions though. With the light weight I would usually guess Gollan would be positive and push forward but I don’t want to bank on it. This horse seems to improve each time he steps out and if they run from the gate, they must be confident.
Selections:
(7) Enterprise Attack
(17) Barrelling
(4) Silver Wedding
(3) Kadall
Suggested Bets: Split Win bets (7) Enterprise Attack and (17) Barrelling
Race 10:
Good luck if alive in the quaddie.
Missed kick and wide but (1) Hell was horrible last start. Probably have to forgive that run and his best form is more than good enough to win here. Way better horse when he leads and makes them do the chasing. Has the claim but still got to carry 59.5kg.
(12) Amuseantes is the lightly raced one with upside. Pretty good in initial prep and the return win this time in was excellent. Best L200m of the race and is 1/1 at EF as well.
(16) Altermatum was just a pass mark last start but has some positive here. Winker off and visors on. Drops to 53kg and Williams takes over from Lang riding. Could be the big improver.
Selections:
(1) Hell
(12) Amuseantes
(16) Altermatum
Suggested Bets: Win bet (1) Hell
