Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 5 – Capitalex
Next Best: Race 7 – Pretty Perky
Value Bet: Race 3 – Sandpiper
Turf Talk
- Clear weather conditions are forecast for today’s meeting which should see the track rated at a Good 4.
- The rail remains at the +3m position as it has been at the previous 2 meetings here.
- Give a slight advantage to on speed types in dry conditions at this track.
Key Stars:
- Sarah Rutten’s team has a good record at this track boasting a winning strike rate of 20.7% at a POT return of +48.8%.
- Alysha Warren is riding well here at Balaklava producing a winning strike rate of 20% with a profitable POT of +33.6%.
Race by race overview
Race 1
This race has opened right up now with the scratching of the short priced favourite coming out of the race.
(2) Tyga Taste went to the paddock as a winner and can fire in this fresh, expecting he settles in a positive position which will likely suit at this track today.
(3) Canny Defense comes into this race fresh, he ran 2nd in both of his previous 2 runs and maps well from an inside barrier.
(4) Tenterk ran well 2 starts back to win at Maiden level, he finished some way off the winners last time but should find this easier and has run 2nd in all 3 runs at this track.
(7) Causeweluvadelaide ran a close 3rd when resuming and was flat last start, was only doing her best work late in the run so rising in distance today looks suitable
Selections:
2 Tyga Taste
3 Canny Defense
4 Tenterk
7 Causeweluvadelaide
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
(7) Yarrawizardharry was running on well late last week here at Balaklava, he rises up to the 1600m here today which should suit off the back of that run and he is drawn for a soft run from barrier 1.
(3) Mikki Tango showed improvement last start to finish 2nd when rising to the 1600m for the first time, he maps for a similar run in this today so can be around the mark.
(2) Kikkuli is suited rising up to the 1600m 3rd up today, he should find this an easier level Maiden than his last 2 runs, just needs to overcome a wide barrier.
(11) Largs Legacy ran 2nd in a similar race last start, needs luck from a wide barrier but has speed and can cross the field quickly which will suit.
Selections:
7 Yarrawizardharry
3 Mikki Tango
2 Kikkuli
11 Largs Legacy
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
(4) Sandpiper can re-capture some better form here today in a race that should suit, he has a super record over this track/distance set up (2:2-0-0) and jumping from the low barrier can give her a soft run.
(7) Shadow Hawk is suited over a 2200m trip and will be helped with a light weight on his back.
(1) Eaglelou ran into the placings in a stronger race at Kingscote last start so will be suited dropping in level and a bigger track should suit his get back and run on style.
(5) A Big Chance jumps up in distance today which will suit and he can get a soft run from barrier 3.
Selections:
4 Sandpiper
7 Shadow Hawk
1 Eaglelou
5 A Big Chance
Suggested Bet: 4 Sandpiper (Each Way)
Race 4
(6) Dashing Double makes his debut for a new stable, his form back in NSW rates highly in this field and this appears a winnable kick off point for his career in a new state.
(10) Maysoonfly has showed improvement across her 2 career starts, a small jump in distance will suit and she maps for a favourable run.
(13) Fear The Zou was doing her best work late in a stronger Maiden at Morphettville last start. She can be an improver in an easier race and has speed so can race prominently.
(12) Settle Petal was super when on debut here recently, she may have improvement to give fitter 2nd up now and rising in distance but will need to overcome a wide barrier.
Selections:
6 Dashing Double
10 Maysoonfly
13 Fear The Zou
12 Settle Petal
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5
(1) Capitalex makes his debut for a new team today, he has only won the 1 race so far into his career but has been competitive in stronger races and looks likely to find this the easiest race he has seen for some time, should be prominent in the run from an inside barrier and with a light weight.
(2) Éclair Vitality is on the quick back up having run half a length off the winner last week when getting caught late having raced on speed, dropping back to the 1050m trip should suit based off that performance.
(7) Zoutrail is fitter 2nd up into this today, she can race on speed and was a winner 2nd up last prep.
(3) Aztec Dancer was out classed in her last start at Morphettville but expecting she will be a likely improver coming back in grade today. Drawn out wide but likely gets back anyway and will want an even track.
Selections:
1 Capitalex
2 Éclair Vitality
7 Zoutrail
3 Aztec Dancer
Suggested Bet: 1 Capitalex (Win)
Race 6
(4) Never Surrender hasn’t shown a great deal so far this prep but has scope to improve down in grade here today and likely to get a much softer run than what he got from a wide barrier last time.
(5) Miss Boom won easily as a short priced runner last start to break her maiden status, she only takes a small jump up in level today and could progress.
(2) Copper Bullet was well supported in a stronger race last weekend but never really got going, he is on the quick back up here and will be better suited down in grade.
(1) Arc De Puissance ran within half of a length to the winner in a race here last week, this is a similar set up and he will be fitter 3rd up now.
Selections:
4 Never Surrender
5 Miss Boom
2 Copper Bullet
1 Arc De Puissance
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
(5) Pretty Perky was well supported to win his maiden last time out and did so in easy fashion, needs to take a step up in level but appreciated the 1600m trip and gets an ideal run again so should be suited.
(3) Duo Perna has placed in 2 of 3 starts so far this prep and looks suited rising to the 1600m trip now at this point of his prep.
(8) Think Tank is fresh and may have improvement to come when over more ground but does have a good turn of foot late and should be hitting the line strongly.
(9) Enlist hasn’t been outstanding recently but he has had good success at this track previously and can bounce back with luck from the wide barrier.
Selections:
5 Pretty Perky
3 Duo Perna
8 Think Tank
9 Enlist
Suggested Bet: 5 Pretty Perky (Win)
