Shaun Beirne isn’t changing a thing.
The Bet Legends bookmaker has made a habit of taking on the horses punters want to be with, and more often than not lately, he’s been the one smiling at the end of the day.
After another round of well-backed runners going under, Beirne is back in the ring on Wednesday, this time zeroing in on races at Warwick Farm and Sandown where he thinks the market might have a few things wrong.
And as always, he’s more than happy to put his money where his mouth is and offer top odds at Betlegends.com.au.
Big Red Tequila – Warwick Farm r5
Beirne expects plenty of attention to come for Big Red Tequila ($2.30 favourite), but he’s not convinced the setup is as straightforward as punters think.
“Big Red Tequila is rock hard fit now, fourth-up and he’s won three of his past four, so I understand why people are gravitating to him,” Beirne said.
“But from that 1100-metre chute start, mapping to be back on the inside isn’t ideal. That can be a tricky spot from there, especially if things don’t open up at the right time.”
Beirne also expects the race shape to work against those needing tempo.
“I don’t see a strong pace on paper. Flightcrew should be able to roll across and lead pretty comfortably, which could make it hard for anything buried away to build momentum.”
Instead, he’s wary of a couple at bigger odds.
“There are some value runners that make this more interesting than the market suggests. Useapin is coming back from Saturday grade and that always catches my eye in this sort of race.”
“And Thames is first-up but trialled well. If they’re getting off the fence and into the middle of the track late, he’s the sort who could be charging home over the top of them.”
Watersports – Sandown r8
“I’ve got this race more open than the betting says. I’m not convinced Watersports ($2.25) should be favourite,” he said.
“The ratings have been consistently okay, but there was a spike two runs ago at Cranbourne and then a bit of a regression last start. That makes me wary about taking a short price.”
With genuine tempo expected, Beirne sees the race setting up for a proper contest.
“There looks to be good pace here, which should give everything its chance, especially those settling just off the speed.”
One runner he expects to be prominent is Sirius Statement.
“He should roll forward and land in a nice spot just off the pace. I wouldn’t say the market has the top few completely the wrong way around, but I do think they should be much closer together in the betting than they are now.”
For Beirne, that’s exactly the kind of profile he likes.
“When the market gets a bit lopsided in races that are actually pretty even, that’s where we’re happy to stand up and take a set. Hopefully we can keep the run going and make the punters earn it again.”
Head over to betlegends.com.au to get top odds about either of these runners, or cop the tips from Beirne and bet around the favourites!
