There hasn’t been a meeting at Bairnsdale since March so expect the track to be relatively even across. The track raced well in recent meetings but it’s rarely a disadvantage to be up nearer the speed and scouting the rail. Big ten-race card so the track may chop out a bit as the meeting goes on.
Race 2 – Intriguing State EW @$26/Ring My Bell ($4.60)
Think a few of the favoured runners have chinks here: Blue Akoya (poor last start, hasn’t done much), New Character (trialled OK but plain on debut) and Brazen Queen (trials just fair) – so happy to work around this trio.
Intriguing State hasn’t been seen for 60 weeks and he’s a 6YO gelding that has had just three starts, so clearly there’s been issues. However, he trialled very well with a heavyweight jockey on board at Traralgon and then backed that up with another strong outing at Pakenham. He should jump right on speed form gate one and can give a sight at big odds.
Ring My Bell has trialled up nicely for the Freedman team. This filly was OK in just one run last campaign and she strikes a very winnable race first up. Drawn to get a nice run, she should be right in the finish.
Race 3 – Auto Max EW @ $34/$7 (more to place)
Look, Zwasp should get an overdue maiden win, but he’s not a reliable commodity and I thought three runs last campaign were ‘fair’ at best. He has trialled nicely and should get a reasonable run, but I couldn’t take $1.75 with stolen money.
Having something EW, more the place, on Automax. This gelding was OK first up last campaign when racing without much luck in a strong Future Stars heat at Pakenham and then he was galloped on at his only other run last campaign. He moved very nicely to the line in a recent Pakenham jump-out and with even luck from the gate in a race lacking depth, I think he can figure in the finish at big odds.
Race 4 – Backing Doc’s Nipper ($12) & Well I’ll Be ($7)
Celine Gaudray has been on board for two of Doc’s Nipper’s three jump-outs and those two have clearly been his best. Think he can sit in the first two in running on debut and he’s certainly shown enough talent to be competitive on debut.
Well I’ll Be hasn’t been let off the chain in his jump-outs but he has moved well each time he has stepped out and looks to have a turn-of-foot. Like the low draw and Froggy Newitt rides these tight-turning tracks better than almost anyone. John Price is a very astute trainer when it comes to getting debutantes ready to win on debut.
Race 5 – Backing Sea Poem ($7) and Dollar Shot ($2.60)
Think this is a race in two. Sea Poem disappointed in a much stronger race first-up at Swan Hill but loved her recent trial at Werribee and think she can bounce back with Celine Gaudray jumping on. Dollar Shot produced the best last 200m split of the meeting at Sandown first up and she is ideally drawn here – she deserves to be favourite.
Race 7 – Talk Of Dakota ($10), smaller Cryptic Gem ($4.20)
Talk Of Dakota has been plagued by breathing issues but she looks to have prepped up well for the new stable and interestingly the tongue-tie comes off. She has the speed to lead this lot and Hannah Edgeley has got to know her well in those recent jump-outs. Her best is better than this very moderate field and think she is over the odds.
Cryptic Gem has trialled up nicely for this return. She is a lightly-raced daughter of All Too Hard with a bit of upside and with in the in-form Brad Rawiller on board should be afforded a reasonable run in transit. She will be strong while many are weakening.
Full Tips:
R1 – 4,5,7,6 (Back 4, tiny 5 at odds)
R2 – 3,14,5,9 (Backing 3 EW, something 14 as well)
R3 – 2,11,7,12 (Something 1×3 EW 2)
R4 – 6,2,7,11 (Backing 2 and 6 on debut)
R5 – 8,7,5,15 (Backing 7 and 8 – keen)
R6 – 4,5,9,7
R7 – 12,5,9,11
R8 – 5,2,3,1
R9 – 1,11,5,4
R10 – 1,5,17,3 (Happy to wait and see how track plays, if horses can make ground then Red on Red awfully hard to beat)
