Betsy’s Best
| Race | No. | Horse | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 4 | Rafique | Impressed in Cranbourne jump-outs. Seems big odds at 20/1. |
| 2 | 12 | On The Prowl | Has a nice turn-of-foot. 1400m suits. Over the odds at 20/1 + |
| 3 | 6 | Rasp | Will get back, but if horses can male ground he will win. |
Turf Talk
- Benalla struggles to drain so it doesn’t race over winter, hence this is the first meeting since April 14.
- Interesting that they’ve put the rail out 3m form the 800-400m mark despite having not raced for so long.
- The track is very well laid out, with long runs down the back straight form the 1200, 1400 and 1600m start points before they start turning.
- Default position heading into any Benalla meeting is those on speed will unlikely be disadvantaged.
Stats That Matter:
- Leon Corstens and Will Larkin have a great record at Benalla, striking at 25%.
- Archie Alexander is another that goes well at this track, going at 25.5%.
- Touched on this a lot recently, but Ethan Brown is the hot hoop at then meeting with 24 winners from his last 100 rides. He also goes at 30% here at Benalla.
The Overview:
Race 2 No.4 Rafique ($19 at Bet365) & No.12 On The Prowl ($23 at Bet365)
(4) Rafique is a gelding that impressed me with his Cranbourne jump-out win on August 25. He showed a good turn of foot over the 1000m and looks like a horse that will be suited to further than 1200m in time. The knock is he’s only had the one jump-out this time in, but the upside is we are getting $19 to find out! More than happy to have something on at that price.
(12) On The Prowl is similarly on debut and also has a solid turn of foot. Loved how strong he was through the line in his Cranbourne jump-out on August 4, and I thought he was solid enough in his most recent effort. Maps well on debut and is a huge price at $23.
Suggested bet – This isn’t a strong race. Backing the debutantes: (4) Rafique and (12) On The Prowl at big prices.
Race 3 No.6 Rasp (caveat – check horses can make ground in the first two races)
Provided horses can make ground, then (6) Rasp looks a borderline moral. He was huge against a savage on-pace bias at Bendigo last start, and that came on the back of excellent runs at Warwick Farm, Bendigo (again) and Ballarat. Now, one might coin him a bit of a ‘nonny’ (non-winner), but he’s had circumstances against him in most runs (as backmarkers often do!). This is easily the weakest race he has struck; all things being equal: he wins.
Suggested bet – Provided horses can make ground, anything $1.70+ about (6) Rasp appeals.
