Summary of Best Bets:
Race 5 No.5 Thailess (Value) – Maps for a positive run to the inside and is suited slightly down in grade.
Race 7 No.5 Lario (Best) – Undefeated at this track and reaches peak fitness third-up.
Race 8 No.1 Hot Digity Boom – Running well in stronger races and suited back to this level.
Turf Talk:
- The rail pushes out from its position at the last meeting and will be +8m from the 1700m to the 800m, out 9m for the remainder.
- Clear weather is forecast for race day and the lead-up, so the track is expected to present as a Good 4. An upgrade to a Good 3 wouldn’t surprise given the previous four meetings.
- In similar recent conditions, it has been an advantage to settle in a forward position.
Stats that matter:
- Ciaron Maher’s stable is flying ahead of the autumn, producing 21 winners from the last 100 starters at a POT of +26.2%.
- Fred Kersley has been profitable for punters, riding 17 winners from his last 100 rides at a POT of +38%. He has four rides at this meeting.
Race by race overview
Race 5:
THAILESS represents good value coming back slightly in distance and dropping in grade from his most recent start. Barrier 2 should see him land in a favourable on-speed position and with a solid fitness base he looks well placed to be fighting this out at odds. VIASAIN from the in-form McArdle stable shapes as the main danger, while ARABELLA STAR is racing well but may be forced to settle back in the run.
Selections:
(5) Thailess
(3) Viasain
(9) Arabella Star
(4) Surprisatic
Suggested Bet: (5) Thailess (Each-way)
Race 7:
LARIO clearly enjoys racing at Geelong, winning both of his starts at the track including a last-start victory here. He comes into this third-up and stays at the same distance, suggesting a very similar setup. With a positive map and the ability to settle in a prominent position, he looks hard to beat again. ALL BUSINESS, DIAMOND GUST and RIPROAR appear the main dangers.
Selections:
(5) Lario
(9) All Business
(10) Diamond Gust
(4) Riproar
Suggested Bet: (5) Lario (Win)
Race 8:
HOT DIGITY BOOM will appreciate an even track as he is a runner who typically gets back in the field. His two runs this preparation have rated well and he now drops in grade. Third-up, he has the scope to produce a peak performance and if the race is run to suit, he should be strong late. There looks to be genuine speed engaged, which should help set the race up for his closing style. ASAKURA, UNTAPPED and CENTENNIAL PARK profile as the key dangers.
Selections:
(1) Hot Digity Boom
(11) Asakura
(5) Untapped
(2) Centennial Park
Suggested Bet: (1) Hot Digity Boom (Win)
