Turf Talk:
- Rail is out 8m, having been out 4m at the last meeting where the track raced pretty well.
- The most recent +8m meeting was on November 27 and horses could make ground with the right run.
- Being a tight-turning track, it’s rarely a disadvantage to be on speed, but I am expecting a relatively fair deck.
Race 1
Interesting race. Wonder if most of these would be better suited at 1000m on debut than 1200m? But anyway, here we are.
Divine Dot is a brilliant gate horse and I’d expect her to find the front. She was given a solid send-along in her recent Balnarring jump-out and won the heat well, running fast time for the morning. Like everything she has done ahead of this debut and if she can get the 1200m then she’s the horse to beat.
At $2.70, happy to back Divine Dot, I’d have her odds on at 1000m, so factoring in the distance query more than happy to take the price.
Suggest bet: Backing Divine Dot
Race 2
Keen on Aqua Storm here. He was heavily backed on debut having jumped-out very well prior but he probably didn’t get Luke Nolen’s best steer; that, or the tactics weren’t A1. He was good late behind Angiemarie in that race – a stronger race than what he contests here. He’s drawn to hold a spot handy to the speed, the extra 1000m is ideal and he gets onto a firm deck. A lot to like and I have him marked ‘in the red’.
Gold Decree is too close to Aqua Storm in the market at $3, in my humble opinion. Maybe the blinkers going on will see some improvement, but he had every possible hope last time out at Cranbourne.
Suggested bet: With even luck in running, think Aqua Storm will be winning.
Race 3
Can’t believe the price of Silver Bullet. Have to be forgiving of the debut at Sale last campaign where he struck a wet track, drifted back and just had nothing go right. He has jumped-out really well ahead of this return to the track and I’d expect him to press forward the way he has been jumping in prep work.
Veomas was terrific from the tail first-up at Cranbourne, but he does map to again spot them a decent start and I do think he wants further than 1200m. Hence, at the short quote, have to bet around him.
Our Justify is in a similar boat. Her debut run at this track and trip was excellent, but the form out of the race is suspect and she again maps sticky. Can win, but $2.90 is short enough.
Suggested bet: Working around the favourites. Backing Silver Bullet.
